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ARST

Arkansas State 40 at App State 27

APP
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2015 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:01 · Bentlee Critcher pass complete to Malachi Jones for 36 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+25.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:44: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for 24 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +3.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:25: Johnston White run for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +14.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:17: Michael Gordon run for 73 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +15.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:53: JD Houston 32 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +9.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:32: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — APP win probability +6.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:38ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43APP 4th & 6 at APP 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:46ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:01APP 4th & 6 at APP 29, tied
    Close callWent for it · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:17ARST 4th & 11 at APP 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:24ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:25APP 4th & 5 at APP 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:50ARST 4th & 3 at APP 8, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:49APP 4th & 2 at APP 21, up 4
    Close callPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:46ARST 4th & 4 at APP 48, down 4
    Close callPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:47APP 4th & 7 at ARST 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:39APP 4th & 2 at APP 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:53ARST 4th & 4 at APP 15, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−12.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:56APP 4th & 6 at APP 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:50ARST 4th & 5 at APP 9, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−11.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:48APP 4th & 9 at APP 22, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:26ARST 4th & 6 at APP 6, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:45APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:33ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:04APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:44APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:25ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:17ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:32APP Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.2%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:0079% → 79%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+45
79.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 45 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
79.0%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
78.9%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+8
78.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 8 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
79.3%
Malachi Jones 12 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5521% → 21%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.1%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
79.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
79.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3879% → 79%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
79.1%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
79.1%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
79.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+23
78.9%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APPALCHAN 38 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Stephen Burns) to the AppSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5421% → 21%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-18
78.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Devan Stringer for a loss of 18 yards to the APPALCHAN 35 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Fredi Knighten) to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 28
OWN 35
0
79.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 28
OWN 35
+14
79.2%
Warren Wand run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
79.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0579% → 79%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
79.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-2
79.1%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 8 Marcus Cox fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Khari LainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
76.6%
Tres Houston 8 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (JD Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1177% → 80%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.3%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
77.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Bobo BeathardSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
76.9%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+36
76.4%
Bentlee Critcher pass complete to Malachi Jones for 36 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
77.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
77.6%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+29
79.5%
Barrett Burns 29 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 4
OPP 0
-5
79.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:2621% → 21%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
78.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+15
78.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 15 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
78.3%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+7
78.2%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
77.9%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
77.9%
Johnston White run for no gain to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
78.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
79.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 33 yds, downed at the AppSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:4079% → 76%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+29
79.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 29 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
79.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 4 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
79.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+19
75.8%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Xavier Woodson-Luster for a loss of 15 yards Taylor Lamb fumbled, forced by Xavier Woodson-Luster, recovered by ArkSt Chris Stone , return for 19 yds, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:3376% → 80%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
76.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 20 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
76.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 10 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
76.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
76.7%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+18
75.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 18 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
77.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Bobo BeathardSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
77.0%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
80.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for 24 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0621% → 20%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.1%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
79.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
79.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
79.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3580% → 79%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
79.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 13 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
80.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 4 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-9
80.4%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 44 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+2
79.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+8
79.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 8 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
79.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:2921% → 23%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
79.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
79.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-3
78.2%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+19
79.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 19 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
78.1%
Johnston White run for 14 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
77.3%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
77.1%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+9
78.0%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
77.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 9 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 1
OPP 6
-2
77.0%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 8Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
78.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
76.9%
JD Houston 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 4 yds · 2:4176% → 75%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-6
76.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 11 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AppSt Taylor LambSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 16
OWN 11
+5
75.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 5 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+11
76.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 11 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-14
77.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Parker Collins) to the AppSt 13Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
76.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+3
76.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
76.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 2
OWN 21
+18
74.6%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 51 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 18 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4824% → 23%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
76.1%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+4
76.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
75.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
76.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:2276% → 78%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
75.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 11 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
76.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-3
78.1%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Rocky Hayes return for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
77.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3026% → 42%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
73.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 13 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
72.6%
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
71.1%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+26
71.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 26 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
57.7%
Johnston White run for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:2563% → 62%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
62.6%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+24
62.6%
Marcus Cox run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
65.3%
Taylor Lamb run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-3
65.1%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
64.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
61.9%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:1940% → 56%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
60.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Leapheart for 7 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+73
44.2%
Michael Gordon run for 73 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3044% → 42%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.4%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
42.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 4 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-2
41.5%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:2257% → 77%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
43.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+6
43.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+3
42.0%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
40.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
39.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
38.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
38.6%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+15
37.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 15 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
35.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 10 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
35.0%
Michael Gordon run for 12 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
33.0%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
32.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+8
32.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 8 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
23.5%
JD Houston 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4631% → 27%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
30.5%
Marcus Cox run for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
31.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Shaq Counts) to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+10
29.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 10 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-1
30.5%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 40 Marcus Cox fumbled, forced by Waylon Roberson, recovered by AppSt Shaq CountsSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
27.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
27.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:5678% → 89%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+51
21.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 51 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
19.0%
Michael Gordon run for 13 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
17.9%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+6
16.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+5
17.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
16.8%
Johnston White run for no gain to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
16.0%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+3
13.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
11.4%
JD Houston 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3716% → 14%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
15.7%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
14.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
14.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Marcus CoxSimilar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+13
13.8%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 53 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 13 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 5:0191% → 98%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
9.1%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+33
8.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 33 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
7.6%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+12
7.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 12 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+14
5.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 14 yds to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
5.0%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 6Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
4.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
4.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the AppSt 6Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
2.1%
JD Houston 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 2:484% → 9%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
4.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Griffin Riggs) to the AppSt 16Similar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+21
4.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 21 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
3.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 7 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-11
2.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 4 yds to the AppSt 48 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+17
2.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
50
+9
2.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 9 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+14
2.8%
Marcus Cox run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
9.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:2097% → 99%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
2.7%
Michael Gordon run for 12 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
2.5%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+2
2.0%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+1
2.0%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
1.4%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+6
1.4%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the AppSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:17
Michael Gordon run for 73 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q3 13:25
Johnston White run for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
-14.1
FG · Q3 3:53
JD Houston 32 yd FG GOOD
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com