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LIB

Liberty 41 at Georgia State 33

GAST
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:43 · Wil Lutz punt for 52 yds, downed at the Liber 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior+5.8Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:18: Desmond Rice run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK) — LIB win probability +12.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:27: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 58 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +15.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:03: Desmond Rice run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK) GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — LIB win probability +17.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:41: Todd Macon run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK) — LIB win probability +14.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:51: Nick Arbuckle run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — GAST win probability +21.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 6:54LIB 4th & 1 at GAST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−1.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:23LIB 4th & 1 at GAST 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00LIB 4th & 1 at GAST 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−4.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:43GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:03LIB 4th & 1 at GAST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−4.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−16.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:03GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:52LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:46GAST 4th & 6 at LIB 32, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:08GAST 4th & 7 at LIB 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:19LIB 4th & 11 at GAST 11, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:27LIB 4th & 6 at GAST 39, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%−1.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:35GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:54LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:23GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:43LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:18LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:27GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:03LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:41LIB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:51GAST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
58.9%
Josh Woodrum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
58.9%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+18
58.9%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 18 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
58.9%
Stephon Masha run for 19 yds Stephon Masha fumbled, forced by Tarris Batiste, recovered by GeoSt Kaleb RingerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4059% → 60%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
59.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
59.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+76
59.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 76 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4140% → 42%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
59.8%
Darrin Peterson run for 14 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
59.7%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
59.6%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Damian King for 5 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+36
59.6%
Josh Woodrum run for 36 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
59.4%
Desmond Rice run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
59.5%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Desmond RiceSimilar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+12
60.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Zac Parker for 12 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
60.0%
Desmond Rice run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
60.0%
Josh Woodrum run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.8%
Desmond Rice run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.2%
Desmond Rice run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3159% → 63%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
59.1%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
59.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
58.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+61
62.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 61 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5TD
21 plays · 78 yds · 9:4038% → 47%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
62.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 4 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
62.3%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 7 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
62.1%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Dante ShellsSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+16
62.3%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Damian King for 16 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
61.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Zac Parker for 8 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+1
61.1%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 1 yd to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
61.2%
Thomas Kennedy run for no gain to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
61.8%
Josh Woodrum run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
61.2%
WOODRUM, J. pass incomplete to PETERSON, D., PENALTY LIBERTY holding (HOLDER, L.) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 20
50
+3
61.9%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 47
-5
63.3%
ABNAR, D.J. rush for 17 yards to the GSU30 (Baker, Bobby), PENALTY LIBERTY holding 5 yards to the LIBERTY48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 48
+9
63.7%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 9 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+20
63.6%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Zac Parker for 20 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
61.4%
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+11
61.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 11 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
61.4%
D.J. Abnar run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+9
61.7%
D.J. Abnar run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
62.2%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 2 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
62.8%
Todd Macon run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.5%
Todd Macon run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
59.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
58.6%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert (JACKSON, Ca.), PENALTY LIBERTY roughing passer (DESSOURCES, E.) 15 yards to the GSU46, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
60.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
59.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
58.2%
Wil Lutz punt for 52 yds, downed at the Liber 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
14 plays · 98 yds · 6:4344% → 62%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
56.3%
WOODRUM, J. pass incomplete to SHELLS, D., PENALTY GSU pass interference (Sullivan, C.) 15 yards to the LIBERTY17, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
55.9%
Damian King run for 3 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
56.1%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Zac Parker for 6 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
55.7%
Desmond Rice run for 3 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
55.5%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 8 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+23
54.4%
Desmond Rice run for 23 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
53.3%
Desmond Rice run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+24
52.2%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 24 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
52.2%
Josh Woodrum run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
52.2%
Desmond Rice run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
51.1%
WOODRUM, J. pass incomplete to PETERSON, D. (Sullivan, C.), PENALTY GSU pass interference (Sullivan, C.) 1 yards to the GSU2, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.5%
Desmond Rice run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.5%
Desmond Rice run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8END OF HALF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
44.4%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Chima Uzowihe for a loss of 11 yards to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+5
44.1%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:3344% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
43.9%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
44.2%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+4
45.6%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
61.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 58 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:2445% → 66%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
55.1%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Damian King for 17 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
52.9%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 2
50
+1
51.5%
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
52.2%
Todd Macon run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
51.8%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 6 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+20
51.5%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 20 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
50.6%
D.J. Abnar run for no gain to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
51.1%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+11
51.9%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Damian King for 11 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
50.6%
Josh Woodrum run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
51.0%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 8 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.9%
Josh Woodrum run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.4%
Desmond Rice run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK) GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.8%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
39.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
38.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Jeremy PetersSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
37.8%
Wil Lutz punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
33.2%
Desmond Rice run for 5 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
32.3%
Desmond Rice run for 2 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
32.7%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Darrin Peterson LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
34.1%
Trey Turner punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:2837% → 44%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
36.6%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Erwin Dessources for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+15
36.4%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Myers, Kam, PENALTY LIBERTY face mask (JAMES, A.) 15 yards to the GSU28, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+36
37.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 36 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
41.6%
Arbuckle, Nick pass complete to Neal, Kyler for 16 yards to the LIBERTY20 (JALLOH, A.), PENALTY GSU ineligible downfield on pass (Evans, Taylor) 5 yards to the LIBERTY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 15
OPP 41
0
39.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny Hart, broken up by Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 15
OPP 41
-10
39.2%
Arbuckle, Nick pass complete to Ruiz, Joel for no gain to the LIBERTY41 (WOODRUM, J.), PENALTY GSU holding 10 yards to the GSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 25
OWN 49
0
38.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny Hart GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 25
OWN 49
+19
36.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 19 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+49
43.6%
Wil Lutz 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0561% → 81%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.9%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Darrin PetersonSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+67
39.1%
D.J. Abnar run for 67 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
33.5%
Todd Macon run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.1%
Todd Macon run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3323% → 27%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
22.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 57 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
28.5%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the Liber 15Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
28.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for no gain to the Liber 15Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
26.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by Alpha JallohSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
26.8%
Wil Lutz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FG
18 plays · 64 yds · 7:4977% → 93%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.7%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Zac Parker for no gain to the Liber 25Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.3%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Thomas KennedySimilar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
23.7%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Darrin PetersonSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
24.9%
TURNER, T. punt 38 yards to the GSU37, Harden, Donovan return to the GSU41 (TEAM), PENALTY GSU roughing the kicker 15 yards to the LIBERTY40, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
20.3%
Desmond Rice run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
19.3%
Desmond Rice run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
19.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+13
16.8%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 13 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
15.8%
Desmond Rice run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
15.8%
Desmond Rice run for no gain to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+8
16.4%
Desmond Rice run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
15.8%
Desmond Rice run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
15.8%
Desmond Rice run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
16.4%
Darrin Peterson run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
7.1%
John Lunsford 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:2810% → 38%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+22
10.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 22 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
12.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Kyler NealSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
11.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 10 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
13.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 15 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
16.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 9 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+5
16.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 5 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
16.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 9 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
37.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18FG
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:2487% → 95%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
13.4%
Desmond Rice run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-1
11.7%
Desmond Rice run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+3
11.9%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Desmond Rice for 3 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+56
5.4%
John Lunsford 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19INT
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.8%
Nick Arbuckle run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-16
5.6%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Juwan Wells for a loss of 16 yards to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 26
OWN 9
0
5.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Chris Turner return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
50
-1
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-2
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:51
Nick Arbuckle run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+21.1
TD · Q3 6:03
Desmond Rice run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK) GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-17.5
TD · Q3 13:27
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 58 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com