2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:11 · Blake Brewer 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 9:29: David Washington pass complete to Marques Little for 33 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK) — ODU win probability +16.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 13:36: Matt Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK) — CLT win probability +16.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:46: David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK) — ODU win probability +25.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- FG · Q4 5:11: Blake Brewer 20 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +18.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:18: David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 11 yds for a TD, (David Washington pass to Jonathan Duhart for Two-Point Conversion) CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined — ODU win probability +50.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CLT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snapGo for it74.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.7%average punt
- Q1 10:45CLT 4th & 12 at ODU 45, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snapGo for it26.1%−0.123% to convertField goal26.1%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q1 8:29ODU 4th & 12 at ODU 7, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snapGo for it71.9%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.2%average punt
- Q2 14:20CLT 4th & 13 at ODU 13, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snapGo for it34.7%−1.117% to convertField goalTheir call35.7%85% to makePunt31.9%−3.9average punt
- Q2 10:24ODU 4th & 10 at CLT 25, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snapGo for it60.7%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call61.2%66% to makePunt56.4%−4.8average punt
- Q2 8:47CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 46, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snapGo for it34.6%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.4%average punt
- Q2 6:30ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 22, down 5Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 61.2% before the snapGo for it61.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.8%−1.7average punt
- Q2 2:12CLT 4th & 7 at ODU 39, up 12Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 51.6% before the snapGo for it51.3%37% to convertField goal50.6%−0.736% to makePuntTheir call50.1%−1.2average punt
- Q2 0:51ODU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it45.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%average punt
- Q3 13:26ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 39, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snapGo for it41.9%−1.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.0%average punt
- Q3 11:52CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 32, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snapGo for it59.2%−2.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.3%average punt
- Q3 5:46CLT 4th & 7 at ODU 31, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snapGo for it52.7%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call52.8%54% to makePunt50.5%−2.4average punt
- Q3 3:09ODU 4th & 4 at CLT 28, down 5Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snapGo for it48.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call47.6%−1.360% to makePunt35.1%−13.7average punt
- Q4 13:36CLT 4th & 1 at ODU 1, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.2%59% to convertField goal43.1%−8.194% to makePunt22.5%−28.7average punt
- Q4 10:55ODU 4th & 3 at CLT 18, down 9Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snapGo for it29.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call28.6%−1.279% to makePunt18.0%−11.8average punt
- Q4 9:38CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 26, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it47.5%−4.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.3%average punt
- Q4 8:21ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 30, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt46.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:11CLT 4th & 3 at ODU 3, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 4.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snapGo for it62.4%44% to convertField goalTheir call57.6%−4.893% to makePunt31.5%−31.0average punt
- Q4 0:21CLT 4th & 13 at ODU 44, down 3Numbers favored field goal by 4.7 ptsWent for it · 17.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.5%−4.721% to convertField goal17.2%27% to makePunt9.6%−7.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CLT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:20CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.9%97% to makeGo for two26.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:51ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call73.8%97% to makeGo for two73.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:54CLT Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.4%97% to makeGo for two31.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:30CLT Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.4%97% to makeGo for two51.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:29ODU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.8%97% to makeGo for two49.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:36CLT Touchdown, up 8 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call74.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two74.0%45% to convert
- Q4 9:46ODU Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.4%97% to makeGo for two43.6%−0.845% to convert
- Q4 2:18ODU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick69.6%−0.597% to makeGo for twoTheir call70.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
CLTDrive 2TD9 plays · 64 yds · 2:4826% → 28%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
74.2%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Trent Bostick for 25 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3TD4 plays · 68 yds · 0:2373% → 74%
CLTDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 10:45
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+19
73.5%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Richard Murphy for 19 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-1
73.2%
Lee McNeill pass complete to T.L. Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
73.4%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to T.L. Ford, broken up by Aaron YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6TD8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4628% → 33%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
72.0%
MCNEILL, Lee sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ODU39 (BRADSHAW, C.J.), PENALTY ODU holding 10 yards to the ODU27, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+9
72.1%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Corey Nesmith Jr. for 9 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+8
71.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 8 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7FUMBLE8 plays · 62 yds · 0:0068% → 70%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
68.9%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for 3 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
69.1%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 41Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+24
68.6%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 24 yds to the Charl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
69.5%
Ray Lawry run for 5 yds to the Charl 13 Ray Lawry fumbled, forced by Caleb Clayton-Molby, recovered by Charl Zach DuncanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8FG13 plays · 74 yds · 3:0734% → 38%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
66.3%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Trent Bostick for 7 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
65.3%
Lee McNeill pass complete to T.L. Ford for 25 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-6
62.4%
Lee McNeill run for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 13 Lee McNeill fumbled, recovered by Charl Lee McNeillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9FG12 plays · 45 yds · 3:0162% → 62%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
62.4%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 24 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+25
63.1%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 25 yds to the Charl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
62.4%
WASHINGTON, D. pass complete to FULGHAM, Travis for 4 yards to the CHA0, clock 12:31, PENALTY ODU pass interference (FULGHAM, Travis) 15 yards to the CHA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
