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ARST

Arkansas State 49 at South Alabama 31

USA
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2015 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:20 · Brandon McKee punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 29 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (-14 Yards) to the SAlab 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior−15.8Home team on offense−3.7Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:09: Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 24 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +10.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:08: Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 76 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +12.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:12: Gerald Everett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +16.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:33: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 38 yds for a TD, (Fredi Knighten pass to JD McKissic for Two-Point Conversion) — ARST win probability +23.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 10:08: Johnston White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew White KICK) — ARST win probability +30.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 13:21ARST 4th & 9 at USA 48, tied
    Close callWent for it · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:46ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:58USA 4th & 3 at USA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:43USA 4th & 21 at USA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16ARST 4th & 4 at USA 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20USA 4th & 10 at USA 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:45ARST 4th & 1 at USA 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−1.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:00USA 4th & 1 at USA 28, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:50ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:44ARST 4th & 10 at USA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:53ARST 4th & 7 at USA 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:01ARST 4th & 2 at USA 6, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%−2.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−13.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:21USA 4th & 19 at USA 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−3.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:04USA 4th & 3 at ARST 19, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%−1.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−10.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:25ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:51USA 4th & 16 at USA 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:16USA 4th & 2 at USA 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:52USA 4th & 13 at USA 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:29ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:29USA 4th & 14 at USA 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:05USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:42ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:27ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:09USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:08USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:12USA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:33ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:08ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:16ARST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3971% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
28.6%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
28.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-6
29.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Dami Ayoola for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
29.4%
Rocky Hayes run for no gain to the SAlab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:1630% → 35%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
29.5%
Cody Clements sacked by Jake Swalley and Chris Stone for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+10
29.8%
Cody Clements run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
30.2%
Cody Clements run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
30.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+9
30.8%
Claude Garrett run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
31.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
31.7%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+15
31.8%
Clements, Cody pass incomplete to Shinn, Marvin, PENALTY ARKST pass interference (Hayes, Rocky) 15 yards to the ARKST13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUTHALA.Similar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
32.1%
Johnson, Xavier rush for 3 yards to the ARKST10, PENALTY ARKST offside 5 yards to the ARKST8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 5
OPP 8
-2
32.2%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
35.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 10 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1966% → 64%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
34.2%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
34.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
35.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
35.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 45 yds, downed at the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4835% → 36%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
35.4%
Cody Clements run for 6 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-3
36.1%
Terrance Timmons run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+4
36.1%
Cody Clements run for 4 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+5
36.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 38 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:1664% → 67%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
36.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 14 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+23
36.3%
JD McKissic run for 23 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
35.7%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+12
35.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 12 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
36.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
36.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the SAlab 9Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
32.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 9 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:5934% → 34%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
34.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (Cody Clements) to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-6
34.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Xavier Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
33.9%
Brandon McKee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:1667% → 72%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
33.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 10 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
33.0%
Michael Gordon run for 8 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+23
32.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 23 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
28.4%
Johnston White run for 13 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:2730% → 30%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Chris Lewis for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
30.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 18 yds Braedon Bowman fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Charleston GirleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4471% → 71%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
28.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-5
28.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Jemar Clark) to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
29.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+9
29.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 9 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
29.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Josh Magee at the SAlab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5630% → 29%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
30.1%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the SAlab 12Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
30.1%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
29.6%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+3
29.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 29 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (-14 Yards) to the SAlab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3572% → 71%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
28.4%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 17Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+7
28.5%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+4
28.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for 4 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
29.4%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:4530% → 31%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
30.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-3 Yards) to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+16
30.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 16 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
30.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 5 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
30.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to D.J. VinsonSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+4
29.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 4 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
30.6%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:5570% → 69%
Q2 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
30.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
31.0%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Tre Alford for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
31.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:4134% → 44%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
33.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 3 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
44.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 24 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:2564% → 61%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
36.2%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-1
35.7%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 45 Fredi Knighten fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Warren WandSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+16
