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ARST

Arkansas State 7 at Toledo 37

TOL
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.6TOL 95.8%Jameson Vest 44 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 30 · Q3 8:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:34 · Jameson Vest 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Home team on offense+24.9Pregame prior+9.1Score differential+16.8Garbage-time factor+8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:02: James Tabary pass intercepted for a TD Rolan Milligan return for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +6.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:34: Terry Swanson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +7.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:22: Josh Rode kickoff for 57 yds , JD McKissic return for 92 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK) — ARST win probability +4.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 4:47: Jameson Vest 23 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +5.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:34: Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 12:07TOL 4th & 10 at ARST 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:03ARST 4th & 10 at TOL 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:21ARST 4th & 3 at TOL 3, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:21TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:48ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 41, down 10
    Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:26TOL 4th & 8 at ARST 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:56TOL 4th & 10 at ARST 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:47TOL 4th & 4 at ARST 6, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:38ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 41, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:18TOL 4th & 22 at ARST 33, up 20
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:56ARST 4th & 2 at TOL 47, down 20
    Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:34TOL 4th & 10 at ARST 27, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:30ARST 4th & 17 at TOL 33, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 38, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:40ARST 4th & 7 at TOL 14, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:40ARST 4th & 8 at TOL 8, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:27ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 38, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:23TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:02TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:34TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:22ARST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:34TOL Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:3773% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+23
72.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 23 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
72.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
72.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
72.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+35
72.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 35 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1173% → 73%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.2%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
73.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+13
73.1%
ELY, Phillip pass complete to JONES, Corey for loss of 1 yard to the ASU28 (Woodson, Xavier), PENALTY ASU personal foul 13 yards to the ASU14, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
73.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
73.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
73.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
73.2%
Jameson Vest 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+36
73.1%
James Tabary pass complete to Blake Mack for 36 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.9%
Blake Mack run for no gain to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
72.9%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
72.9%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
73.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 38 yds, downed at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+16
73.3%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
73.3%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 17Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
73.3%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+2
73.2%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Ja'Von Rolland-Jones return for 2 yds to the Toled 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3227% → 26%
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
72.7%
James Tabary run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 11 James Tabary fumbled, recovered by ArkSt James TabarySimilar
Q1 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
72.8%
James Tabary pass incomplete to JD McKissicSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
73.7%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 8 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
74.2%
Drew White 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
74.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
73.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
73.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
73.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 44 yds , Chris Murray returns for no gain to the ArkSt 34 Chris Murray fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
74.5%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
74.6%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
74.3%
James Tabary pass incomplete to JD McKissic, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
74.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
74.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for 8 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
75.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
74.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 15 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
75.3%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
75.3%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
75.1%
Phillip Ely run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
75.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-6
75.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+8
75.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 8 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
75.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
74.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10INT TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3124% → 18%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
75.9%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+18
76.0%
James Tabary pass complete to Warren Leapheart for 18 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
75.4%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Daniel Keith) to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 17
OWN 20
+10
75.6%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 10 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
75.3%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+36
81.7%
James Tabary pass intercepted for a TD Rolan Milligan return for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0218% → 18%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
81.7%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
81.7%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Tres Houston, broken up by Christian DukesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
81.8%
James Tabary pass intercepted Chaz Whittaker return for no gain to the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:4983% → 84%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
83.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-10
83.2%
JONES-MOORE, D. rush for 6 yards to the ASU45 (Roberson, W.), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (PERSCHON, Paul) 10 yards to the TOLEDO39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+22
82.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 22 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
84.3%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Rocky HayesSimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
84.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
84.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
83.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Chris Murray at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
82.8%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+14
82.7%
James Tabary pass complete to Warren Leapheart for 14 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-7
81.2%
Tabary, James pass complete to Paschal, Dijon for 53 yards to the TOLEDO18 (DUKES,Christian), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Paschal, Dijon) 15 yards to the ASU14, PENALTY ASU personal foul (Houston, Tres) 7 yards to the ASU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 32
OWN 7
+2
83.1%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 30
OWN 9
-5
83.2%
James Tabary sacked by Treyvon Hester for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 3 James Tabary fumbled, recovered by Toled Trent Voss , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.2%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16FG
20 plays · 69 yds · 6:3586% → 92%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
85.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
85.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
85.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+9
86.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 9 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
87.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
87.2%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+22
87.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Marc Remy for 7 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Ja'Von Rolland-Jones) to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
