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UL

Louisiana 23 at Georgia State 21

GAST
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:42 · Wil Lutz punt blocked by blocked by Montrel Carter return for no gain for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior−13.1Home team on offense−1.6Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:55: Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 4 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +4.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:08: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 3 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +10.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:27: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 3 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +21.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:59: Stevie Artigue 21 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +15.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:58: Elijah McGuire run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST down — UL win probability +19.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 7UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:48UL 4th & 5 at GAST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 14, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:06UL 4th & 1 at GAST 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:51UL 4th & 4 at GAST 37, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−1.0
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:47GAST 4th & 4 at UL 8, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−7.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:26UL 4th & 9 at UL 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−2.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UL 4th & 4 at UL 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:30UL 4th & 12 at GAST 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:29GAST 4th & 2 at UL 19, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.2%−2.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−15.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:29UL 4th & 6 at UL 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:30GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 24, up 1
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%−1.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:59UL 4th & 2 at GAST 5, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.8
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−18.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:19GAST 4th & 17 at GAST 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−6.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:47UL 4th & 15 at GAST 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−8.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−23.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:11UL 4th & 6 at GAST 35, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 13.3 ptsPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−7.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−13.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:06GAST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:55UL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:08GAST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:27GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:1264% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
35.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 12 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
35.6%
Brooks Haack run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
50
+6
35.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
35.6%
Torrey Pierce run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kaleb Ringer) to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
35.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
35.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gary Haynes for 2 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
35.6%
Brooks Haack run for no gain to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
36.7%
Stevie Artigue 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0637% → 35%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
36.8%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+8
36.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 8 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 15
-1
36.6%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
35.0%
Wil Lutz punt blocked by blocked by Montrel Carter return for no gain for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:3636% → 39%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
35.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Demarcus KirkSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
35.5%
Demarcus Kirk run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+32
35.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 32 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
36.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-3
36.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+22
35.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 22 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
39.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 8 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1162% → 66%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Nick Byrne for 8 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
37.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
37.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 33 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
37.0%
Brooks Haack run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
37.0%
Torrey Pierce run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
37.3%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
37.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
37.0%
Torrey Pierce run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+2
37.0%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
37.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.0%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal Robinson, broken up by Jerome SmithSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.8%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 4 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5534% → 33%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
33.9%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert (Brown, Savion), PENALTY UL pass interference (Brown, Savion) 7 yards to the GSU23, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
34.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
34.1%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-7
33.7%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Dominique Tovell for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
33.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
33.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+3
33.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
33.4%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gary HaynesSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
33.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+2
33.5%
Jalen Nixon pass intercepted Bobby Baker return for 2 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:4633% → 45%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
32.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-1
33.1%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+14
32.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 14 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
33.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 10 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
34.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+33
34.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 33 yds to the LaLaf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 3 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1760% → 62%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
39.8%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 17 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
38.7%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 11 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
38.4%
Brooks Haack run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
38.3%
Torrey Pierce run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-5
38.4%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+2
38.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
38.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 33 yds, downed at the GeoSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 88 yds · 3:5539% → 41%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+43
38.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 43 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
41.5%
Demarcus Kirk run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-1
42.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+34
41.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 34 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
43.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal procedure (Gabe Mobley) to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+10
43.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 10 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+3
43.5%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 2
OPP 6
-2
42.2%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
41.1%
Wil Lutz 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2160% → 59%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
39.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
39.8%
McGuire, Elijah rush for 21 yards to the UL42, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UL holding (Goodacre, A.) 10 yards to the UL11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+10
40.3%
Torrey Pierce run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
40.7%
Torrey Pierce run for no gain to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
40.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
39.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
38.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
37.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
40.5%
Penny Hart run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+16
40.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
43.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
41.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-6
42.1%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Darzil Washington for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 39
+41
38.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GEORGIAST 35 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
39.0%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 6 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+6
39.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
38.8%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 17 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
37.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
36.8%
Brooks Haack pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
37.2%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Al Riles, broken up by Bobby BakerSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+2
38.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 14 , Donovan Harden returns for 2 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 4:5840% → 66%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
40.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-3
40.0%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+20
38.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 20 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
40.9%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+15
40.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 15 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
43.6%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
43.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+15
42.4%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert, PENALTY UL personal foul (Washington, D.) 15 yards to the UL37, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
44.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 13 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
46.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
45.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+21
43.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 21 yds to the LaLaf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 3 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:5741% → 43%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
59.3%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 5 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kaleb Ringer) to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
55.8%
Brooks Haack run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
56.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+8
54.9%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 8 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
54.3%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
54.4%
Al Riles run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+7
54.9%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 7 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
52.9%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
53.3%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Al Riles, broken up by Tarris BatisteSimilar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
57.0%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal Robinson, broken up by Bruce DukesSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+49
56.6%
Stevie Artigue 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:0157% → 62%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
56.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Glenn Smith, broken up by Travis CrawfordSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
56.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 6 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+10
55.4%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert (Brown, Savion), PENALTY UL holding (Brown, Savion) 10 yards to the GSU35, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
57.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
50
+8
60.9%
Glenn Smith run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+15
62.1%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Hart, Penny (DeGrange, Z.), PENALTY UL pass interference (DeGrange, Z.) 15 yards to the UL27, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
63.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
63.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
64.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+36
62.2%
Wil Lutz 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
57.4%
Haack, Brooks pass incomplete to Scott, Devin (Dukes, Bruce), PENALTY GSU pass interference (Dukes, Bruce) 15 yards to the UL35, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
56.3%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 7 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
53.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
53.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
55.5%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
58.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 58%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
60.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
60.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+6
58.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 6 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 5
OWN 0
0
57.8%
Lutz, Wil punt 30 yards to the UL46, McGuire, Elijah return to the GSU41 (Bryant, Niemus), PENALTY GSU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY UL personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 5
OWN 24
-1
57.8%
Wil Lutz pass complete to Tevin Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 23 GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:5149% → 63%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
50.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+7
50.9%
Torrey Pierce run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
50.9%
Torrey Pierce run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
50.9%
Torrey Pierce run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+2
53.0%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+21
37.1%
Stevie Artigue 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:4047% → 40%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
47.0%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+7
47.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 7 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
47.9%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert (McCollum, Troy), PENALTY UL pass interference (McCollum, Troy) 9 yards to the GSU39, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
49.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
45.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny Hart, broken up by Taboris LeeSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-7
43.6%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Dominique Tovell for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 17
OWN 32
+42
40.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 49 yds , Gary Haynes returns for 42 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2971% → 73%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
29.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+17
29.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 17 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
27.1%
Torrey Pierce run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+3
27.8%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Nick Byrne for 3 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-6
30.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Elijah McGuire for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
27.3%
Stevie Artigue 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0034% → 36%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Savion BrownSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
33.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny Hart GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
31.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 16 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
38.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Troy McCollumSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
36.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Savion Brown return for no gain to the LaLaf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4784% → 93%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
16.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
14.9%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+6
15.6%
Torrey Pierce run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+1
12.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
6.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
14.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:27
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 3 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+21.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:58
Elijah McGuire run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST down
-19.9
FG · Q4 6:59
Stevie Artigue 21 yd FG GOOD
-15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com