2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:44 · Darmontre Warr run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:55: Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK) — ODU win probability +4.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:16: Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 54 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK) — WKU win probability +3.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:54: Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 21 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK) — WKU win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: Marques Little 16 Yd pass from Shuler Bentley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ODU win probability +3.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:39: Shuler Bentley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK) — ODU win probability +3.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 9:35ODU 4th & 8 at WKU 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.7%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call9.7%87% to makePunt9.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:52WKU 4th & 13 at ODU 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snapGo for it87.3%−0.319% to convertField goalTheir call87.5%72% to makePunt86.6%−0.9average punt
- Q1 4:48ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.5%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q2 15:00ODU 4th & 16 at WKU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.2%−0.216% to convertField goal11.4%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q2 4:10ODU 4th & 11 at WKU 45, down 14Close callWent for it · 10.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.2%−0.127% to convertField goal10.0%−0.325% to makePunt10.3%average punt
- Q3 10:51ODU 4th & 4 at WKU 4, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.7%40% to convertField goal6.5%−0.293% to makePunt3.8%−2.9average punt
- Q3 8:24WKU 4th & 5 at ODU 13, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it90.9%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call91.1%85% to makePunt87.2%−3.9average punt
- Q3 4:35ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 40, down 24Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.8%average punt
- Q3 4:35ODU 4th & 13 at ODU 45, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.520% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q3 2:15WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 3, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.7%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q4 5:50ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 34, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%average punt
- Q4 4:44WKU 4th & 3 at ODU 25, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%52% to convertField goal99.6%−0.166% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 1:59WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:52WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:55ODU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.3%97% to makeGo for two13.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:16WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:15WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:51ODU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.1%97% to makeGo for two9.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:54WKU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54ODU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick4.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call4.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:57WKU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:39ODU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.7%−<0.197% to makeGo for two2.8%45% to convert
- Q4 5:56WKU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1FG13 plays · 63 yds · 5:256% → 7%
WKUDrive 2FG14 plays · 52 yds · 4:3793% → 91%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
7.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 7 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+3
7.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 3 yds to the ODU 48Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+15
7.4%
COLLINS, Jake punt 46 yards to the ODU2, LITTLE, Marques return to the ODU5 (DOWLING, Nolan;JOHNSON, S.), PENALTY ODU roughing the kicker 15 yards to the ODU33, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
7.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 7 yds to the ODU 26Similar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
7.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 3 yds to the ODU 16Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-6
7.2%
Brandon Doughty sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 4:48
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+7
8.8%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 7 yds to the ODU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD4 plays · 51 yds · 1:1891% → 92%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
9.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tim Gorski for 24 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 1:558% → 9%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.4%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 3 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+39
8.4%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 39 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-7
9.5%
Shuler Bentley sacked by Nick Holt for a loss of 7 yards to the WKent 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD6 plays · 88 yds · 2:1591% → 93%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
9.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 6 yds to the WKent 18Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 4
OWN 18
-1
9.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 17Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+10
9.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 10 yds to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
9.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tim Gorski for 20 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
8.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 9 yds to the ODU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7TD16 plays · 84 yds · 6:507% → 13%
Q2 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+6
7.3%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 6 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
7.4%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Prince Charles IworahSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+15
7.6%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 15 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
7.8%
Shuler Bentley run for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 26 Shuler Bentley fumbled, recovered by ODU Marques Little for a 1ST down , return for 14 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+20
7.9%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 20 yds to the WKent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.0%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3489% → 92%
ODUDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 29 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
8.1%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for no gain to the ODU 28Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+28
8.0%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 28 yds to the OLDDOMNION 44 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-7
8.8%
Shuler Bentley sacked by Nick Holt for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD7 plays · 55 yds · 1:0893% → 96%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
7.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 11 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
7.3%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared Dangerfield, broken up by Brandon AddisonSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+22
7.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 22 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
7.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 13 yds to the ODU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
7.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 6 yds to the ODU 3Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 10 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12TD9 plays · 53 yds · 4:006% → 10%
WKUDrive 13FG9 plays · 55 yds · 2:2592% → 94%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
7.5%
DOUGHTY, B. pass incomplete to GORSKI, Tim (RICKS, TJ), PENALTY ODU offside defense (COWARD, Rashaad) 5 yards to the WKU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 5
OWN 48
-4
7.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+38
7.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 38 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14FUMBLE5 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
7.3%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Kesean Strong for 6 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-12
7.7%
Shuler Bentley sacked by Nick Holt for a loss of 12 yards to the ODU 29 Shuler Bentley fumbled, recovered by WKent Nick Holt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD2 plays · 29 yds · 0:3695% → 98%
ODUDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 10 yds · 1:193% → 3%
Q3 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-3
2.6%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Marques Little for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18TD4 plays · 30 yds · 1:313% → 6%
Q3 1:25
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
2.7%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Tj McCollumSimilar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+8
2.6%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Marques Little for 8 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
6.4%
Marques Little 16 Yd pass from Shuler Bentley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD5 plays · 46 yds · 1:5797% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20TD5 plays · 22 yds · 2:080% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD9 plays · 86 yds · 4:3898% → 100%
ODUDrive 22DOWNS6 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:50
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+5
0.2%
ZIFFER, Satchel punt 36 yards to the WKU35, fair catch by TOWNER, Kylen, PENALTY WKU offside defense 5 yards to the ODU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 3
OWN 34
-2
0.2%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23END OF GAME7 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:44
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+8
0.1%
Nelson Fishback pass complete to Will Bush for 8 yds to the ODU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:55
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q4 10:39
Shuler Bentley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q3 5:54
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 21 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
-3.8