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ARST

Arkansas State 52 at New Mexico State 28

NMSU
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:16 · Anthony Torres punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 73 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior−26.8Home team on offense−19.4Score differential−9.4Garbage-time factor−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:44: Johnston White run for 18 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +3.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:19: Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 12 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:49: Michael Gordon run for 2 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +4.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:50: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 57 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +2.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:33: Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 60 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:28NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35ARST 4th & 1 at NMSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:19NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:15ARST 4th & 5 at NMSU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:49NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:15ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 27, up 14
    Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:16NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03ARST 4th & 9 at NMSU 33, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:14NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:52ARST 4th & 8 at NMSU 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:28ARST 4th & 1 at NMSU 5, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:23NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 39, down 24
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:14NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 20, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:21ARST 4th & 6 at NMSU 45, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:05NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 49, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:38ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 11, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:01NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:28ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:27ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:44ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:19NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:49ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:50ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:33NMSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:41ARST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:11NMSU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5912% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
12.1%
Andrew Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
12.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
12.1%
Andrew Allen run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
12.1%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
12.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+5
12.1%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-5
12.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+21
12.1%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 21 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
12.1%
Andrew Allen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+46
14.1%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 46 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3386% → 86%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
13.9%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
13.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 75 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
13.7%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
13.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
13.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
13.5%
Anthony Torres punt for 54 yds, downed at the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
18 plays · 83 yds · 6:0886% → 86%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
14.5%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
14.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+13
14.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 13 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
14.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+10
14.3%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
14.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
14.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 8 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
14.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for no gain to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
14.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
14.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
14.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 6 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
14.1%
JD McKissic run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
14.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
14.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
14.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
14.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 9 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+10
16.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 10 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
14.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
15.0%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
15.0%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-5
14.7%
Andrew Allen sacked by Darrius Rosser for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
14.6%
Anthony Torres punt for 39 yds, downed at the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
14.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
14.6%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
14.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
14.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 39 yds, downed at the NMxSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
15.2%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
15.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18 Larry Rose III fumbled, forced by Xavier Woodson-Luster, recovered by ArkSt Caleb CastonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
12.3%
Johnston White run for 18 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:2513% → 18%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.9%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
12.8%
Andrew Allen run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
13.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 13 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
13.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
13.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
13.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Teldrick Morgan) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
13.4%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
13.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+15
13.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 15 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
13.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Chris Humes) to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
17.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 12 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:3084% → 89%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
16.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
15.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Tres Houston) to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 17
OWN 28
-4
16.2%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 21
OWN 24
+16
16.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 16 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+17
15.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 17 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
15.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
15.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
15.2%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
15.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+14
15.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 14 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
15.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+3
15.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
15.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
15.5%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Mays, Booker (Rose, Winston), PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Rose, Winston) 5 yards to the NMSU2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.5%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
12.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
12.4%
Rayvean Moore run for no gain to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
12.3%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
12.3%
Anthony Torres punt for 68 yds, downed at the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
12.5%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+9
12.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 9 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
12.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
12.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 46 yds, downed at the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3613% → 8%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
12.5%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
12.4%
Andrew Allen run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-7
12.6%
Andrew Allen sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+73
8.4%
Anthony Torres punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 73 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 57 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
8.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+37
8.9%
Larry Rose III run for 37 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
9.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 12 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
9.7%
Jermichael Selders run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+11
9.7%
Andrew Allen pass intercepted Xavier Woodson-Luster return for 11 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:4493% → 94%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
7.1%
Michael Gordon run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
7.0%
Johnston White run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
6.7%
Johnston White run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
6.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-6
6.4%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
6.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for no gain to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 9
OPP 33
0
6.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon Paschal, broken up by Derek IbekweSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
6.4%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
6.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
6.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
6.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 42 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for no gain to the NMxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
7.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
7.7%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-2
7.8%
Andrew Allen sacked by Chase Robison for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 14:14
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+32
7.6%
Anthony Torres punt for 32 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:0794% → 97%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
6.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+19
6.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 19 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
5.8%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Kourtland Busby for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+57
2.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 57 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 96 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
7.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 60 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:4195% → 97%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
5.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
50
0
4.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
50
-10
4.7%
White, Johnston rush for 5 yards to the NMSU45 (Busby, K.;Butler, Rodney), PENALTY ASU holding (Leapheart, W.) 10 yards to the ASU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 20
OWN 40
0
4.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+29
4.9%
Michael Gordon run for 29 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
4.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
4.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
4.7%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
4.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
3.5%
JD Houston 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.9%
Andrew Allen pass intercepted Blaise Taylor return for no gain to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1597% → 98%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
3.3%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+37
3.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 37 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
3.1%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+9
3.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 9 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
3.0%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-5
3.0%
Knighten, Fredi pass complete to Paschal, Dijon for 5 yards to the NMSU2, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NMSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
3.0%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
3.1%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-1
1.8%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+27
3.1%
Larry Rose III run for 27 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
3.2%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
3.2%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
3.3%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+30
3.3%
Anthony Torres punt for 43 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 30 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:5599% → 99%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
1.5%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+4
1.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
1.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to JD McKissicSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
1.5%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+7
1.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 7 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
1.5%
Logan Moragne run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+6
1.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 6 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
1.2%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Paschal, Dijon (Wright, Jaden), PENALTY NMSU personal foul (Wright, Jaden) 8 yards to the NMSU8, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
1.2%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
1.2%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Justin Allen return for 2 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
2.4%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+3
2.4%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+2
2.4%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+9
2.4%
Anthony Torres punt for 38 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
1.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Justin Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 14
OWN 47
0
1.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to JD McKissicSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+8
1.1%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+43
1.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds, downed at the NMxSt 4 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (2 Yards) to the NMxSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27INT TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:152% → 0%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
1.8%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+5
1.7%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+13
1.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 13 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
1.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
1.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 4 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
1.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 6 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
1.9%
Jeanty, Nick pass incomplete to Caldwell, Royce (Brown, Cody), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Brown, Cody) 15 yards to the NMSU49, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+66
0.2%
Nick Jeanty pass intercepted for a TD Quanterio Heath return for 66 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28PUNT
13 plays · 24 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
0.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
0.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
0.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 5 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
0.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
0.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
0.2%
Selders, J rush for 3 yards to the ASU48 (Woodson-Luster), PENALTY NMSU holding (Folasa-Lutui, I) 10 yards to the NMSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+1
0.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 19
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+9
0.1%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Anthony Torres punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
0.2%
Logan Moragne run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-5
0.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+1
0.2%
Logan Moragne run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
0.2%
Logan Moragne run for no gain to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
0.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 43 yds, downed at the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:210% → 1%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
0.1%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 37 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
1.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 17 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.4%
Johnston White run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
0.4%
Logan Moragne run for 24 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 12
OPP 38
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:33
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 60 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 13:19
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 12 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 8:49
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com