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ULM

UL Monroe 26 at Hawai'i 28

HAW
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFUMBLEEnd of GameFG-1.1HAW 70.5%Craig Ford 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 5:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:13 · Craig Ford 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+17.9Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:04: Ikaika Woolsey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Novoa KICK) — HAW win probability +7.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:12: Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Harold Moleni for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Novoa KICK) — HAW win probability +7.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:34: Ikaika Woolsey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Novoa KICK) — HAW win probability +10.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:42: Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 13 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +9.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 3:03: TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Lorenzo Jackson for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ULM win probability +21.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:12HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:47ULM 4th & 2 at HAW 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13ULM 4th & 6 at HAW 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:07HAW 4th & 10 at ULM 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    68.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ULM 4th & 13 at ULM 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:29HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:17ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:58ULM 4th & 23 at ULM 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:37ULM 4th & 4 at HAW 22, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:56ULM 4th & 8 at HAW 8, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−6.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:51HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 13, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:35HAW 4th & 8 at ULM 39, up 8
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−0.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:20ULM 4th & 6 at HAW 39, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−2.0
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.3%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00HAW 4th & 19 at HAW 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−5.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:32ULM 4th & 23 at ULM 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−5.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:59HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−2.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:10ULM 4th & 6 at HAW 11, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−11.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:52HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:04HAW Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:12HAW Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:24ULM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:34HAW Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:42ULM Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.3%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.3%
Ben Luckett run for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
71.3%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
71.3%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
71.3%
De'Vonte Haggerty run for 4 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-1
71.3%
Earnest Carrington sacked by Kory Rasmussen for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+48
71.3%
Chris Qualls punt for 41 yds HAWAII Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the Hawa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
70.9%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
70.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+2
70.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 2 yds to the Hawa 12Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 5
OWN 12
-3
70.7%
Aaron Novoa punt for 35 yds , Junior Williams returns for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line Junior Williams fumbled, recovered by Hawa Damien Packer , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:5671% → 73%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
50
+8
71.1%
Paul Harris run for 8 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
71.1%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
71.1%
Paul Harris run for 14 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
71.2%
Paul Harris run for 13 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
71.2%
Paul Harris run for no gain to the LaMon 12Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
72.8%
Paul Harris run for 12 yds for a TD, (Aaron Novoa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:3428% → 30%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
72.1%
Ben Luckett run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
50
+5
71.6%
Ben Luckett run for 5 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
71.6%
Earnest Carrington run for 2 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
71.6%
De'Vonte Haggerty run for 1 yd to the Hawa 42Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+5
71.9%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Jared Mapps for 5 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
71.6%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 20 yds to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
71.3%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 4 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
71.3%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Kaylon WatsonSimilar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
71.6%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
70.5%
Craig Ford 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
70.7%
Paul Harris run for 4 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+3
70.7%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-5
70.5%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 21Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+40
70.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 40 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
71.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
71.5%
Justin Vele run for no gain to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
71.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+36
70.6%
Aaron Novoa punt for 33 yds, downed at the LaMon 6 UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (3 Yards) to the LaMon 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:1530% → 29%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
70.5%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 5 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+4
70.6%
Kaylon Watson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+5
70.8%
Ben Luckett run for 5 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
70.3%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
70.3%
Ben Luckett run for 5 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
70.1%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
69.9%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for a loss of 3 yards Ajalen Holley fumbled, forced by Benetton Fonua, recovered by LaMon Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Chris Qualls punt for 58 yds, downed at the Hawa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
69.9%
Paul Harris run for 6 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
70.1%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-1
69.6%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 25Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 2
OWN 25
-5
68.9%
HAWAII Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 20Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
68.8%
Jahlani Tavai punt for 61 yds, downed at the LaMon 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
69.7%
DeVontae McNeal run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 18 DeVontae McNeal fumbled, recovered by LaMon DeVontae McNealSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-9
70.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (-9 Yards) to the LaMon 9Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+13
70.2%
Earnest Carrington run for 13 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
70.4%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Jalen RogersSimilar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
71.0%
Chris Qualls punt for 53 yds, downed at the Hawa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:3370% → 79%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
69.8%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 15 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.8%
Paul Harris run for no gain to the Hawa 41Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
70.3%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 5 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+33
70.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 33 yds to the LaMon 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
71.8%
Paul Harris run for 8 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
71.8%
Paul Harris run for 4 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
71.8%
Paul Harris run for 1 yd to the LaMon 8Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
79.2%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Novoa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
77.5%
DeVontae McNeal run for 12 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
77.0%
Earnest Carrington sacked by Jalen Rogers for a loss of 9 yards to the LaMon 25 UL MONROE Penalty, intentional grounding (Earnest Carrington) to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 19
OWN 25
-4
77.8%
DeVontae McNeal run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 23
OWN 21
0
78.4%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ben Luckett, broken up by Ne'Quan PhillipsSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 23
OWN 21
+34
78.8%
Chris Qualls punt for 34 yds , Dylan Collie returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:2580% → 87%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
79.6%
Paul Harris run for 10 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+27
79.7%
Paul Harris run for 27 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
79.7%
Paul Harris run for 4 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
79.7%
Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+7
79.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Michael Johnson) to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
79.6%
Paul Harris run for 1 yd to the LaMon 5Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Harold Moleni for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Novoa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 1:4314% → 22%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
