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GAST

Georgia State 34 at New Mexico State 32

NMSU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:03 · Anthony Torres punt for 46 yds , Kam Myers returns for 8 yds to the GeoSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense−2.4Pregame prior+4.3Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:10: Kyler Neal run for 5 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +12.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:51: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 33 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED) NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, IM ( Yards) declined — NMSU win probability +18.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 14:31: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 24 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +14.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:51: Larry Rose III run for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:47: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 29 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NMSU win probability +35.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:36GAST 4th & 3 at NMSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42NMSU 4th & 7 at GAST 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:58NMSU 4th & 1 at GAST 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−5.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:36GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:03NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:31GAST 4th & 13 at NMSU 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:00NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:21GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:27NMSU 4th & 4 at GAST 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:58GAST 4th & 3 at NMSU 5, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%−1.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−14.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:58NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 46, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:51GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:58GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 48, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−5.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:23NMSU 4th & 12 at GAST 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−23.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−31.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:31GAST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:20NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55GAST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:10GAST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:51NMSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:31GAST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:51NMSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:47NMSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    46.2%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    47.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 4:2443% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 5 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 13 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
56.8%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-5
56.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 9 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 25 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
56.8%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
56.8%
Taz Bateman run for no gain to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
56.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+19
56.5%
Wil Lutz 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:5457% → 56%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
56.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
56.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+8
56.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+14
56.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 14 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
57.2%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
57.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
56.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
56.3%
Anthony Torres punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:5644% → 49%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
56.4%
Taz Bateman run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
56.2%
Taz Bateman run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
56.2%
Taz Bateman run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+11
55.9%
Taz Bateman run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
55.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kam Myers for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 9
50
+6
55.8%
Kyler Neal run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
55.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
55.7%
Nick Arbuckle run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-2
55.7%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+18
55.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kam Myers for 18 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
55.4%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
55.4%
Kam Myers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
50.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 15 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
55.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 75 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 3:2544% → 52%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
55.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
55.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 11 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Nyiakki HeightSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
55.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Alex Stoehr) to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+10
55.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
55.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kam Myers for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
54.8%
Kyler Neal run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
54.5%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
54.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+29
53.7%
Marcus Caffey run for 29 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
53.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+4
53.0%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
47.9%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 2:5749% → 48%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.5%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
48.4%
Orryn Clark run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
49.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 7 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
49.6%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
50.0%
Larry Rose III run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
50.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 29 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
50.7%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
49.1%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
48.3%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
47.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Bruce DukesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:1252% → 46%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
47.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
47.8%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+10
54.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 3 yds for a TD Robert Davis fumbled, forced by Lewis Hill, recovered by NMxSt Jaden Wright , return for 10 yds, (Parker Davidson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
53.2%
Nyiakki Height run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 13
OWN 8
0
53.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Lewis HillSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 13
OWN 8
+7
54.2%
Taz Bateman run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+4
54.5%
Wil Lutz punt for 62 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 4 yds to the NMxSt 19 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
51.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
51.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 15
OWN 12
0
51.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+22
50.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 22 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
52.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Bobby Baker) to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
54.4%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+4
52.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 9
50
-6
52.7%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Alonzo McGee for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 15
OWN 44
+8
50.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 46 yds , Kam Myers returns for 8 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:2349% → 49%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+45
51.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 45 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
48.5%
Kyler Neal run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
48.1%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
48.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Nyiakki HeightSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 8
OPP 18
-5
48.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Michael Ivory) to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
49.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Kam MyersSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
51.0%
Wil Lutz 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
51.1%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Chandon Sullivan for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+10
50.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 10 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+27
49.8%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Nate Simon return for 27 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
37.4%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:1038% → 37%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.0%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
38.0%
Rogers, Tyler sacked for loss of 6 yards to the NMSU25 (Shaw, Michael), PENALTY GSU face mask (Shaw, Michael) 15 yards to the NMSU46, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
39.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
38.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Orryn Clark, broken up by Bruce DukesSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
37.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
36.6%
Anthony Torres punt for 41 yds , Kam Myers returns for no gain to the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:2162% → 66%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
38.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 3 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+25
38.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 25 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
34.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
34.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-5
34.8%
Clock 00:38, Arbuckle, Nick pass complete to Height, Nyiakki for 44 yards to the NMSU10 (Wright, Jaden;Rose, Winston), PENALTY GSU IF (Ivory, Michael) 5 yards to the GSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+6
35.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
34.4%
Wil Lutz punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0635% → 35%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
34.9%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+18
35.3%
Larry Rose III run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
36.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 9 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
36.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
36.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+7
35.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
35.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kam Myers at the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
34.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 6 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+8
34.5%
Kyler Neal run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
34.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 6 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-4
33.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Jaden Wright return for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
36.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
37.8%
Taylor, Tyrain rush for 1 yard to the GSU30 (Batiste, Tarris;Williams, Bryan), PENALTY NMSU holding (Granch, Clayton) 10 yards to the GSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+14
35.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 14 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
37.8%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
36.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Bergstrom, broken up by Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 4
OPP 25
0
34.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Bruce DukesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.5%
Marcus Caffey run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
30.7%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33 Marcus Caffey fumbled, forced by Kawe Johnson, recovered by NMxSt Terrill HanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
49.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 33 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED) NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, IM ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:5358% → 69%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.7%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
40.9%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+24
41.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 24 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
38.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+7
38.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
37.5%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+15
37.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 15 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
37.2%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
37.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
38.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
30.6%
Wil Lutz 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.9%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
30.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
31.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Jerome SmithSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
31.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 8 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
33.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
31.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 97 yds · 2:2172% → 92%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
27.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+5
28.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+51
27.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 51 yds to the NEWMEXST 35 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
23.6%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Rodney Butler for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+5
24.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
22.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 11 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
8.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 24 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4016% → 32%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Bergstrom, broken up by Bruce DukesSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
15.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 19 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
17.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 14 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
18.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
18.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Orryn Clark for 7 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
19.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
19.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 24 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
19.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Bruce DukesSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
32.3%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
22.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Davis Moore) to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
22.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+10
23.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
24.1%
Wil Lutz punt for 53 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for no gain to the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:2123% → 60%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
23.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 16 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
24.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
26.9%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
50
0
27.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
50
0
26.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Orryn Clark, broken up by Bruce Dukes NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 10
50
+21
24.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 21 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
60.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 29 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27PUNT
13 plays · 23 yds · 3:4958% → 67%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
41.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
41.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 6 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
39.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 6 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
38.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
39.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
37.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
27.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-1
26.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 8
OPP 47
-5
30.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
33.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28MISSED FG
16 plays · 48 yds · 2:3840% → 21%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
39.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
39.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
37.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
39.1%
Clock 02:07, PENALTY NMSU false start (Folasa-Lutui, I) 5 yards to the NMSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
38.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Jerome SmithSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+6
37.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 6 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+4
35.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 4 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+15
33.6%
Clock 01:15, Rogers, Tyler pass intercepted by Dukes, Bruce at the NMSU45, Dukes, Bruce return to the NMSU45, PENALTY GSU face mask (Hopson, Carnell) 15 yards to the GSU49, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
40.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 19 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
47.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Bergstrom, broken up by Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
45.9%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-5
35.9%
Clock 00:34, PENALTY NMSU false start (Cunningham, A.) 5 yards to the GSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
26.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Jerome SmithSimilar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+49
21.4%
Parker Davidson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
7.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:47
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 29 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+35.8
TD · Q3 8:51
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 33 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED) NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, IM ( Yards) declined
+18.7
TD · Q4 14:31
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 24 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com