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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:06 · Alex Boy punt for 30 yds, downed at the NEVADA 45 HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Hawa 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:24: Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 9 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +16.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:12: James Butler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +7.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:41: Rigoberto Sanchez 47 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +12.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:02: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +24.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:01: Brent Zuzo 30 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +8.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it31.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.9%average punt
- Q1 14:17NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snapGo for it67.9%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%average punt
- Q1 12:00HAW 4th & 11 at NEV 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.2%−<0.127% to convertField goal32.2%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call32.2%average punt
- Q1 9:29NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 13, tiedClose callPunted · 67.0% before the snapGo for it67.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:12HAW 4th & 7 at NEV 32, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.4%37% to convertField goalTheir call33.4%−<0.151% to makePunt33.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:06NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snapGo for it65.0%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%average punt
- Q1 4:20HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 43, up 3Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:12NEV 4th & 4 at HAW 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.5%48% to convertField goal56.3%−0.358% to makePunt53.9%−2.7average punt
- Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snapGo for it46.4%−1.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.1%average punt
- Q3 12:59HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 43, up 7Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snapGo for it55.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.3%−0.2average punt
- Q3 7:43NEV 4th & 6 at HAW 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snapGo for it44.1%−0.736% to convertField goalTheir call44.8%86% to makePunt33.0%−11.8average punt
- Q4 9:01NEV 4th & 4 at HAW 13, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snapGo for it61.3%46% to convertField goalTheir call60.2%−1.185% to makePunt39.8%−21.5average punt
- Q4 8:54HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it28.7%−0.737% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.4%average punt
- Q4 6:39NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snapGo for it69.2%−0.951% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 13:12HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.7%97% to makeGo for two43.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:24HAW Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:12NEV Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.7%97% to makeGo for two43.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:02NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.2%97% to makeGo for two54.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:20NEV Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 14:17
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+13
66.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 13 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-8
66.0%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Jerrol Garcia-Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 14:17
4TH & 11
OWN 29
+37
65.9%
Alex Boy punt for 66 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 37 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+15
65.7%
Max Wittek pass complete to Paul Harris for 15 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+5
65.2%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to HENDERSON, H., PENALTY UH offside (TULIMASEALII, K) 5 yards to the NEV13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
65.3%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Nick NelsonSimilar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 2
OWN 13
+22
65.1%
Alex Boy punt for 44 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 22 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5FG6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1536% → 36%
Q1 8:27
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-2
64.4%
Steven Lakalaka run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 30 Steven Lakalaka fumbled, recovered by Hawa Steven LakalakaSimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-5
64.7%
WOOLSEY, Ikaika pass complete to COLLIE, Dylan for 5 yards to the NEV25 (LANE JR., Bryan;BABER, Dameon), PENALTY UH illegal motion 5 yards to the NEV35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+8
64.8%
Max Wittek pass complete to Steven Lakalaka for 8 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
HAWDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
NEVDrive 8INT10 plays · 46 yds · 2:2463% → 65%
Q1 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
63.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 10 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+18
63.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 18 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+36
64.5%
Tyler Stewart pass intercepted Dany Mulanga return for 36 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD2 plays · 43 yds · 0:2640% → 45%
NEVDrive 10DOWNS9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 13:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
53.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 13 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
55.4%
Tyler Stewart run for 25 yds to the NEVADA 35 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
57.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+2
55.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 2 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11TD11 plays · 73 yds · 4:1947% → 67%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
53.4%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 15 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
52.4%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+18
52.4%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Rykeem Yates) to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+7
50.0%
Max Wittek pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 7 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
50.0%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dakota Torres for 6 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
33.1%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 9 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD14 plays · 52 yds · 4:0541% → 44%
NEVDrive 13FG5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1843% → 47%
Q2 1:11
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
42.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Julian GenerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14INT8 plays · 26 yds · 0:4254% → 57%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
44.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 8 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+7
42.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 7 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
42.6%
Max Wittek sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 17
OPP 49
0
43.1%
Max Wittek pass intercepted Elijah Mitchell return for no gain to the Nevad 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
44.1%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 5 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
43.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 6 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
42.1%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 3 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
44.1%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17FG9 plays · 60 yds · 3:3245% → 52%
HAWDrive 18FG11 plays · 46 yds · 3:0250% → 65%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 5 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
49.1%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 9 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
47.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+19
46.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dakota Torres for 19 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
45.3%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Isaiah Bernard, broken up by Elijah MoodySimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-10
47.3%
Max Wittek sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 29 HAWAII Penalty, intentional grounding (Max Wittek) to the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3940% → 66%
Q3 4:41
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-10
44.6%
JACKSON, Don rush for 4 yards to the UH32 (GENER, Julian), PENALTY NEV holding (MACAULEY, J.) 10 yards to the UH46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+7
42.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 7 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+21
36.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 21 yds to the Hawa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
41.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Nick NelsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
41.5%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to RICHARDSON, J., PENALTY UH holding (TAVAI, Jahlani) 9 yards to the UH9, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20INT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
NEVDrive 21FG7 plays · 25 yds · 3:5665% → 73%
Q4 12:57
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+2
65.9%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 13 Don Jackson fumbled, forced by Julian Gener, recovered by Nevad Jacob HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
NEVDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0073% → 70%
Q4 6:39
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+1
70.2%
Alex Boy punt for 43 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 1 yd to the Hawa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24INT3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0033% → 29%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
66.8%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-8
63.7%
Max Wittek sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 33Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+24
70.9%
Max Wittek pass intercepted Jordan Dobrich return for 24 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25TD5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3384% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26FUMBLE6 plays · 49 yds · 0:005% → 7%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
95.1%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 24 yds to the NEVADA 47 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Devan Stubblefield) to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+28
95.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 28 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
93.4%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 12 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
93.5%
Max Wittek sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 22 Max Wittek fumbled, recovered by Nevad Ian Seau , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27END OF GAME4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0596% → 96%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:02
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+24.4
TD · Q2 5:24
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 9 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)
-16.9
FG · Q3 4:41
Rigoberto Sanchez 47 yd FG GOOD
-12