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IDHO

Idaho 35 at Arkansas State 49

ARST
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreIDHO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:24 · Jake Luton pass intercepted Rocky Hayes return for no gain to the ArkSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+36.2Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: James Tabary pass intercepted for a TD Chris Edwards return for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +3.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:44: Michael Gordon run for 15 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK) — ARST win probability +4.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:44: Michael Gordon run for 10 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:54: Jake Luton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +6.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:25: Johnston White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK) — ARST win probability +5.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4IDHO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 8:46IDHO 4th & 14 at IDHO 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:46ARST 4th & 22 at ARST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:24IDHO 4th & 17 at ARST 36, tied
    Close callWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:21IDHO 4th & 9 at IDHO 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:09IDHO 4th & 4 at IDHO 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:55IDHO 4th & 14 at IDHO 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:05ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 39, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:08IDHO 4th & 15 at IDHO 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:49ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7IDHO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:02IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:46ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:15ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:15ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:44ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:44ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:54IDHO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:25ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:54ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:11IDHO Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:37IDHO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IDHODrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:587% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Dezmon Epps for 4 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
92.8%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the Idaho 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
92.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jake Manley for 8 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
92.8%
Aaron Duckworth run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.8%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
92.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Buck Cowan for 8 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+8
92.8%
Jake Luton run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
92.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Buck Cowan for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+20
92.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Dezmon Epps for 20 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
92.8%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.2%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1591% → 91%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.3%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
91.3%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
91.4%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
91.4%
James Tabary pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
50
0
91.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
50
+50
91.3%
Warren Wand run for 50 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for no gain to the Idaho 25Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Deon Watson for 2 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
91.1%
Jake Luton run for 14 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.9%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
91.0%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Idaho 36Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+1
91.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the Idaho 37Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
91.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Buck CowanSimilar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+12
91.2%
Austin Rehkow punt for 46 yds , Chris Murray returns for 12 yds to the ArkSt 49 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
90.2%
James Tabary pass complete to Tres Houston for 12 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
90.2%
James Tabary run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 27 James Tabary fumbled, recovered by ArkSt James TabarySimilar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
90.1%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-8
90.0%
James Tabary run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 22
OWN 19
0
89.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 61 yds, downed at the Idaho 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5INT
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:4111% → 11%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
89.5%
Aaron Duckworth run for 31 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Dezmon Epps, broken up by Chris HumesSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-4
89.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for a loss of 4 yards to the Idaho 47Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+24
89.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Callen Hightower for 24 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
88.9%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
89.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Callen Hightower for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
89.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Buck CowanSimilar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 12
OPP 31
-5
88.6%
IDAHO Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 17
OPP 36
0
88.7%
Jake Luton pass intercepted Rocky Hayes return for no gain to the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6INT TD
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2489% → 85%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
89.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+2
89.0%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+15
88.9%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 15 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
89.1%
James Tabary sacked by Quinton Bradley for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+20
85.4%
James Tabary pass intercepted for a TD Chris Edwards return for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3986% → 89%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.5%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 11 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
85.7%
Tabary, James pass complete to Mack, Blake for 5 yards to the ASU41 (Siavii, Russell), PENALTY IDAHO offside (Ayers, Kaylyn) 5 yards to the ASU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+59
88.9%
Michael Gordon run for 59 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4613% → 12%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.0%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jake ManleySimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
87.1%
Aaron Duckworth run for no gain to the Idaho 46Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+1
87.2%
Aaron Duckworth run for 1 yd to the Idaho 47Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
87.7%
Austin Rehkow punt for 43 yds , Chris Murray returns for no gain to the ArkSt 11 Chris Murray fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 2:3488% → 91%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
87.9%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 7 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+3
88.1%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
87.6%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+55
88.0%
Michael Gordon run for 55 yds to the Idaho 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
88.8%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+11
88.8%
Johnston White run for 11 yds to the Idaho 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
88.8%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the Idaho 2Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.7%
Johnston White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
90.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Dezmon Epps for no gain to the Idaho 24Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
90.1%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Dezmon Epps) to the Idaho 19Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+2
90.2%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the Idaho 21Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+9
90.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Rueben Mwehla for 9 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 4
OWN 30
-2
90.4%
Austin Rehkow punt for 59 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
21 plays · 91 yds · 6:0890% → 94%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
89.8%
James Tabary run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+3
89.8%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+12
89.6%
James Tabary pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
90.0%
James Tabary pass incomplete ARKANSAS ST Penalty, intentional grounding (James Tabary) to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+10
89.8%
James Tabary pass complete to Blake Mack for 10 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+8
89.8%
James Tabary pass complete to Booker Mays for 8 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.5%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
90.2%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
89.7%
James Tabary pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 6 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
90.1%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
89.9%
James Tabary pass incomplete, broken up by Quinton BradleySimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+12
89.4%
James Tabary pass complete to Tres Houston for 12 yds to the Idaho 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
90.2%
Tyler Trosin run for 4 yds to the Idaho 33Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
90.3%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+2
90.1%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
90.3%