36.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 16 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
36.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
37.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
38.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
4 plays · 93 yds · 1:3642% → 55%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
42.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Chris Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+9
42.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 9 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+9
42.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 9 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
54.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 76 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1545% → 44%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
55.3%
Warren Wand run for 29 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
51.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-17
51.6%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 39 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tres Houston) to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 18
OWN 46
+11
56.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 11 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
56.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:5356% → 56%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
55.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
56.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 18 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the SAlab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19INT
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:2256% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+42
55.7%
Cody Clements pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 42 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
59.1%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+60
60.0%
Cody Clements pass intercepted Xavier Woodson return for 60 yds to the SAlab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3750% → 53%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
50.5%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
51.0%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
53.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to JD McKissicSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
47.2%
JD Houston 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:4050% → 52%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.0%
Terrance Timmons run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
50.4%
Cody Clements sacked by Jake Swalley for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
52.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to D.J. VinsonSimilar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-5
51.9%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 16Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+2
52.0%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 44 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:4550% → 50%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
50.5%
Tres Houston pass incomplete to Fredi KnightenSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
51.5%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
50.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Jalen Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 26 Fredi Knighten fumbled, forced by Jalen Thompson, recovered by SAlab Akeem Lewis , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23FG
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4760% → 66%
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
60.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+7
58.7%
Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
65.9%
Aleem Sunanon 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3941% → 36%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
58.8%
Johnston White run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-5
60.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Joseph Bacchus) to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+7
61.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
61.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
63.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Magee at the SAlab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3467% → 65%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
67.1%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
67.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-8
66.2%
Cody Clements sacked by Jamaris Hart for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 16
OWN 10
+10
65.2%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 40 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 10 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 4:1640% → 43%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
60.1%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
57.8%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+13
60.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 13 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
58.5%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+8
58.8%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
59.0%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the SAlab 1Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.1%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the SAlab 16 Fredi Knighten fumbled, forced by Devon Earl, recovered by ArkSt Colton JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
57.3%
JD Houston 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2363% → 85%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
62.8%
Cody Clements sacked by Justin Clifton for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+40
62.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 40 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
67.2%
Cody Clements run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
68.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 3
OPP 14
-1
69.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+12
67.7%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 12 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.5%
Gerald Everett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:3920% → 45%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
80.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+18
78.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for 3 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Akeem Lewis) to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
55.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 38 yds for a TD, (Fredi Knighten pass to JD McKissic for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 29INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.4%
Cody Clements pass intercepted Cody Brown return for no gain to the SAlab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1245% → 77%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
55.2%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+2
53.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
54.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 8 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+24
53.7%
Johnston White run for 24 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.0%
Johnston White run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.5%
Johnston White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 31FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:2435% → 12%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-12
35.2%
Cody Clements sacked by Chris Stone for a loss of 12 yards to the SAlab 18Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
11.6%
Cody Clements sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 9 yards Cody Clements fumbled, forced by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones, recovered by ArkSt Chris Stone , return for 0 yards , return for a TD. (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 32INT TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2813% → 4%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.8%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
12.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
12.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+37
4.0%
Cody Clements pass intercepted by Justin Clifton return for 37 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 33PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:094% → 3%
Q4 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
3.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for no gain to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
3.1%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
3.1%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 22Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
3.1%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 52 yds, downed at the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 34PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:2398% → 99%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
2.4%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
2.0%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-5
2.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Jemar Clark) to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+1
2.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
1.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Josh Magee at the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 35PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:552% → 2%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
2.1%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to D.J. VinsonSimilar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
2.1%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Braedon BowmanSimilar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+1
2.1%
Cody Clements run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 9
OWN 27
-5
2.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 22Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 14
OWN 22
+18
2.0%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 43 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 18 yds to the ArkSt 40 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 36END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 2:2999% → 99%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
1.3%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
1.0%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-1
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:08
Johnston White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew White KICK)
-30.5
TD · Q4 12:33
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 38 yds for a TD, (Fredi Knighten pass to JD McKissic for Two-Point Conversion)
-23.1
TD · Q4 13:12
Gerald Everett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)
+16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com