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ARST

Arkansas State 59 at UL Monroe 21

ULM
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:32 · Chris Qualls punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior−32.8Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:33: Earnest Carrington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +10.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:04: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 50 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +6.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:44: Ben Luckett run for 85 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +11.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:23: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 53 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +8.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:17: Earnest Carrington pass intercepted for a TD Money Hunter return for 29 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 11 of 15ARST made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:00ULM 4th & 15 at ARST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:07ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:32ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 13, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:39ARST 4th & 7 at ULM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 8:10ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 6:17ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 27, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.5%
    average punt
  8. Q1 4:52ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  9. Q1 4:06ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  10. Q1 2:49ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.3%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q1 0:15ARST 4th & 3 at ULM 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 11:16ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 9:17ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  14. Q2 8:27ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  15. Q2 1:39ULM 4th & 18 at ULM 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:28ARST 4th & 1 at ULM 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−3.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 13:04ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  19. Q3 11:09ARST 4th & 6 at ULM 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−0.9
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−0.8
    average punt
  20. Q3 9:24ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  21. Q3 6:20ARST 4th & 6 at ULM 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−5.9
    average punt
  22. Q3 4:44ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 45, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q3 3:13ULM 4th & 16 at ULM 14, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  24. Q4 13:44ARST 4th & 14 at ULM 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.2
    average punt
  25. Q4 11:40ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 19, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  26. Q4 10:16ULM 4th & 2 at ARST 47, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  27. Q4 7:53ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 13, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  28. Q4 6:27ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 42, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  29. Q4 3:13ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 18, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 6:17ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:59ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:16ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:33ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:04ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:44ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:23ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:09ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:17ARST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:40ARST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:16ARST Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
15.8%
DeVontae McNeal run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
15.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to DeVontae McNeal for no gain to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
15.8%
Chris Qualls punt for 30 yds , Brandon Byner returns for no gain to the ArkSt 37 Brandon Byner fumbled, recovered by LaMon Aaron TownsendSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
16.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
16.4%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-5
16.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
16.3%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
16.3%
Chris Qualls punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
16.7%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
16.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+11
16.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
16.7%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
16.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+4
16.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
16.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
18.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 1 yd to the LaMon 6Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+7
18.0%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
17.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
17.8%
Chris Qualls punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
50
-1
18.1%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
18.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+9
18.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for 9 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-5
18.3%
Ferguson, Luke punt 35 yards to the ULM7, downed, PENALTY ASU illegal shift (Hayes, Rocky) 5 yards to the ULM47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
18.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
19.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 12 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
19.2%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
19.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
19.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
18.9%
Chris Qualls punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:3880% → 83%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+65
19.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 65 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.4%
Johnston White run for 1 yd for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 1:2518% → 18%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.1%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
18.2%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
17.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon WatsonSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+14
17.8%
Chris Qualls run for 14 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
18.7%
Earnest Carrington run for 2 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
18.7%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Chris StoneSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
18.3%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+5
18.1%
Chris Qualls punt for 34 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
18.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
17.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon Paschal, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-10
18.2%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
18.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 45 yds, downed at the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
18.9%
Earnest Carrington run for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
19.2%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Rashon Ceaser, broken up by Money HunterSimilar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
18.7%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 5 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
18.9%
Kaylon Watson run for no gain to the LaMon 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · -8 yds · 1:2782% → 80%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
17.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
17.9%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+5
18.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+6
19.0%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
18.3%
JD McKissic run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 34
-5
18.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 39
-16
18.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Michael Johnson for a loss of 16 yards to the ULMONROE 45 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Fredi Knighten) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 37
OWN 45
+6
19.5%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 31
OPP 49
0
19.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 33 yds, downed at the LaMon 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
19.5%
Earnest Carrington pass intercepted Rocky Hayes return for 4 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:4882% → 85%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
18.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
18.6%
Johnston White run for no gain to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+27
15.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 27 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:4316% → 21%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
15.9%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ben Luckett for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Robert Mondie) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
50
+11
16.6%
Ben Luckett run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
16.6%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 19
OPP 48
+8
16.4%
Earnest Carrington run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+1
16.6%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+39
21.2%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 39 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
20.1%
Michael Gordon run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
19.4%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
19.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 8 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-6
19.4%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 45 Warren Wand fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Warren WandSimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
20.3%
Luke Ferguson punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
21.5%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
21.1%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
20.6%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Xavier Woodson-LusterSimilar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+1
20.0%
Chris Qualls punt for 36 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 44 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (Nehemiah Wagner) to the ArkSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
21.1%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
21.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
21.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
