Try the model
UCD

UC Davis 27 at Hawai'i 47

HAW
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Aloha Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreUCD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-1.7HAW 91.8%Brady Stuart 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 5:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:08 · Brady Stuart 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior+40.3Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:56: Ben Scott pass complete to Derek Baljeu for 8 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK) — UCD win probability +11.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:56: Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 14 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +3.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:18: Paul Harris run for 95 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +7.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:31: Melvin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez PAT BLOCKED) — HAW win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:52: Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 69 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK) — UCD win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 4UCD made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UCD 4th & 4 at UCD 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:12HAW 4th & 20 at HAW 41, tied
    Close callWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08UCD 4th & 5 at HAW 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:02HAW 4th & 4 at UCD 10, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UCD 4th & 9 at HAW 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:41HAW 4th & 6 at UCD 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.8%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:38UCD 4th & 5 at HAW 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:20UCD 4th & 1 at HAW 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−2.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:22UCD 4th & 7 at HAW 39, down 16
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:54UCD 4th & 9 at UCD 26, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:53UCD 4th & 9 at HAW 9, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 1:56UCD Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:56HAW Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:18HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:31HAW Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:02HAW Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:52UCD Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:28HAW Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.6%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 4 yds to the UCDav 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
94.6%
Ben Scott run for 2 yds to the UCDav 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Chris MartinSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+11
94.6%
Colby Wadman punt for 51 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 11 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
94.3%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
94.3%
Max Wittek run for 4 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+10
94.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 10 yds to the UCDav 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
94.3%
Max Wittek sacked by Kyle DeVaughn for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+4
94.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Paul Harris for 4 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 12
OWN 49
-8
94.3%
Max Wittek sacked by Ryan Bua for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 41 Max Wittek fumbled, recovered by Hawa Paul Harris , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 20
OWN 41
-10
94.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Hawa 31 Rigoberto Sanchez fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 3FG
11 plays · 26 yds · 5:257% → 8%
Q1 10:33
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+11
93.5%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 11 yds to the Hawa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
93.5%
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the Hawa 12Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
93.5%
Justin Williams run for 3 yds to the Hawa 9Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+6
93.5%
Ben Scott pass complete to Alex Cannon for 6 yds to the Hawa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
93.5%
Manusamoa Luuga run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 5Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.5%
Manusamoa Luuga run for no gain to the Hawa 5Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.5%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Manusamoa Luuga, broken up by Marrell JacksonSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
93.5%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Hawa 26Similar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+1
93.5%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
93.5%
Manusamoa Luuga run for no gain to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 5:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+21
91.8%
Brady Stuart 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:0292% → 91%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
91.7%
Paul Harris run for 4 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+17
91.7%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 17 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
91.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 27 yds to the UCDav 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
92.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the UCDav 28Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+12
92.2%
Paul Harris run for 12 yds to the UCDav 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
92.2%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the UCDav 13Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
92.2%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Darryl GrahamSimilar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+3
92.0%
Max Wittek run for 3 yds to the UCDav 10Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
91.4%
Rigoberto Sanchez 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:029% → 10%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCDav 27Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
90.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCDav 29Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
91.0%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 18 yds to the UCDav 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
90.5%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Hawa 48Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+8
89.5%
Justin Williams run for 8 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
89.6%
Justin Williams run for 4 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-4
89.5%
Justin Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+1
89.8%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd to the Hawa 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
90.1%
Colby Wadman punt for 30 yds, downed at the Hawa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:3789% → 89%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
89.4%
Melvin Davis run for no gain to the Hawa 9Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+18
89.4%
Melvin Davis run for 18 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
89.6%
Melvin Davis run for 2 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
89.6%
Melvin Davis run for 3 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
89.4%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 3 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+5
89.2%
UC DAVIS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
89.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 27 yds to the UCDav 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.4%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
90.4%
Melvin Davis run for 4 yds to the UCDav 29Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
90.1%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
88.9%
Rigoberto Sanchez 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:4511% → 24%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.7%
Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 3 yds to the UCDav 28Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
88.6%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UCDav 33Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
88.2%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 5 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
88.2%
Manusamoa Luuga run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 36Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+14
88.7%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
50
0
87.7%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Ramon VargasSimilar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 10
50
+4
87.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+21
87.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 21 yds to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.3%
Manusamoa Luuga run for no gain to the Hawa 25Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
87.4%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 6 yds to the Hawa 19Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+10
87.7%
Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 10 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
87.3%
Justin Williams run for 1 yd to the Hawa 8Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
76.1%
Ben Scott pass complete to Derek Baljeu for 8 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:4483% → 87%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
83.0%
Max Wittek pass complete to Paul Harris for 13 yds to the UCDav 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
83.0%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Isiah OlaveSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
83.0%
Paul Harris run for 8 yds to the UCDav 14Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