James Tabary pass incomplete to JD McKissicSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
90.3%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the Idaho 21Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+6
90.1%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the Idaho 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
94.3%
Michael Gordon run for 15 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
93.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 17 yds to the Idaho 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
91.2%
Luton, Jake pass complete to Mwehla, Rueben for 36 yards to the ASU33, out-of-bounds (Humes, Chris), PENALTY IDAHO personal foul off-setting, PENALTY ASU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
92.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for no gain to the Idaho 31Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
92.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Dezmon Epps, broken up by Jamaris HartSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+15
93.1%
Luton, Jake pass incomplete to Epps, Dezmon (Taylor, Blaise), PENALTY ASU personal foul (Odom, Chris) 15 yards to the IDAHO46, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-17
92.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 44 IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Idaho 29Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 28
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Dezmon Epps, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 28
OWN 29
+8
93.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Callen Hightower for 8 yds to the Idaho 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
92.8%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-5
93.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Daniel Keith) to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
92.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Colton Jackson) to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+1
92.7%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+7
92.4%
James Tabary pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
92.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 33 yds, downed at the Idaho 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
92.1%
Aaron Duckworth run for no gain to the Idaho 28Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-4
92.5%
Jake Luton sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Quanterio Heath for a loss of 4 yards to the Idaho 24Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Elijhaa PennySimilar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+21
92.8%
Austin Rehkow punt for 65 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 21 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:2393% → 98%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
92.9%
James Tabary pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
50
+7
93.3%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the Idaho 43Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
93.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the Idaho 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
93.3%
James Tabary pass complete to Darion Griswold for 23 yds to the Idaho 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
93.3%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the Idaho 10Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
97.9%
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 16TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:463% → 10%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+68
97.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 68 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for no gain to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.5%
Jake Luton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:2993% → 99%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.3%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
93.4%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
93.4%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
93.7%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
93.7%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-3
93.7%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 49 Michael Gordon fumbled, forced by Armond Hawkins, recovered by ArkSt Warren WandSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+15
93.4%
Tabary, James pass incomplete to Houston, Tres, PENALTY IDAHO pass interference (Hightower, C) 15 yards to the IDAHO34, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.7%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the Idaho 32Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-5
93.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Steven Stevens) to the Idaho 37Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+23
93.6%
James Tabary pass complete to Booker Mays for 8 yds to the Idaho 29 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Marc Millan) to the Idaho 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
93.7%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the Idaho 11Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+7
93.7%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the Idaho 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
93.7%
IDAHO Penalty, (2 Yards) to the Idaho 2Similar
Q3 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.8%
Johnston White run for no gain to the Idaho 2Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.1%
Johnston White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
98.3%
Jake Luton pass intercepted Rocky Hayes return for no gain to the Idaho 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:2499% → 100%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.1%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+9
99.1%
JD McKissic run for 9 yds to the Idaho 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.1%
James Tabary run for 2 yds to the Idaho 20Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
James Tabary pass complete to Tres Houston for 20 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 20TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:360% → 1%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.8%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
99.8%
Jake Luton run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+3
99.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Ja'Von Rolland-Jones) to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
99.9%
Luton, Jake pass incomplete to Epps, Dezmon, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Wagner, Nehemia) 15 yards to the ASU24, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
99.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Dezmon Epps for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
99.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Dezmon Epps for 8 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Jake Luton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
99.4%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+7
99.4%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
99.4%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dezmon Epps at the Idaho 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the Idaho 14Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+4
99.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 4 yds to the Idaho 18Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+10
99.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Callen Hightower for 10 yds to the Idaho 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.0%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Buck CowanSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
99.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Buck CowanSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-5
99.1%
Jake Luton sacked by Cameron Birse for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 23Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
99.1%
Austin Rehkow punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Idaho 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.5%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the Idaho 35 Johnston White fumbled, forced by Marc Millan, recovered by Idaho Quinton BradleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 24INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
99.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, US (Cody Brown) to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
99.1%
Penny, Elijhaa rush for loss of 1 yard to the ASU48 (Lain, Khari), PENALTY IDAHO HL (Rose, Jordan) 10 yards to the IDAHO43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+2
99.2%
Jake Luton pass intercepted Cody Brown return for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.5%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
99.5%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-7
99.5%
James Tabary sacked by Quinton Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Dezmon Epps at the Idaho 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 26TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 4:021% → 3%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
99.4%
Aaron Duckworth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 21Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+18
99.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Rueben Mwehla for 3 yds to the Idaho 24 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Dezmon Epps for 7 yds to the Idaho 46Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+10
99.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Dezmon Epps for 10 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Dezmon Epps for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
99.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Deon WatsonSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-21
99.2%
Jake Luton run for 6 yds to the Idaho 29 IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (Jake Manley) to the Idaho 44Similar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
99.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Dezmon Epps, broken up by Money Hunter for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Money Hunter) to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Dezmon Epps for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
99.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Dezmon EppsSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+22
99.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Buck Cowan for 22 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
Jake Luton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.1%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the Idaho 39Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+10
99.1%
Johnston White run for 10 yds to the Idaho 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:54
Jake Luton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q3 1:25
Johnston White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q3 8:44
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com