22.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:0122% → 33%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
21.5%
Carrington, E pass incomplete to Holley, Ajalen (Hunter, Money), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Hunter, Money) 15 yards to the ASU39, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
22.1%
Ben Luckett run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+2
22.8%
Earnest Carrington run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
22.8%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 6 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+21
22.8%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 21 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.3%
Earnest Carrington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:2972% → 81%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
27.6%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+13
27.3%
Michael Gordon run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
26.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
25.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
50
+50
19.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 50 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
32.9%
Ben Luckett run for 85 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2170% → 80%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.0%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 12 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
29.0%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+8
28.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
19.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 53 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:4422% → 21%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
22.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
22.2%
Earnest Carrington run for 4 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
22.2%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-7
21.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 17 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Earnest CarringtonSimilar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+3
21.0%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 1:2081% → 88%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
19.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
19.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-10
19.5%
Knighten, Fredi pass complete to Gordon, Michael for 6 yards to the ULM47 (Jackson, L;Kissinger, H), PENALTY ASU holding (Clark, Jemar) 10 yards to the ASU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+14
21.0%
Warren Wand run for 14 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+15
19.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Lenzy Pipkins) to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
17.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
17.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
18.4%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+8
18.9%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
17.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to JD McKissicSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
11.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 17 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
15.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
13.7%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
13.7%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-2
14.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
14.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 59 yds , Rashon Ceaser returns for no gain to the LaMon 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
14.0%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-2
14.1%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 8Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 10
OWN 8
-4
13.7%
Earnest Carrington sacked by Darrius Rosser for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 4Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 14
OWN 4
0
13.7%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
11.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-7
11.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Fredi KnightenSimilar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+8
12.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 8 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
12.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 36 yds, downed at the LaMon 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
12.7%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 4 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
12.6%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
12.4%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+1
12.4%
Chris Qualls punt for 38 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 1 yd to the LaMon 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1190% → 91%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
10.4%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
10.4%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
10.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 11 yds to the LaMon 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
10.2%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+1
10.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the LaMon 17Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
10.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
9.5%
JD Houston 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
9.2%
Ferguson, Luke kickoff 10 yards to the ASU45, on-side kick, recovered by ASU Ferguson, Luke on ASU45, PENALTY ASU illegal block (Moragne, Logan) 5 yards to the ASU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 30INT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0310% → 4%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
10.1%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
10.0%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+29
3.6%
Earnest Carrington pass intercepted for a TD Money Hunter return for 29 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 31INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.6%
Earnest Carrington run for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
2.6%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+7
2.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for 7 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
2.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 33PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
3.2%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-4
3.3%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-6
3.2%
Earnest Carrington sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Darrius Rosser for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 14Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
3.2%
Chris Qualls punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 34MISSED FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3298% → 98%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
2.0%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+10
2.0%
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
1.9%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
1.9%
Darion Griswold pass incomplete to Fredi KnightenSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-16
1.9%
Gordon, Michael rush for loss of 1 yard to the ULM20 (Johnson, M;Johnson, Alex), PENALTY ASU face mask (Mondie, Devin) 16 yards to the ULM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+4
1.9%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+48
2.0%
JD Houston 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 35FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
2.2%
Ben Luckett run for 9 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-5
2.3%
DeVontae McNeal run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 35 DeVontae McNeal fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Robert MondieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 36TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:1598% → 100%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
1.6%
Johnston White run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+3
1.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+35
0.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 35 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 37DOWNS
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
0.3%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+2
0.3%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
0.3%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 5
OWN 19
-14
0.3%
Chris Qualls run for a loss of 14 yards to the LaMon 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 38TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:08100% → 100%
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.3%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Houston, Tres, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Williams, J) 3 yards to the ULM2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 39PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
0.2%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
0.2%
Ben Luckett run for 7 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the LaMon 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Brian Williams , return for 8 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+9
0.2%
Ben Luckett run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
0.2%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Chris Qualls punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 40PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
0.2%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+4
0.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
0.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+2
0.3%
Luke Ferguson punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 35 , Rashon Ceaser returns for 2 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 41PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
0.2%
DeVontae McNeal run for 1 yd to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
0.1%
DeVontae McNeal run for 1 yd to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+5
0.1%
Brian Williams pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 5 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
0.2%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 42PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Charleston Girley pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-9
0.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (-9 Yards) to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+9
0.2%
Logan Moragne run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-1
0.2%
Logan Moragne run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 43INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.1%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-8
0.1%
Brian Williams sacked by Caleb Caston and Clifford Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+4
0.1%
Brian Williams pass intercepted Raziel Velgis return for 4 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 44END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:44
Ben Luckett run for 85 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 5:33
Earnest Carrington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q2 2:23
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 53 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com