86.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 8 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
85.4%
HAWAII Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
85.8%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 9 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+24
84.9%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 9 yds to the HAWAII 43 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Nick Nelson) to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.0%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
84.4%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Jared Mapps for 2 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+4
85.3%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 4 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+12
84.4%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Xavier Brown for 12 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
84.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jalen Rogers) to the Hawa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.8%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Xavier Brown for 3 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
81.3%
Paul Harris run for 4 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:2081% → 92%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
81.0%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-3
81.0%
Paul Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 22Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+10
80.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive holding (Marcus Hubbard) to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
81.1%
Paul Harris run for 11 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
82.0%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 10 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
82.2%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+9
82.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 9 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
82.2%
Justin Vele run for 4 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+25
82.2%
Paul Harris run for 25 yds to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.4%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Novoa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:3311% → 12%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
89.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 17 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
88.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Keaton Baggs) to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+18
89.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 18 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
87.7%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+10
86.8%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 10 yds to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
86.8%
Kaylon Watson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+15
86.8%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 15 yds to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
86.8%
De'Vonte Haggerty run for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 15Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
87.7%
Earnest Carrington run for 5 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
88.0%
Earnest Carrington run for 2 yds to the Hawa 8Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
87.6%
Craig Ford 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
89.5%
Paul Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 13Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 13
OWN 13
0
89.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Justin Vele for no gain to the Hawa 13Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
88.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
88.5%
Jahlani Tavai punt for 47 yds, downed at the LaMon 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:4812% → 24%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
87.8%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Xavier Brown for 7 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
87.4%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
87.7%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 4 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+30
87.2%
Earnest Carrington run for 30 yds to the Hawa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
86.0%
Earnest Carrington run for 5 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
76.3%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 13 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+28
84.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Makoa Camanse-Stevens for 13 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
86.0%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 2 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
85.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Devan Stubblefield, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
85.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Metuisela 'UngaSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
84.0%
Aaron Novoa punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.1%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
83.3%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 12 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
82.6%
Kaylon Watson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
82.2%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Ne'Quan PhillipsSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+21
83.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 6 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Makani Kema-Kaleiwahea) to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
80.3%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
80.5%
Kaylon Watson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
80.7%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Jared Mapps, broken up by Jalen RogersSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
82.0%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
85.7%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 8 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
86.2%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 1 yd to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
85.4%
Ikaika Woolsey run for no gain to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+4
84.3%
Penitito Faalologo run for 4 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
86.0%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 2 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
85.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-11
85.2%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Cody Robinson for a loss of 11 yards to the Hawa 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 24
0
83.7%
Aaron Novoa punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Junior Williams at the LaMon 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0016% → 13%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
84.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Keaton Baggs) to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
85.0%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Gaetano DeMatteiSimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+1
85.2%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to De'Vonte Haggerty for 1 yd to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-9
86.2%
Earnest Carrington sacked by David Manoa for a loss of 9 yards to the LaMon 23 Earnest Carrington fumbled, recovered by LaMon Jeff Savage , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 23
OWN 23
0
86.7%
Chris Qualls punt for 38 yds, downed at the Hawa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
88.9%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 3 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-1
89.1%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 41Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
88.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Metuisela 'UngaSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
87.2%
Aaron Novoa punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 65 yds · 1:0813% → 16%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
87.3%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 5 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+3
86.6%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+9
86.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 9 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
85.4%
Ben Luckett run for 19 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
82.7%
Earnest Carrington run for no gain to the Hawa 46Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
83.0%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+13
84.5%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Jared Mapps for 13 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
81.0%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 18 yds to the Hawa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
80.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 11Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
80.4%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
82.3%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 6
OPP 11
-6
84.5%
Earnest Carrington sacked by David Manoa and Kory Rasmussen for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -17 yds · 1:3493% → 71%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
92.6%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 2 yds to the Hawa 19Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-2
92.4%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 17Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
71.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Lorenzo Jackson for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25END OF GAME
12 plays · 35 yds · 1:2174% → 87%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for no gain to the Hawa 25Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.4%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 4 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
73.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Makoa Camanse-Stevens for 14 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
77.9%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 8 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+15
86.4%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 15 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
87.9%
HAWAII Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Devan Stubblefield) to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
86.0%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 8 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
86.7%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 3 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
86.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q4 3:03
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Lorenzo Jackson for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-21.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+13.5
TD · Q3 11:34
Ikaika Woolsey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Novoa KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com