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USA

South Alabama 10 at Georgia State 24

GAST
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:17 · Cody Clements sacked by Michael Shaw for 0 yards to the SAlab 40 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, intentional grounding (Cody Clements) to the SAlab 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Home team on offense+27.5Pregame prior+0.3Score differential+9.2Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:22: Nick Arbuckle run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +9.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:14: Wil Lutz 26 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +5.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +20.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49: Tyreis Thomas run for 6 yds to the SAlab 34 — USA win probability +7.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:05: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 11 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +11.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:13GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:06USA 4th & 5 at USA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:08USA 4th & 16 at USA 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:33GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:22USA 4th & 11 at GAST 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:44GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:49USA 4th & 9 at USA 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:14GAST 4th & 9 at USA 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−10.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:14USA 4th & 1 at USA 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:49USA 4th & 6 at USA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:42GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:28USA 4th & 3 at USA 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:17USA 4th & 23 at USA 40, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:17GAST 4th & 16 at GAST 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:13USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:22GAST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:56GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:05GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:4742% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
57.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
57.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+7
57.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 7 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
56.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 17 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
57.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kaleb Ringer) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
57.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
57.1%
Taz Bateman run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+12
57.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 12 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
57.1%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+8
57.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 8 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
57.2%
Taz Bateman run for no gain to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
57.1%
Wil Lutz punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
55.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
55.9%
Cody Clements run for 4 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
55.9%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+13
56.1%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 46 yds , Avery Sweeting returns for 13 yds to the GeoSt 48 GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
55.3%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
55.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
55.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
55.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Magee at the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
54.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
54.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
54.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
50
+7
53.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 7 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-15
53.8%
Terrance Timmons run for no gain to the SAlab 43 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Joseph Scelfo) to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
54.9%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 18Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+2
54.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Tyreis Thomas for 2 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
53.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 3 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+12
53.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 12 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
54.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 8 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
54.8%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
54.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
54.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 3:1147% → 50%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
52.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 5 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
52.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete, broken up by Joseph PetersonSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+9
52.9%
Cody Clements run for 9 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
52.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
52.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald Everett, broken up by Melvin KingSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-5
51.8%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+39
52.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 24 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
49.8%
Dami Ayoola run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
49.6%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald Everett, broken up by Bobby BakerSimilar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+26
50.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 19 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (Bobby Baker) to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
49.7%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
49.7%
Danny Woodson run for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
50.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin Shinn, broken up by Jerome SmithSimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 0
OPP 14
-15
50.4%
Aleem Sunanon pass complete to Josh Magee for 14 yards to the GSU0, clock 14:02, PENALTY USA unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the GSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 0
OPP 29
+47
49.7%
Aleem Sunanon 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
21 plays · 76 yds · 6:2548% → 55%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
48.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 8 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+3
48.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
48.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
49.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+9
48.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 9 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
49.5%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+16
48.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 16 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
49.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+13
49.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 13 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
50.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by E.J. MaySimilar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
50.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 13 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
50.6%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the SAlab 14Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
50.6%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Harden, Donovan, PENALTY USA offside defense (Akeem Lewis) 5 yards to the USA9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
50.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+6
49.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 6 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
50.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by Dondre ChanetSimilar
Q2 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
50.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.1%
Nick Arbuckle run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
15 plays · 39 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
52.0%
Cody Clements rush for no gain to the USA26, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USA holding (Braedon Bowman) 10 yards to the USA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+15
52.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Kevin Kutchera (Peterson, J.), PENALTY GSU pass interference (Peterson, J.) 15 yards to the USA31, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
51.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 6 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
50.8%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+11
50.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
50
+3
49.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
49.9%
Cody Clements pass incomplete, broken up by Tarris BatisteSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+12
50.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 12 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
48.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-5
48.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Cameron Blankenship) to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-2
49.0%
Josh Magee run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
50.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete, broken up by Bruce DukesSimilar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
52.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
50.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
51.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
50.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
49.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 47 yds, downed at the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
49.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 6 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+6
48.3%
Cody Clements run for 6 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
47.9%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
48.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
49.0%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to D.J. VinsonSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
51.2%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
50.3%
Taz Bateman run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FG
17 plays · 63 yds · 6:4152% → 60%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
52.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+13
52.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 13 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
54.7%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 47 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 17
OWN 37
+11
52.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-8
55.1%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Akeem Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+15
51.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 15 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
55.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 4 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
55.6%
Kyler Neal run for 9 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
56.7%
Taz Bateman run for 4 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
56.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+23
55.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 23 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Keith RuckerSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 0
OPP 4
-5
53.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 9Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
59.5%
Wil Lutz 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.7%
Cody Clements run for no gain to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.9%
Cody Clements run for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
53.5%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
55.5%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 45 yds , Donovan Harden returns for 1 yd to the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 6:1158% → 84%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
57.9%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
58.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+21
57.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
50
+7
61.9%
Glenn Smith run for 7 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-1
62.4%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
61.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
62.3%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+4
62.3%
Glenn Smith run for 4 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+31
61.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 31 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.5%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 2Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.4%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
75.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 6 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+7
74.0%
Cody Clements run for 7 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
74.4%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
73.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
74.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald Everett, broken up by Bryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
76.7%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:2283% → 95%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
83.2%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-5
83.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Taylor Evans) to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
82.9%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+12
82.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 12 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
83.5%
Glenn Smith run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
84.9%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+15
85.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 15 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
85.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+30
84.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 30 yds to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 11 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18INT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
92.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 14 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
91.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 9 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
90.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
91.1%
Tyreis Thomas run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
90.4%
Cody Clements run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
91.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
90.8%
Cody Clements run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+20
91.1%
Cody Clements pass intercepted Tarris Batiste return for 5 yds to the GeoSt 32 GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5096% → 97%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
96.1%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+4
96.1%
Glenn Smith run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
97.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Jeremy ReavesSimilar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
96.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 14 yds · 2:113% → 2%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
97.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 5 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+9
96.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 9 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.9%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Josh Magee, broken up by Jerome SmithSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
96.9%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+7
96.9%
Cody Clements run for 7 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+6
96.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 6 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.8%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny Woodson, broken up by Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
96.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-15
97.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Josh Magee SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Chris May) to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 23
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Cody Clements sacked by Michael Shaw for 0 yards to the SAlab 40 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, intentional grounding (Cody Clements) to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
98.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Joseph Peterson) to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-3
98.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 14
OWN 41
-2
98.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 16
OWN 39
0
97.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 57 yds, downed at the SAlab 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
97.9%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+17
97.9%
Dami Ayoola run for 17 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:56
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+20.5
TD · Q4 9:05
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 11 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 7:22
Nick Arbuckle run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com