87.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo Russell, broken up by Xavier WoodsonSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
87.3%
ELY, Phillip pass incomplete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (CARTER, Ruben) 10 yards to the ASU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+12
87.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 12 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+13
87.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 13 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
87.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Storm Norton) to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+8
87.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 8 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
87.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
87.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo Russell, broken up by Rocky HayesSimilar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
92.2%
Jameson Vest 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
90.4%
James Tabary run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 43 James Tabary fumbled,Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 16
OWN 43
-7
91.3%
James Tabary sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 23
OWN 36
+5
91.4%
James Tabary pass complete to Michael Gordon for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
91.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 2:2793% → 95%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
93.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
93.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo Russell, broken up by Rocky HayesSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+19
93.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 19 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
93.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
93.5%
Marc Remy run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.6%
Phillip Ely run for no gain to the ArkSt 41 Phillip Ely fumbled, recovered by Toled Phillip ElySimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+20
93.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Donovan Ransom) to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
93.7%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
93.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 22
OPP 33
0
93.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 22
OPP 33
0
95.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
93.2%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+11
93.1%
James Tabary pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 11 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.3%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
93.3%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+4
93.3%
James Tabary pass complete to Warren Wand for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
93.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 37 yds, downed at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:0695% → 96%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
95.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+13
95.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 13 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
95.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+33
95.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 33 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
95.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
95.3%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
95.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Corey Jones) to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
95.3%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
95.3%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Terry SwansonSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+5
95.1%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
95.8%
Jameson Vest 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
95.8%
James Tabary pass intercepted Jaylen Coleman return for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
12 plays · 4 yds · 2:5796% → 97%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
96.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
96.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
96.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+12
96.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 12 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
96.0%
ELY, Phillip pass incomplete to RUSSELL, Alonzo, PENALTY TOLEDO false start 5 yards to the ASU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 15
OPP 26
0
96.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Damion Jones-Moore, broken up by Cody BrownSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+16
95.9%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-20
96.0%
Phillip Ely run for a loss of 20 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 30
0
97.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon Wilcher, broken up by Money HunterSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 30
-8
97.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for a loss of 8 yards Alonzo Russell fumbled, forced by Justin Clifton, recovered by Toled Phillip ElySimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 39
+3
97.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 18 , Chris Murray returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 49 yds · 3:563% → 2%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
96.7%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+6
96.5%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
96.5%
James Tabary sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+8
96.8%
James Tabary pass complete to Blake Mack for 8 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
96.7%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 9 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.5%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
96.5%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+31
96.5%
James Tabary pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 31 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
95.9%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-8
96.0%
James Tabary sacked by Keenen Gibbs for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 33 James Tabary fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Devin Mondie , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 17
OPP 33
0
96.4%
James Tabary pass incomplete to JD McKissic, broken up by Allen CovingtonSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 17
OPP 33
0
98.3%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Tyler Trosin, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2299% → 99%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
98.9%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
99.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
98.9%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Clifford ThomasSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+10
98.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 26 , Chris Murray returns for 10 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 57 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
98.3%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
98.3%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+46
98.2%
James Tabary pass complete to Warren Wand for 31 yds to the TOLEDO 32 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (DeJuan Rogers) to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
97.9%
James Tabary sacked by John Stepec for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+10
98.0%
James Tabary pass complete to Blake Mack for 10 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
98.1%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Tres Houston, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+8
98.2%
James Tabary pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 8 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
98.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.1%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Cheatham NorrilsSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
97.9%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q4 14:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-9
98.2%
James Tabary sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.9%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 5:3299% → 100%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
99.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+2
99.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+10
99.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+37
99.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 37 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+5
99.3%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.3%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.3%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+14
99.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 14 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
James Tabary pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 6 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
99.9%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Connery SwiftSimilar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 42 yds , Kennedy Frazier returns for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29Uncategorized
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.9%
Michael Julian run for 8 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Brad Smith run for 5 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Brad Smith run for 3 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Brad Smith run for 5 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+7
99.9%
Michael Julian run for 7 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Brad Smith run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:34
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+7
TD · Q1 0:02
James Tabary pass intercepted for a TD Rolan Milligan return for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+6.4
FG · Q2 4:47
Jameson Vest 23 yd FG GOOD
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com