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UL

Louisiana 27 at Arkansas State 37

ARST
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2015 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:10 · Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 5 yds to the ArkSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Home team on offense+18.0Pregame prior+1.4Score differential+6.4Garbage-time factor+5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:24: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 2 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +6.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:29: Jalen Nixon pass intercepted for a TD Cody Brown return for 30 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +5.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:25: Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +7.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:05: Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 17 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +9.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:02: Elijah McGuire 20 Yd pass from Jalen Nixon (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UL win probability +10.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 10:21UL 4th & 11 at ARST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:00UL 4th & 5 at UL 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:31ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15UL 4th & 17 at UL 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09UL 4th & 9 at UL 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:28UL 4th & 10 at UL 9, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 46, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:49ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 39, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:12UL 4th & 10 at UL 22, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:16ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:52UL 4th & 8 at UL 21, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:19ARST 4th & 6 at UL 6, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:35ARST 4th & 13 at UL 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:43UL 4th & 4 at ARST 37, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:53ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:10UL 4th & 8 at ARST 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:08ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 35, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:44UL 4th & 10 at UL 28, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:18UL 4th & 10 at ARST 44, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:13ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:15ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:24ARST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:29ARST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:16UL Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:55ARST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:25UL Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:05UL Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:02UL Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:2330% → 31%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.2%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+41
70.1%
Jalen Nixon run for 41 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
69.9%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
69.7%
Jalen Nixon run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
69.5%
Jalen Nixon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
69.3%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
69.1%
Torrey Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
69.1%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
69.4%
Stevie Artigue 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:0170% → 72%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
69.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
69.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 11 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
69.5%
Michael Gordon run for 26 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
69.9%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
69.9%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
69.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.6%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Drew White PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0029% → 29%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
70.7%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Jamal Robinson, broken up by Cody BrownSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
70.8%
Jalen Nixon run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
71.0%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
71.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 64 yds, downed at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2371% → 70%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to JD McKissicSimilar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-7
70.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Dominick Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
70.3%
Luke Ferguson punt for 66 yds, downed at the LaLaf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0029% → 28%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
70.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+9
70.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-7
70.5%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 17
OWN 21
0
71.0%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 17
OWN 21
0
71.3%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 17
OWN 21
0
71.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:5372% → 77%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
72.2%
JD McKissic run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+16
72.3%
Warren Wand run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
72.3%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
72.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+10
72.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
72.4%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
77.4%
Johnston White run for 21 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0125% → 24%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
75.9%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
76.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 50 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 12 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:4078% → 85%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+52
78.2%
Warren Wand run for 39 yds to the ARKST 25 for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (Trey Granier) to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
78.1%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
78.2%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+6
78.1%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
78.6%
Johnston White run for no gain to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 2 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4115% → 14%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
85.5%
Jalen Nixon run for no gain to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
86.0%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gary HaynesSimilar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
86.1%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
86.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4186% → 86%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
85.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
86.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
86.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
86.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+30
91.9%
Jalen Nixon pass intercepted for a TD Cody Brown return for 30 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
86.4%
Jalen Nixon run for 75 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0987% → 87%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
86.9%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-1
87.4%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
87.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3112% → 11%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
87.6%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+9
88.0%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 9 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
88.5%
Jalen Nixon run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
88.6%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
88.8%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
88.9%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al Riles, broken up by Caleb CastonSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
88.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4688% → 87%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
87.8%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
87.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
87.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0911% → 10%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
88.7%
Jalen Nixon run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
89.1%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
89.4%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
89.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 62 yds, downed at the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:4393% → 96%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
93.4%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
93.5%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Wand, Warren, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference (Posey, TJ) 4 yards to the ARKST26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
93.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+23
92.9%
Warren Wand run for 23 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
96.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 46 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:221% → 10%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.6%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 13 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+21
98.7%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 21 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.7%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
98.7%
Jalen Nixon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+19
98.3%
Jalen Nixon run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
96.7%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 6 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+2
96.5%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
97.4%
Jalen Nixon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:2394% → 95%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
94.4%
JD McKissic run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+2
94.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 2 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+9
94.5%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
95.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 16 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
95.1%
Johnston White run for 20 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
95.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+24
94.7%
Tres Houston pass complete to Warren Wand for 24 yds to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.9%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.0%
Johnston White run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.1%
Johnston White run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
94.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
94.9%
Drew White 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21INT
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:336% → 6%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.5%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
94.8%
Jalen Nixon run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
94.7%
Jalen Nixon run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
94.9%
Jalen Nixon run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+35
94.9%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 35 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
94.2%
Jalen Nixon pass intercepted, touchback. Money Hunter return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:5896% → 98%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.2%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
95.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 12 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
96.1%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+22
96.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 22 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
96.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
96.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+19
96.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 19 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
96.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-3
96.5%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 13
OPP 25
0
96.7%
Knighten, Fredi pass complete to Griswold, Darion for 13 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE12, PENALTY ARKST illegal touching (Griswold, Darion) 0 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+42
98.2%
JD Houston 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:153% → 12%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+42
97.3%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 42 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
97.1%
Jalen Nixon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-5
97.3%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+17
98.0%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 17 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
88.5%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 17 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2494% → 95%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
93.9%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
94.3%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
94.8%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
95.1%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Savion Brown return for 16 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:199% → 20%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
91.3%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 16 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.0%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
91.1%
Jalen Nixon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+3
91.4%
Jalen Nixon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+14
92.1%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 14 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
90.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
79.8%
Elijah McGuire 20 Yd pass from Jalen Nixon (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4787% → 91%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
87.3%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
88.2%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
90.9%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
91.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
90.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:3610% → 10%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
89.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
88.6%
Nixon, Jalen pass incomplete to Scott, Devin, PENALTY ARKST pass interference (Taylor, Blaise) 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE.Similar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
87.9%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 14 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
87.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
87.8%
Montrel Carter run for no gain to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
88.3%
Jalen Nixon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.9%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
88.2%
Jalen Nixon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
89.2%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+5
90.3%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 5 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5293% → 95%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
93.4%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+6
93.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+2
94.7%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
95.3%
Luke Ferguson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:444% → 3%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.3%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Elijah McGuire, broken up by Khari LainSimilar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
96.5%
Jalen Nixon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
96.7%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gabe Fuselier, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+28
97.2%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 28 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
96.1%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
96.2%
Jalen Nixon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
96.3%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
96.6%
Jalen Nixon pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 2:0698% → 98%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
98.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-5
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-3
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:02
Elijah McGuire 20 Yd pass from Jalen Nixon (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-10.9
TD · Q3 0:05
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 17 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q2 0:25
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com