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TROY

Troy 21 at Georgia State 31

GAST
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2015 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:27 · Jed Solomon 27 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Home team on offense+1.9Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Pregame prior+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:52: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 58 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +9.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:31: Glenn Smith run for 39 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +8.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:04: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 46 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +12.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:45: Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD TROY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:41: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 17 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +6.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:04TROY 4th & 13 at GAST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:49TROY 4th & 13 at GAST 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:32GAST 4th & 10 at TROY 37, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:17GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:27TROY 4th & 5 at GAST 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:19TROY 4th & 26 at TROY 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:06TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:52GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:36TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 20 at GAST 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:28TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:45GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:30GAST 4th & 1 at TROY 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:24TROY 4th & 8 at GAST 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:57GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:52TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:31GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:04GAST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:45GAST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:00TROY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:41TROY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
53.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
53.4%
Brandon Silvers run for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
53.4%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
53.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon Burks, broken up by Shawayne LawrenceSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
53.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
53.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 6 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
53.6%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
53.5%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 30 Demarcus Kirk fumbled, recovered by Troy Jalen HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3MISSED FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2047% → 46%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
53.3%
Teddy Ruben pass complete to Brandon Silvers for 9 yds to the GeoSt 21 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 11
OPP 31
0
53.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel Thompson, broken up by Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-2
53.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 13
OPP 33
0
53.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John Johnson, broken up by Mackendy CheridorSimilar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
53.9%
Jed Solomon 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:0754% → 58%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
53.9%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+21
53.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 21 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
54.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
54.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+25
54.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 25 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
54.5%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
54.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
57.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 12 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
56.7%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+17
56.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 17 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
56.3%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+5
56.1%
Josh Anderson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
56.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
56.2%
Andre Flakes run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-8
56.2%
Dontreal Pruitt sacked by Michael Shaw for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
57.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
55.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Troy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:5259% → 59%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
58.6%
Taz Bateman run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
58.6%
Penny Hart run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+39
58.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 39 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
59.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
59.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
59.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny Hart, broken up by Demetrius CainSimilar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+54
58.9%
Wil Lutz 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
58.4%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Saleem, Ismail, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Smith, Jerome) 15 yards to the GSU48, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
57.6%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Jerome Smith return for no gain to the GeoSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
59.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 4 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 6
OWN 12
-4
59.2%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Tyler Roberts for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+6
58.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 6 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
58.3%
TEAM punt, downed at the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4043% → 41%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
57.5%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
57.5%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
58.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John Johnson, broken up by Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q2 14:27
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
59.3%
Jed Solomon 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10FUMBLE
11 plays · 80 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.6%
Taz Bateman run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
60.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
60.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 8 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
60.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 7 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jalen Rountree) to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
61.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
62.0%
Taz Bateman run for 6 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Montres KitchensSimilar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+12
61.9%
Taz Bateman run for 12 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
62.1%
Taz Bateman run for 6 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+14
62.1%
Taz Bateman run for 14 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
62.1%
Taz Bateman run for 3 yds Taz Bateman fumbled, forced by Montres Kitchens, recovered by Troy Terris LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:1338% → 48%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
62.0%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
62.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to K.D. EdenfieldSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+13
63.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 13 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
61.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to K.D. EdenfieldSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
61.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 6 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+4
61.3%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+58
51.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 58 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2156% → 67%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.8%
Glenn Smith run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+24
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 24 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
58.2%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
58.2%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+39
67.0%
Glenn Smith run for 39 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · -4 yds · 2:1235% → 32%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
63.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
64.0%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
63.9%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
64.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 11
OWN 36
-15
68.1%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 26
OWN 21
0
68.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14FG
19 plays · 54 yds · 3:0668% → 75%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
68.1%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
69.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+17
67.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 17 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
69.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 7 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+8
69.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 8 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
69.3%
Smith, Glenn rush for no gain to the TROY30 (Lloyd, William), PENALTY GSU holding (Davidson, J.) 10 yards to the TROY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+21
68.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 21 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
69.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 4 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
69.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 7 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
71.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Keith RuckerSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
72.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
71.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
74.1%
Wil Lutz 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 65
OWN 0
0
75.4%
PENALTY GSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY TROY unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.1%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+22
72.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Demetrius Cain) to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
73.5%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Rashad Dillard for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+4
72.6%
Taz Bateman run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+3
71.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 3 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 48
+1
70.4%
Wil Lutz punt for 47 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 1 yd to the Troy 49 TROY Penalty, illegal block (3 Yards) to the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
74.1%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 6
-1
74.3%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 5Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 5
0
75.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 8
OWN 5
0
75.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:3477% → 89%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
76.8%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+46
88.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 46 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
85.4%
Andre Flakes run for 6 yds to the Troy 43 Andre Flakes fumbled, forced by Bobby Baker, recovered by GeoSt Joseph PetersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:4290% → 97%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
89.6%
Arbuckle, Nick pass complete to Boyd, Todd for 4 yards to the TROY39 (Roberts, Tyler), PENALTY GSU holding (Davis, Robert) 10 yards to the GSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+5
89.3%
Taz Bateman run for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+14
90.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 14 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
91.1%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
91.2%
Kyler Neal run for 13 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
91.3%
Kyler Neal run for 7 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+4
91.3%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-6
91.3%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+12
91.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 12 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD TROY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:454% → 9%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+33
96.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 33 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy Ruben, broken up by Shawayne LawrenceSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
95.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 8 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+6
96.0%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
95.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+6
95.6%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Bentley, Jarvis (Smith, Jerome), PENALTY GSU pass interference (Smith, Jerome) 6 yards to the GSU2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.9%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.6%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:0894% → 94%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
93.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 20 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
93.9%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
93.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
94.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
93.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
92.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 18 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
92.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon BurksSimilar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
92.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon Burks, broken up by Shawayne LawrenceSimilar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
93.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
93.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
94.5%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
94.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 4 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+18
94.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 18 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.9%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
94.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-5
94.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-6
94.5%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Tyler Roberts and Seth Calloway for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+12
93.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 44 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 12 yds to the Troy 38 TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Troy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
95.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 7 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
94.9%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to LaMarcus FarmerSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
95.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis Bentley, broken up by Jerome SmithSimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-15
95.3%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 25
OWN 23
+12
95.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 12 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
95.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
96.4%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+2
96.4%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-5
96.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Michael Ivory) to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+9
96.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 9 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+10
96.2%
Wil Lutz punt for 38 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 10 yds to the Troy 32 TROY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:444% → 12%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
96.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 9 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
95.7%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
96.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
95.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+18
96.1%
Brandon Burks run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
95.2%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+17
88.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 17 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:0993% → 97%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
92.9%
Glenn Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+1
92.8%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+8
92.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 8 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
93.0%
Glenn Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+1
95.7%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+4
95.5%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Rucker, Keith, PENALTY TROY offside defense (Sanders, Trevon) 4 yards to the TROY18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
95.5%
Nick Arbuckle run for no gain to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
96.5%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:023% → 3%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
97.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 10 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
96.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 21 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
96.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-5
96.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (Antonio Garcia) to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+7
97.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 7 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
96.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis BentleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
50
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:04
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 46 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+12
TD · Q2 7:52
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 58 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 5:31
Glenn Smith run for 39 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com