Try the model
ODU

Old Dominion 36 at UTSA 31

UTSA
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:45 · Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the ODU 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 183Pregame prior+3.2Home team on offense−10.7Score differential−3.4Garbage-time factor−5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:28: Ray Lawry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK) — ODU win probability +20.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:18: Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +24.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:28: Ray Lawry run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK) — ODU win probability +20.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:18: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +25.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 5:45: David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 40 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ODU win probability +35.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ODU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:20ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:28ODU 4th & 1 at UTSA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:26ODU 4th & 3 at UTSA 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:54ODU 4th & 9 at UTSA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:09ODU 4th & 5 at UTSA 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:09UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:52ODU 4th & 7 at UTSA 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45UTSA 4th & 7 at ODU 47, down 2
    Close callPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:33UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−4.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:28UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−3.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:21ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 24, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−2.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:18ODU 4th & 7 at UTSA 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−1.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−3.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:21UTSA 4th & 1 at ODU 22, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%−2.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−20.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:45UTSA 4th & 3 at ODU 6, down 5
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%−1.5
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−17.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:01ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 5, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−6.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:50UTSA 4th & 1 at ODU 13, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−9.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−20.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:25UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:21UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:05ODU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:28ODU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:18UTSA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:28ODU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:18UTSA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:45ODU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    69.9%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
80.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 4 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
80.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce Taylor, broken up by Oshane XiminesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+1
80.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
80.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.1%
David Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
80.1%
David Washington pass complete to Marques Little for 1 yd to the ODU 21Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
80.1%
David Washington pass incomplete, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q1 14:20
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
80.1%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 27 yds , Derrick Dick returns for no gain to the ODU 47 Derrick Dick fumbled, recovered by ODU Sean CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:4320% → 21%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
79.6%
David Washington pass complete to Marques Little for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
79.5%
David Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+11
79.6%
Ray Lawry run for 11 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+19
79.5%
David Washington pass complete to Marques Little for 19 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
79.4%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
79.4%
David Washington run for 4 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
79.4%
David Washington pass incomplete, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
78.7%
Chris Kirtley 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:0179% → 81%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
78.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 21Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
78.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+13
78.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 13 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
79.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
79.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
79.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+7
79.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
79.4%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the ODU 36Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
79.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+22
79.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 22 yds to the ODU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
79.5%
Aaron Grubb run for 8 yds to the ODU 1Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:3120% → 22%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.0%
David Washington run for 9 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
79.6%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 2 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+42
79.8%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 42 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
79.0%
David Washington pass complete to Kesean Strong for 1 yd to the TexSA 21Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
79.0%
David Washington pass incomplete to Kesean StrongSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
79.4%
David Washington pass incomplete to Kesean StrongSimilar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
78.4%
Chris Kirtley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:3379% → 82%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
79.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
79.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+15
79.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 15 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
79.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
79.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+9
79.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 9 yds to the ODU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
79.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
79.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the ODU 6Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
82.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:1219% → 19%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.5%
Ray Lawry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
81.6%
David Washington run for 15 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
81.1%
Ray Lawry run for 4 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+37
80.9%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 37 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
80.1%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
80.1%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
81.7%
David Washington pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Trevor BakerSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
81.0%
Chris Kirtley 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.0%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
80.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 10 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
81.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-4
81.7%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Tj Ricks and Fellonte Misher for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
81.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron Grubb, broken up by Justice DavilaSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
80.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds, downed at the ODU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:0018% → 22%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
82.2%
David Washington run for 12 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
82.1%
David Washington pass complete to Eri'Reon Hayes for 23 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
81.1%
David Washington run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 6
50
0
80.6%
David Washington pass incomplete to Marques Little, broken up by Nate GainesSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 6
50
+14
80.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 14 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
80.6%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+11
79.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 11 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
79.8%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+1
79.8%
David Washington run for 1 yd to the TexSA 19Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
80.5%
David Washington pass incomplete to Eri'Reon HayesSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
78.4%
Chris Kirtley 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:4722% → 33%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
78.1%
David Washington pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
78.5%
David Washington pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Trevor BakerSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+10
78.8%
David Washington run for 10 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
76.8%
David Washington pass complete to Marques Little for 6 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+10
76.4%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 10 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
75.8%
Ray Lawry run for 16 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
75.8%
Ray Lawry run for 5 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
