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TXST

Texas State 17 at Arkansas State 55

ARST
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:53 · Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds, downed at the ArkSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior+6.4Home team on offense+36.1Score differential+31.2Garbage-time factor+10.5Blowout margin+16.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:17: Tyler Jones pass intercepted for a TD Money Hunter return for 99 yds for a TD, (JD Houston PAT MISSED) — ARST win probability +3.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:38: C.J. Best run for 12 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK) — TXST win probability +3.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:12: Warren Wand run for 6 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:53: Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 7 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 8:15: Lumi Kaba 46 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +1.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:29TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:13ARST 4th & 4 at TXST 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:38ARST 4th & 3 at TXST 42, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:52TXST 4th & 10 at ARST 28, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00TXST 4th & 21 at ARST 21, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:46TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 29, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:15TXST 4th & 14 at ARST 29, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:24ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 30, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 13, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:05ARST 4th & 4 at TXST 21, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:53TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:29ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:37ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:17ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:38TXST Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:12ARST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:53ARST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:31ARST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:29TXST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:01ARST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:25ARST Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3192% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
91.9%
Michael Gordon run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
91.9%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
91.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
91.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 10 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
91.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
91.9%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+19
91.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 19 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
91.9%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 24
0
91.9%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+13
91.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 13 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
91.9%
Michael Gordon run for 8 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
91.5%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.2%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
91.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 4 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
91.3%
Lumi Kaba punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:2791% → 92%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
91.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
91.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+29
91.2%
Michael Gordon run for 29 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
92.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 32 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
91.7%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
91.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
91.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Tyler SiudzinskiSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+3
91.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 3 yds to the TexSt 42 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.7%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the TexSt 46 TEXAS STATE Penalty, HL (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 6:13
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
92.1%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
92.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 10 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
92.2%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
92.2%
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
92.0%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
92.2%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+6
92.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
92.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6INT TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:569% → 6%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
91.4%
C.J. Best run for 9 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+12
91.3%
C.J. Best run for 12 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
91.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 8 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
91.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
91.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Siudzinski for 19 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
90.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 12 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
90.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 6 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+3
90.7%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
90.9%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 7
OPP 0
-3
91.1%
PENALTY TXST offside defense 3 yards to the ASU4, PENALTY ASU offside defense 0 yards to the ASU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
91.1%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+99
94.3%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted for a TD Money Hunter return for 99 yds for a TD, (JD Houston PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:395% → 9%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
94.7%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
94.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 4 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+34
94.7%
Tyler Jones run for 34 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
94.3%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
90.6%
C.J. Best run for 12 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2692% → 96%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.0%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
92.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 5 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
92.0%
Michael Gordon run for 17 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
92.5%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 11
50
+9
92.4%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-1
92.3%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+12
92.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 12 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
92.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 18 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
92.4%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
96.4%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9MISSED FG
18 plays · 54 yds · 5:124% → 4%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
95.7%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
95.8%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 6 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+27
95.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 27 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
95.3%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+1
95.5%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+18
95.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 18 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
94.9%
C.J. Best run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-2
94.9%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
95.4%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+23
95.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 23 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.2%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-11
95.2%
Tyler Jones sacked by Austin Copeland for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-5
96.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
0
96.1%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
96.4%
Lumi Kaba 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chris OdomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
96.6%
Tyler Siudzinski run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
96.7%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
96.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Tryston Mizerak) to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-5
96.7%
Tyler Jones sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 18 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Austin Copeland , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4098% → 99%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
97.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+10
97.5%
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.5%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the TexSt 2Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
97.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 7 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
99.3%
Connor White pass complete to Brandon Smith for 4 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-1
99.3%
Tyler Siudzinski run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Lumi Kaba punt for 46 yds , JD McKissic returns for no gain to the ArkSt 25 JD McKissic fumbled, recovered by TexSt Stephan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:391% → 2%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.4%
Connor White pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.4%
Connor White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-5
99.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Adrian Bellard) to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-1
99.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
97.7%
Lumi Kaba 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:3398% → 100%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
97.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.7%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
97.7%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-4
97.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+36
98.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 36 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
98.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 16 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
98.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.5%
Connor White pass incomplete to Tyler SiudzinskiSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
99.5%
Tyler Siudzinski run for no gain to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+8
99.5%
Connor White pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 8 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+15
99.5%
Kaba, Lumi punt 28 yards to the TXST46, downed, PENALTY ASU roughing the kicker (Wand, Warren) 15 yards to the TXST33, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
99.5%
Connor White pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 14 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
99.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for no gain to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Connor White pass intercepted Rocky Hayes return for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Dondre Elvoid for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+2
99.8%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+13
99.7%
Michael Gordon run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 67 yds, downed at the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:210% → 0%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
99.8%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 1 yd to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+12
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 12 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.8%
Connor White run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+4
99.8%
Connor White run for 4 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Connor White pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 18
-5
99.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
99.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.8%
JD McKissic run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-1
99.8%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+18
99.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 18 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
99.8%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
99.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
99.9%
JD Houston 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:360% → 1%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
99.9%
Connor White run for 19 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.9%
Nick Bingham run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+17
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to C.J. Best for 17 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Nick Bingham run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Connor White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+29
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 29 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.0%
Nick Bingham run for 10 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.6%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+9
99.6%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.6%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+48
99.9%
Johnston White run for 48 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Connor White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Connor White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
99.9%
Nick Bingham run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds, downed at the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Rocky Hayes run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-5
99.9%
Tabary, James pass complete to Stowers, S. for 5 yards to the ASU48 (Blades, Tyler), PENALTY ASU illegal formation 5 yards to the ASU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+58
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for 58 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Darion Griswold run for 4 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+3
100.0%
Nick Bingham run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+9
100.0%
Connor White pass complete to C.J. Best for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
100.0%
Connor White sacked by Johnston White for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:12
Warren Wand run for 6 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
+4
TD · Q2 12:17
Tyler Jones pass intercepted for a TD Money Hunter return for 99 yds for a TD, (JD Houston PAT MISSED)
+3.8
TD · Q2 9:38
C.J. Best run for 12 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com