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ODU

Old Dominion 31 at Southern Miss 56

USM
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:46 · Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor Marini, broken up by Brandon Addison
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+20.1Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:46: Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK) — ODU win probability +15.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:30: Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 64 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK) — ODU win probability +19.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:51: Ito Smith run for 19 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +15.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 1:34: Jalen Richard run for 10 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +19.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:16: Jalen Richard run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +14.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58USM 4th & 6 at ODU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:40ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:19ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ODU 4th & 2 at USM 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:22ODU 4th & 1 at USM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−1.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:26USM 4th & 17 at ODU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12ODU 4th & 5 at USM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:46USM 4th & 6 at ODU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:34USM 4th & 1 at ODU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−3.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−12.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:34USM 4th & 1 at ODU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−4.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−17.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:16ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:11ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:16USM 4th & 9 at ODU 37, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:16ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:03ODU 4th & 2 at USM 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:19USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:38USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:05ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:53USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:46ODU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:30ODU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:51USM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:34USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:16USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:11USM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:03USM Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ODUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.4%
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd to the ODU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
91.4%
Jeremy Cox run for 3 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-4
91.4%
David Washington pass complete to Jeremy Cox for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+16
91.4%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 45 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 16 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
91.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 13 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
91.0%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the ODU 37Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
91.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
91.0%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
90.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 34 yds, downed at the ODU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
90.6%
Jeremy Cox run for 7 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 10
0
90.5%
David Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
90.6%
David Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 3
OWN 10
+34
90.6%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 34 yds , Jalen Richard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:2091% → 91%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
90.5%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+15
90.5%
MULLENS, Nick deep pass incomplete to THOMAS, Michael (ADDISON, B.), PENALTY ODU pass interference (ADDISON, B.) 15 yards to the ODU25, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
90.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 10 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
90.5%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
90.5%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the ODU 10Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+9
90.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 9 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.9%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.5%
David Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
90.5%
Jeremy Cox run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 18Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+6
90.6%
David Washington run for 6 yds to the ODU 25 David Washington fumbled, forced by D'Nerius Antoine,Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-2
90.6%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 50 yds , Jalen Richard returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:2990% → 89%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
90.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
90.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+12
90.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 12 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
90.6%
RICHARD, Jalen rush up middle for no gain to the USM41 (CARTER, Sean;REID, Terrell), PENALTY USM holding 10 yards to the USM31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 20
OWN 31
0
90.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Oshane XiminesSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+20
90.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
90.6%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the ODU 48Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+33
88.8%
Nick Mullens sacked by Terrell Reid for a loss of 6 yards Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by ODU Martez Simpson , return for 0 yards , return for 33 yds, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:3388% → 90%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
88.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Brandon AddisonSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
88.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+18
88.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 18 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
88.8%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to SMITH, Ito for loss of 6 yards to the USM45 (BARNWELL, P.), PENALTY ODU face mask (BARNWELL, P.) 15 yards to the ODU34, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
90.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 34 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3311% → 16%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
89.5%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 11 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.2%
Shuler Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
89.3%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 7 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+3
89.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
89.1%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 1 yd to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
88.6%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+7
88.9%
Jeremy Cox run for 7 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+4
88.9%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 4 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
88.3%
Jeremy Cox run for 16 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
84.4%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 16 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9INT
14 plays · 55 yds · 0:0087% → 88%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.5%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
86.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Bunmi RotimiSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+14
86.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 14 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
87.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
86.9%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+1
87.1%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
87.2%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
87.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+7
87.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 7 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
87.5%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+5
87.5%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the ODU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
87.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 7 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+52
87.5%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Fellonte Misher return for 52 yds to the SoMis 0 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
80.7%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Marques LittleSimilar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
80.8%
Jeremy Cox run for 3 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
80.9%
Jeremy Cox run for 6 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
81.5%
Jeremy Cox run for no gain to the SoMis 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:3884% → 82%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
84.2%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+31
84.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 31 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
85.4%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the ODU 18Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-10
85.4%
RICHARD, Jalen rush for 2 yards to the ODU16, out-of-bounds (BARNWELL, P.), PENALTY USM holding 10 yards to the ODU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 14
OPP 28
0
84.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Poncho BarnwellSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+17