66.9%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 42 yds · 1:2070% → 69%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
69.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+8
69.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 8 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
70.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce Taylor, broken up by C.J. BradshawSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+14
69.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 14 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
70.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
72.1%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Poncho Barnwell for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+12
68.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aron Taylor for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
50
+3
71.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 3 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
71.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Tyrell ClaySimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
70.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
68.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Marques Little at the ODU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
67.4%
Ray Lawry run for 4 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
66.7%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the ODU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13INT
11 plays · 62 yds · 0:0035% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.6%
Zach Pascal run for 4 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
64.0%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 9 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
63.1%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 14 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
62.0%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 10 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
62.0%
David Washington pass complete to Marques Little for 1 yd to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-2
62.0%
David Washington sacked by Jonathan Tuiolosega and Marcos Curry for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+25
63.4%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 11 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, roughing passer (Marcus Davenport) to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
60.9%
Ray Lawry run for 1 yd to the TexSA 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
60.9%
David Washington pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Duke WheelerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+16
62.4%
David Washington pass intercepted Trevor Baker return for 16 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.8%
TEXASSAN Penalty, IP (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
63.6%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
63.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+2
62.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 2 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
61.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, downed at the ODU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:5741% → 61%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
59.0%
David Washington pass incomplete to Kesean StrongSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
59.5%
Ray Lawry run for 12 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
57.8%
David Washington run for 22 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
56.3%
David Washington run for no gain to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
56.8%
David Washington sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 28Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+25
58.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 25 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.7%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0043% → 40%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
42.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
42.5%
Derrick Dick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+6
43.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 6 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
44.3%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 6
50
-3
45.5%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Martez Simpson for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 47Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-8
42.9%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Rashaad Coward and Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 17
OWN 39
-4
39.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 36 yds , Marques Little returns for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
36.6%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
37.0%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 19Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+5
38.3%
Ray Lawry run for 5 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
38.4%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:2740% → 64%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+31
40.2%
Tyrell Clay pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 31 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.3%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:5049% → 74%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
51.0%
Washington deep pass incomplete to Strong, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Wheeler) 15 yards to the ODU48, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
48.7%
Ray Lawry run for 5 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+9
47.8%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for 9 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
47.9%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 2 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+26
47.9%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 26 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
45.9%
David Washington pass complete to Marques Little for 6 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
25.8%
Ray Lawry run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:1031% → 62%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
31.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
50
+12
34.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 12 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
34.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+9
36.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
61.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
46.5%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 20 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
43.4%
David Washington pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
43.6%
Ray Lawry run for 10 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
43.4%
David Washington pass incomplete to Marques Little, broken up by Dalton MillerSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-4
43.5%
Ray Lawry run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+7
46.9%
Ray Lawry run for 7 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
47.3%
David Washington pass incomplete to Marques LittleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:2054% → 68%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
53.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 24 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
59.2%
Aaron Grubb run for 6 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
59.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
61.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
60.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+9
57.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 9 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+39
68.2%
Daniel Portillo 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3638% → 79%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.1%
David Washington pass incomplete to Ray LawrySimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
62.6%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 14 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
58.6%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
50
+10
56.1%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 10 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
20.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 40 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:0031% → 33%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
31.3%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for 21 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
36.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 3 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+9
36.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
38.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 17 yds to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
38.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the ODU 12Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+6
38.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 6 yds to the ODU 6Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
35.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+2
32.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the ODU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5885% → 85%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
15.5%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the ODU 7Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+3
15.9%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 4
OWN 10
-5
14.9%
David Washington sacked by Kevin Strong Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 5Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+3
15.2%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 41 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 3 yds to the ODU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
21.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
23.5%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Aaron Young for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 40Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+18
18.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 18 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
23.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
24.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 2 yds to the ODU 13Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
20.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
19.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
6.5%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:45
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 40 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-35.3
TD · Q4 11:18
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
+25
TD · Q3 0:18
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
+24.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com