-4
62.0%
David Washington sacked by Devon Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10FUMBLE3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.9%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Aaron YoungSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+28
60.3%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Uriah LeMay for 19 yds Uriah LeMay fumbled, forced by Pat Toal, recovered by ODU Tj Ricks , return for 28 yds to the Charl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2063% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 1:2935% → 36%
Q2 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+13
64.9%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Austin Duke for 13 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
63.3%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Kyle Hoffman for 3 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
61.8%
Lee McNeill sacked by Tim Ward for a loss of 6 yards to the Charl 38Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+4
63.2%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Justin Bolus for 4 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+4
63.6%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Corey Nesmith Jr. for 4 yds to the Charl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
60.5%
David Washington pass complete to Vincent Lowe for 9 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
61.0%
David Washington run for no gain to the ODU 22 David Washington fumbled, forced by Nick Cook,Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
59.1%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 47 yds , Ardy Holmes returns for no gain to the Charl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14TD5 plays · 69 yds · 1:2542% → 53%
ODUDrive 15INT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-10
48.7%
WASHINGTON, D. rush for no gain to the ODU28 (KING, K.;DOZIER, Branden), PENALTY ODU holding (MEWBOURNE, C.) 10 yards to the ODU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 20
OWN 18
+1
47.9%
David Washington pass intercepted Terrance Winchester return for 1 yd to the ODU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 2:12
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+3
45.2%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Trent Bostick for 3 yds to the ODU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
44.5%
WASHINGTON, D. pass incomplete to FULGHAM, Travis, PENALTY CHA roughing passer (JOHNSON, Devon) 15 yards to the ODU29, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
45.0%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 18 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+3
44.9%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19INT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
43.3%
Lee McNeill pass intercepted C.J. Bradshaw return for no gain to the ODU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
43.7%
David Washington sacked by Jalen Holt for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 36 David Washington fumbled, recovered by ODU David Washington , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 11:52
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-1
38.4%
Lee McNeill sacked by Tj Ricks for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22TD5 plays · 68 yds · 0:4539% → 58%
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+23
39.1%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 23 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
41.0%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 12 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
57.6%
David Washington pass complete to Marques Little for 33 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23MISSED FG13 plays · 45 yds · 3:3650% → 53%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
50.4%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Kalif Phillips for 2 yds to the Charl 26Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
50.3%
Matt Johnson run for 10 yds to the Charl 36 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Offensive holding (Richard Murphy) to the Charl 26Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
47.7%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Trent Bostick for 5 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
47.7%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Justin Bolus, broken up by Marvin BranchSimilar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+8
46.8%
Blake Brewer 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Marvin Branch return for 8 yds to the ODU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24FG7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3752% → 59%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
52.4%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for 4 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+15
53.0%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 15 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
55.5%
Ray Lawry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 35 Ray Lawry fumbled, forced by Devin Pearson, recovered by ODUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25TD15 plays · 79 yds · 4:2847% → 71%
ODUDrive 26MISSED FG12 plays · 64 yds · 2:3630% → 31%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
30.0%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 17 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
28.9%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 10 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
32.4%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 14 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
34.5%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 16 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27FUMBLE1 play · -3 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
27.1%
Andrew Buie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 17 Andrew Buie fumbled, forced by Tj Ricks, recovered by ODU Shadow WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 28TD3 plays · 17 yds · 1:0235% → 60%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
34.6%
David Washington pass complete to Vincent Lowe for 3 yds to the Charl 14Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-1
34.6%
David Washington pass complete to Jeremy Cox for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 15Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
60.0%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 29PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0054% → 50%
ODUDrive 30DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q4 8:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
52.3%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Tank NormanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 31FG7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1262% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 32TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5331% → 90%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 2 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
31.3%
David Washington sacked by TEAM for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 25Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+33
28.7%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 33 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
36.9%
David Washington pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 3 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
90.2%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 11 yds for a TD, (David Washington pass to Jonathan Duhart for Two-Point Conversion) CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 33DOWNS15 plays · 29 yds · 1:5125% → 12%
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
75.9%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Austin Duke for 10 yds to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+3
70.6%
Lee McNeill pass complete to T.L. Ford for 3 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
70.6%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Justin Bolus for 4 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
76.3%
Lee McNeill sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 48Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+4
87.2%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Kalif Phillips for 4 yds to the ODU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 34END OF GAME2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:18
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 11 yds for a TD, (David Washington pass to Jonathan Duhart for Two-Point Conversion) CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined
+50.1
TD · Q4 9:46
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)
+25.4
FG · Q4 5:11
Blake Brewer 20 yd FG GOOD
-18.1