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GAST

Georgia State 41 at Texas State 19

TXST
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:43 · Lumi Kaba punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−18.3Score differential−10.5Garbage-time factor−5.3Pregame prior+6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:59: Robert Lowe run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TXST win probability +7.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:41: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 8 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +6.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:09: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 4 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +11.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:12: Wil Lutz 42 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +15.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:01: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 17 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +12.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 12:39TXST 4th & 10 at GAST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37TXST 4th & 6 at GAST 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:37GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:23TXST 4th & 14 at GAST 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at GAST 7, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−1.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:32TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:39TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 17, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:12GAST 4th & 8 at TXST 25, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−2.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:43TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 27, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:51TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 26, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:09GAST 4th & 2 at TXST 45, up 26
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at GAST 27, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    -1.4%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:45GAST 4th & 8 at TXST 27, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:45TXST 4th & 5 at GAST 44, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:29GAST 4th & 2 at TXST 46, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:23TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 28, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:39GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 30, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 0 of 2GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:09GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:14GAST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:59TXST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:41GAST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:09GAST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:01GAST Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:03TXST Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:2164% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
63.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 12 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
63.6%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
63.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 5 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
63.6%
Tyler Jones run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
63.6%
C.J. Best run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
63.6%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
63.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
63.6%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
63.7%
Lumi Kaba 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3036% → 38%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
63.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 44 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
63.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Michael Ivory) to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 15
OPP 36
-2
63.6%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 17
OPP 38
-5
63.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Jah-Mai Davidson) to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 22
OPP 43
+9
63.6%
Arbuckle, Nick slant pass incomplete to Davis, Robert (McDowell, Brandon), PENALTY TXST pass interference (McDowell, Brandon) 9 yards to the TXST34, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
62.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 34 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:3263% → 62%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
62.8%
Robert Lowe run for 11 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
63.0%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
63.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+15
62.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 15 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
63.3%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+11
63.3%
Robert Lowe run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
63.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
63.4%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+4
63.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 4 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
62.3%
Lumi Kaba 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
61.8%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
61.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Brandon McDowellSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
62.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by David MimsSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
62.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 55 yds, downed at the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:1862% → 61%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
61.5%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
61.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 11 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
61.9%
Jones, Tyler post pass incomplete to Smith, Brandon, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Sullivan, Chandon) 15 yards to the GSU47, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
62.5%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+14
62.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 14 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
62.9%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
62.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Lawrence White, broken up by Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-5
62.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Brandon Smith) to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
61.8%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+50
61.4%
Lumi Kaba 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0938% → 45%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
62.4%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
62.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+14
63.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 14 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
62.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+25
61.9%
Nick Arbuckle run for 25 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
61.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+20
61.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 20 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.1%
Taz Bateman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1556% → 65%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
56.4%
C.J. Best run for 16 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
57.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 29 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
58.7%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
58.5%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
58.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 4 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
57.7%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+3
57.1%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.8%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1839% → 48%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+45
61.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 45 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
58.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 24 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
58.7%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
52.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 8 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
53.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 7 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-10
53.9%
Lowe, Robert rush over left tackle for 2 yards to the TXST35 (Payne, Trey), PENALTY TXST holding (Sarabia, Brandon) 10 yards to the TXST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
53.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+8
52.5%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
52.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10INT
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:0047% → 49%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+32
53.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 32 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
50.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 34 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
50.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Stephan Johnson return for no gain to the TexSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
51.0%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
51.1%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+4
50.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 4 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
50.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds , Donovan Harden returns for no gain to the GeoSt 30 Donovan Harden fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Donovan HardenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:3752% → 67%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
47.8%
Glenn Smith run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
50
+17
46.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 17 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
45.5%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+14
45.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 14 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
45.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 6 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+7
45.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 7 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 4 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0039% → 41%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
39.2%
Tyler Jones run for 19 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
41.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
41.2%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Chandon Sullivan return for no gain to the GeoSt 45 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:0162% → 79%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
38.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+10
38.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
37.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 19 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
36.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
35.6%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Marcus Dallas Jr. for 0 yards to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+12
36.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 12 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
35.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
35.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 2 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
36.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Taz BatemanSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
20.6%
Wil Lutz 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0828% → 27%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
27.9%
Robert Lowe run for 11 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
26.9%
Kaba, Lumi kickoff 59 yards to the GSU6, Greene, Marquan return to the GSU13 (Schrade, Gabe), PENALTY TXST offside 5 yards to the TXST30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16INT
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:0079% → 81%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+48
20.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 48 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
19.3%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
19.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Stephan Johnson return for no gain to the TexSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
24.7%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+8
24.6%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
25.2%
Tyler Jones run for 14 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
25.5%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
25.1%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 11
OWN 29
-2
24.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
24.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:4384% → 97%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
16.2%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+10
16.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
15.5%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
15.5%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
15.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 10 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
15.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-2
15.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+15
15.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 15 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
15.0%
Taz Bateman run for 6 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+7
14.6%
Taz Bateman run for 7 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
2.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 17 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
3.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
3.5%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
3.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+15
3.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 65 yds , Avery Sweeting returns for 15 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
2.6%
Taz Bateman run for 23 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
2.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Michael Ivory) to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+9
2.5%
Taz Bateman run for 9 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
2.5%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
2.3%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Wil Lutz punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 53 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
2.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
2.1%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+13
2.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 13 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
2.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 5 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
2.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
2.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 7 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+9
2.2%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST down C.J. Best for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
2.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun Mercer, broken up by Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
2.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+9
2.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 9 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
2.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan Garrey, broken up by Bobby BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:2399% → 100%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
1.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kam Myers for 5 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-5
1.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Bill Teknipp) to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
1.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+39
1.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 39 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
1.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
0.6%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
0.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Kam MyersSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
0.5%
Wil Lutz 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 26 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
0.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
0.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
0.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+1
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Antreal Allen return for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
0.3%
Marquan Greene run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
0.3%
Marquan Greene run for 6 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+2
0.3%
Marquan Greene run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Emiere Scaife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
0.4%
Wil Lutz punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. Best, broken up by Bryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
0.2%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
0.2%
Tyler Jones sacked by Tanner Strickland and David Huey for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 18
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan Garrey, broken up by Dartez JacobsSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Lumi Kaba punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Avery Sweeting at the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
0.2%
Marquan Greene run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
0.2%
Marquan Greene run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+2
0.2%
Marquan Greene run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+2
0.2%
Wil Lutz punt for 44 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:100% → 1%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+27
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 27 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.1%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+10
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 10 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 11 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 5 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+14
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 14 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 2 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:12
Wil Lutz 42 yd FG GOOD
-15.4
TD · Q3 5:01
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 17 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-12
TD · Q2 3:09
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 4 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com