86.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 14 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 9END OF HALF
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:1015% → 18%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
85.5%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 19Similar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+3
85.6%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 3 yds to the UCDav 22Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+5
85.4%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 5 yds to the UCDav 27Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+11
85.6%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 11 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
84.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 9 yds to the UCDav 47Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+7
83.0%
Ben Scott pass complete to Alex Cannon for 7 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
82.8%
Ben Scott pass complete to Nehemiah Winston for 6 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-7
82.5%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for a loss of 7 yards Manusamoa Luuga fumbled, forced by Julian Gener, recovered by UCDav Chris SchneiderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.5%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 7 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
86.6%
Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
86.2%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (RJ Hollis) to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
85.4%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
84.7%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
84.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd to the UCDav 7Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+6
85.0%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 6 yds to the UCDav 13Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+11
85.3%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 11 yds to the UCDav 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
84.6%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 14 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
83.7%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 4 yds to the UCDav 42Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
83.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the UCDav 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.8%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Ramon VargasSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
83.1%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 5 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
82.9%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Alex Cannon, broken up by Nick NelsonSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+44
84.0%
Colby Wadman punt for 42 yds HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (2 Yards) to the Hawa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12TD
2 plays · 98 yds · 0:3683% → 90%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
82.9%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the Hawa 5Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+95
90.1%
Paul Harris run for 95 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:5110% → 10%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
90.0%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 24Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+32
90.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 32 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
88.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 5 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
88.7%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 4 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
88.8%
Manusamoa Luuga run for no gain to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
90.4%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd to the Hawa 34 Manusamoa Luuga fumbled, forced by Nick Nelson, recovered by Hawa Marrell JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:4391% → 97%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+28
91.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 28 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
92.0%
Paul Harris run for 7 yds to the UCDav 31Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+11
92.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 11 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
92.3%
Melvin Davis run for 6 yds to the UCDav 14Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+13
92.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 13 yds to the UCDav 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Melvin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
94.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 3 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
94.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for no gain to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
95.0%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Ramon VargasSimilar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
95.1%
Colby Wadman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nick Nelson at the Hawa 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16TD
11 plays · 97 yds · 3:4296% → 99%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
96.3%
Melvin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 2Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+39
96.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 39 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
96.6%
Melvin Davis run for 4 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
96.6%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+10
96.5%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 10 yds to the UCDav 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
96.8%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 25 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
96.9%
Melvin Davis run for 3 yds to the UCDav 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-5
96.9%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+3
96.9%
UC DAVIS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Vincent White) to the UCDav 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
96.9%
Melvin Davis run for no gain to the UCDav 19Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 19 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 17TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:581% → 4%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
99.1%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 5 yds to the UCDav 22 UC DAVIS Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the UCDav 12Similar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+14
99.1%
Ben Scott run for 14 yds to the UCDav 26Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+5
99.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCDav 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
95.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 69 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:2497% → 99%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
97.2%
Paul Harris run for 10 yds to the UCDav 45 for a 1ST down UC DAVIS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UCDav 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.4%
Paul Harris run for no gain to the UCDav 40Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
97.3%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+35
97.3%
Max Wittek run for 20 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST down UC DAVIS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UCDav 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.4%
Melvin Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 19PUNT TD
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:341% → 0%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Derek Baljeu for 3 yds to the UCDav 28Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
99.2%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 26Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Manusamoa LuugaSimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+26
99.9%
Colby Wadman punt blocked by Dejaun Butler blocked by Dejaun Butler Dejaun Butler return for 26 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
HAWAII Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Hawa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 21TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 4:440% → 0%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
100.0%
Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 12 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
100.0%
Ben Scott pass complete to Brandyn Lee for 9 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
100.0%
Mitchell Layton run for 4 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
100.0%
Mitchell Layton run for 4 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
99.9%
Mitchell Layton run for 4 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+4
100.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
99.9%
C.J. Spencer pass complete to Alex Cannon for 7 yds to the Hawa 14Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
100.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 14 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 23FG
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
100.0%
Mitchell Layton run for 2 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Mitchell Layton run for no gain to the Hawa 4Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 0
OPP 4
-5
100.0%
UC DAVIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 9Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
100.0%
C.J. Spencer pass incomplete to Chris MartinSimilar
Q4 0:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
100.0%
Brady Stuart 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 34Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:56
Ben Scott pass complete to Derek Baljeu for 8 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q3 8:18
Paul Harris run for 95 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q3 3:31
Melvin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez PAT BLOCKED)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com