84.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 17 yds to the ODU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
85.4%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the ODU 11Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-7
84.8%
Nick Mullens sacked by Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 18Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 17
OPP 18
0
83.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 17
OPP 18
+35
81.7%
Stephen Brauchle 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12FG
21 plays · 77 yds · 2:2620% → 30%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
79.8%
Jeremy Cox run for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 16Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
80.1%
Jeremy Cox run for no gain to the ODU 16Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+19
80.0%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 19 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
78.3%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 12 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
77.0%
Shuler Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
77.5%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Marques LittleSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+15
78.2%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 15 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.1%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Marques LittleSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
76.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
75.2%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
76.4%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+9
77.1%
Shuler Bentley run for 9 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
74.4%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 11 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
74.4%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+10
74.4%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 10 yds to the SoMis 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.2%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Marques LittleSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.4%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+25
70.4%
Chris Kirtley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0775% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
75.3%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+11
76.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 11 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
77.3%
Jalen Richard run for 11 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
77.7%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Rashaad Coward) to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
84.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 24 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:0718% → 37%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
81.7%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 8 yds to the ODU 25Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+29
81.1%
Jeremy Cox run for 29 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
79.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+7
79.2%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 7 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
79.2%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 4 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
78.4%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Marques Little for 4 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Kalan Reed) to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
78.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 3 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
62.8%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0069% → 71%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
69.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 35 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
72.7%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
72.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Fellonte MisherSimilar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
72.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ Thompson, broken up by Brandon AddisonSimilar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
70.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor Marini, broken up by Brandon AddisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
50.7%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 64 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:3951% → 72%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
51.0%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+18
51.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 18 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
53.8%
Ito Smith run for 30 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
55.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
71.7%
Ito Smith run for 19 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
64.2%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 7 yds Zach Pascal fumbled, forced by Devonta Foster, recovered by SoMis Anthony SwainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:0071% → 81%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
71.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the ODU 29Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
71.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Taylor Marini for 6 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+3
69.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the ODU 20Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+1
68.2%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
71.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
71.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the ODU 11Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
69.7%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the ODU 10Similar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+10
81.2%
Jalen Richard run for 10 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
77.1%
Shuler Bentley pass intercepted Trae Collins return for no gain to the ODU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.2%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.6%
Jeremy Cox run for 2 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
89.2%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
90.1%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
90.6%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 48 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:0391% → 98%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
90.7%
Jalen Richard run for 20 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+40
91.5%
Ito Smith run for 40 yds to the ODU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
91.7%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the ODU 9Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
97.6%
Nick Mullens run for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.4%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jeremy Cox for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 24Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
96.5%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
97.7%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+17
97.7%
Jalen Richard run for 17 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
97.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the ODU 37Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
97.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor Marini, broken up by Justice DavilaSimilar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
97.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Tim WardSimilar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
97.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 17 yds, downed at the ODU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.9%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.9%
Jeremy Cox run for 3 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-2
97.0%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jeremy Cox for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 21Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
97.0%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:3298% → 100%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
97.9%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+54
99.7%
Jalen Richard run for 54 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 28DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.2%
Jeremy Cox run for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 22Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
99.1%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 5 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
99.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 14 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.1%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 5 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+11
99.1%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Marques Little for 11 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.1%
Jeremy Cox run for 9 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-1
99.0%
Jeremy Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
99.0%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Marques LittleSimilar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
99.1%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.7%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
99.8%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 5 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.8%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 7 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 1 yd to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
99.8%
Tyler Matthews run for 2 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.8%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 2 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+13
99.8%
Tyler Matthews run for 13 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.8%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 5 yds to the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:30
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 64 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)
-19.8
TD · Q3 1:34
Jalen Richard run for 10 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+19.2
TD · Q3 5:51
Ito Smith run for 19 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com