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GAST

Georgia State 31 at Ball State 19

BALL
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:58 · Wil Lutz punt, downed at the BalSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 182Pregame prior+4.5Home team on offense−17.0Score differential−4.7Garbage-time factor−6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:44: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +7.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:51: Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +12.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Wil Lutz 50 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +6.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:41: Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Riley Neal intercepted ) — BALL win probability +23.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 2:13: Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:59GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:45BALL 4th & 3 at GAST 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:44BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:51BALL 4th & 3 at GAST 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−1.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00GAST 4th & 12 at BALL 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:53BALL 4th & 15 at GAST 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:46BALL 4th & 8 at GAST 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−7.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:58GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:21BALL 4th & 17 at BALL 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−3.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 19 at GAST 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−5.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:34GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 44, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:54BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 38, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:58GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:59BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:15GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:11BALL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:44GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:51GAST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:13GAST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
84.1%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
84.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 9 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
84.1%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+4
84.1%
Wil Lutz punt for 41 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 4 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
83.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 10 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
83.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
83.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 6 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
83.6%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
83.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
83.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
83.5%
Alex Egan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
82.9%
Neal, Kyler rush for loss of 2 yards to the GSU11 (TAYLOR, Aaron), PENALTY BALL personal foul (TAYLOR, Aaron) 15 yards to the GSU28, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
82.9%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
82.8%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+4
82.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
82.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:1482% → 82%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
82.3%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
82.5%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+6
82.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
82.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 8 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+3
82.7%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
82.7%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+4
82.7%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+11
82.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
82.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
82.8%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-2
82.7%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
81.8%
Morgan Hagee 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2418% → 24%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
81.8%
Arbuckle, Nick pass complete to Harden, Donovan for 11 yards to the GSU36, out-of-bounds, PENALTY GSU holding (Stoehr, Alex) 10 yards to the GSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+11
81.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 11 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+24
82.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
50
+2
81.1%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+12
81.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 12 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
81.1%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
80.8%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+12
81.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 12 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
80.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
80.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 15 yds Robert Davis fumbled, forced by David Moore, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.1%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD
19 plays · 77 yds · 4:5977% → 80%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
77.4%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
77.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+6
77.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Jerome SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
77.5%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
78.1%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
78.4%
James Gilbert run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
78.5%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
78.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Tarris BatisteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
78.4%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
78.9%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
78.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 7 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+1
78.4%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
78.9%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Jalen Schlachter) to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+3
78.8%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
78.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+16
78.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 16 yds to the GeoSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Dylan Curry for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2721% → 31%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.6%
Penny Hart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
78.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+28
78.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 28 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
77.0%
Kyler Neal run for 12 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
76.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 9 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+1
76.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
69.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Shawayne LawrenceSimilar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.0%
Darian Green run for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
72.6%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
71.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:4330% → 44%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
70.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 25 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
69.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+19
69.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 19 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
68.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Keith RuckerSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
68.7%
Khai Anderson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+11
69.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 11 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
68.5%
Jonathan Lytle run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
58.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
57.2%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.5%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
57.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 17 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
59.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
59.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
59.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
57.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Carnell HopsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:0648% → 56%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
52.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 28 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
51.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 5 yds to the BalSt 26 GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Donovan Harden) to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+11
52.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 11 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-5
52.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Gabe Mobley) to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-10
52.9%
Arbuckle, Nick pass complete to Kirk, Demarcus for 11 yards to the BALL24 (BOYD, Julian;WIGGINS, Sean), PENALTY GSU holding (Davidson, J.) 10 yards to the BALL45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 24
OPP 45
+12
53.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 12 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+50
44.5%
Wil Lutz 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
47.2%
Riley Neal run for 13 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
49.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+3
49.6%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
49.6%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+11
49.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
50.4%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
50.4%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-7
49.4%
Riley Neal sacked by Mackendy Cheridor for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 36 Riley Neal fumbled, recovered by BalSt James Gilbert , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 15
OPP 36
0
47.3%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0061% → 63%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
38.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 16 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
38.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
37.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
38.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+12
38.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 12 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
36.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Sean Wiggins for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+3
37.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 46 Demarcus Kirk fumbled, forced by Joshua Posley, recovered by BalSt Sean WigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:4138% → 38%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
38.0%
Darian Green run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+10
38.4%
Darian Green run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
39.2%
Riley Neal run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+1
39.2%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
38.3%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+5
38.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, offside defense (Julien Laurent) to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
39.2%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+4
38.6%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
38.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
37.5%
Morgan Hagee 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:4063% → 64%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
36.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 27 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
34.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 6 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-4
33.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
33.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny Hart, broken up by Martez HesterSimilar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
35.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:2335% → 29%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
35.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
35.1%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 19Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+13
33.5%
Riley Neal run for 13 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
36.0%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
35.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
37.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 3
50
0
38.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 3
50
+1
38.1%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-15
32.6%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to SHILLINGS, C. for 49 yards to the GSU0, clock 00:21, PENALTY BALL pass interference (WILLIAMS, Jord.) 15 yards to the BALL36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
28.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds, downed at the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1071% → 69%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
29.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
29.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 7 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
29.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
28.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
27.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-14
27.8%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 14 yards to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+24
30.7%
Wil Lutz punt for 47 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 24 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:0128% → 53%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
28.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Dylan Curry for 3 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
29.1%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+15
28.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 15 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
32.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
32.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cywettnie Brown for 5 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+5
30.4%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
53.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Riley Neal intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
36.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+12
37.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 12 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
35.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
34.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
34.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+9
36.6%
Wil Lutz punt for 49 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 9 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
42.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+6
45.7%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
43.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
43.7%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+3
42.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cywettnie Brown for 3 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
42.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 34 yds, downed at the GeoSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
28.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
29.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Demarcus Kirk, broken up by Keenan NoelSimilar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+5
30.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+15
31.0%
Lutz, Wil punt 51 yards to the BALL18, LACANARIA, C. return to the BALL29 (Werts, Ari), PENALTY BALL roughing the kicker (BROWN, C.) 15 yards to the GSU46, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
25.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
25.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
26.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
28.8%
Wil Lutz punt, downed at the BalSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 27%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
30.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
31.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Jerome SmithSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-5
29.8%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Jordan Hogue) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
28.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
26.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 44 yds, downed at the GeoSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:1381% → 97%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
19.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+68
17.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 68 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.5%
Nick Arbuckle run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.1%
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24INT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris Shillings, broken up by Tarris BatisteSimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
4.0%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to BROWN, C. for 9 yards to the BALL37, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BALL holding (BELL, Steven) 10 yards to the BALL18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+15
4.0%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Bryan Williams return for no gain to the GeoSt 18 GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Donovan Harden) to the GeoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
2.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-3
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 15
OWN 24
-3
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:41
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Riley Neal intercepted )
+23
TD · Q2 2:51
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q2 7:44
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com