2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:40 · Shuler Bentley pass intercepted, touchback. Kendall Gant return for no gain
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 9:40: Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 5 — ODU win probability +1.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:14: Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:06: Tony Pittman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK) — MRSH win probability +3.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:59: Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Tj Ricks — MRSH win probability +1.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:10: Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK) — MRSH win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 9 of 11ODU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 14:54ODU 4th & 7 at MRSH 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.0%37% to convertField goal12.0%−<0.147% to makePunt12.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:40ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it13.4%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q1 8:11MRSH 4th & 9 at ODU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snapGo for it85.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.9%average punt
- Q1 5:02MRSH 4th & 21 at MRSH 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snapGo for it86.0%−0.78% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.7%average punt
- Q1 3:36ODU 4th & 8 at MRSH 43, down 7Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.6%34% to convertField goal13.4%−0.228% to makePuntTheir call13.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:35MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snapGo for it85.9%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.1%average punt
- Q2 11:57ODU 4th & 16 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snapGo for it14.1%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q2 2:43MRSH 4th & 1 at ODU 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt88.8%−1.0average punt
- Q2 2:43MRSH 4th & 10 at ODU 39, up 14Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snapGo for it89.3%30% to convertField goal89.2%−0.136% to makePuntTheir call89.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:04ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q2 0:59MRSH 4th & 10 at ODU 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q3 14:10MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 23, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.2%−1.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q3 12:11ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%average punt
- Q3 8:10ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 38, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q4 13:35MRSH 4th & 10 at ODU 20, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%75% to makePunt97.7%−1.0average punt
- Q4 13:35ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 11:10MRSH 4th & 7 at ODU 22, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%72% to makePunt98.2%−0.7average punt
- Q4 6:52ODU 4th & 1 at MRSH 18, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.271% to convertField goal0.3%79% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:17MRSH 4th & 14 at MRSH 15, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 1:52MRSH 4th & 2 at ODU 40, up 20Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%57% to convertField goal99.2%−0.234% to makePuntTheir call99.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:40ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 49, down 20Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ODU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 5:14MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:06MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:10MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:53ODU Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 2DOWNS4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
88.6%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Ray Lawry for 1 yd to the Marsh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3FUMBLE9 plays · 59 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 12:55
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+12
88.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 12 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
88.2%
Chase Litton run for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 49 Chase Litton fumbled, recovered by Marsh Chase LittonSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+24
88.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 24 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
88.2%
Tony Pittman run for 4 yds to the ODU 7 Tony Pittman fumbled, forced by Fellonte Misher, recovered by ODU Pat ToalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
87.1%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 5Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 12
OWN 5
0
87.1%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Ray Lawry, broken up by Tiquan LangSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
87.3%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 38 yds , Deandre Reaves returns for no gain to the ODU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 8:11
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+2
86.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 2 yds to the ODU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6FUMBLE3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-9
85.9%
Shuler Bentley sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 10 Shuler Bentley fumbled, recovered by Marsh Gary Thompson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD1 play · 10 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
87.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
87.3%
Shuler Bentley pass intercepted Corey Tindal return for no gain to the Marsh 16 MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (D.J. Hunter) to the Marsh 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q1 5:02
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-11
87.4%
Chase Litton sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 11 yards to the Marsh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 15 yds · 4:2614% → 13%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-7
85.9%
Shuler Bentley sacked by Ryan Bee for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13TD13 plays · 85 yds · 5:4186% → 91%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
86.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 4 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+15
86.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 15 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+21
86.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 21 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+12
87.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 12 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
87.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 4 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+23
87.4%
Tony Pittman run for 23 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Justice Davila) to the ODU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManus, broken up by Brandon AddisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14FUMBLE6 plays · 45 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+39
89.9%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 39 yds to the MARSHALL 36 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
89.2%
Shuler Bentley sacked by Ryan Bee for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 38Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+6
89.7%
Ray Lawry run for 6 yds to the Marsh 30 Ray Lawry fumbled, forced by Shawn Petty, recovered by Marsh Ryan BeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT13 plays · 31 yds · 1:5490% → 91%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
90.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 13 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
90.7%
DAVIS, Keion rush for 10 yards to the ODU47 (DAVILA, Justice;CARTER, Sean), PENALTY MARSHALL holding (SELBY, Michael) 10 yards to the MARSHALL33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+5
90.3%
LITTON, Chase sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MARSHALL32 (Wiggins, Scott), fumble by LITTON, Chase recovered by ODU TOAL, Pat at MARSHALL31, PENALTY ODU offside (TOAL, Pat) 5 yards to the MARSHALL38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+13
90.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 13 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+9
90.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 9 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 0:4010% → 10%
MRSHDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
92.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Tj RicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18END OF HALF1 play · 8 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.5%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Ray Lawry for 6 yds to the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
90.9%
PITTMAN, Tony rush for 5 yards to the MARSHALL33 (FOX, Miles), PENALTY MARSHALL holding (SELBY, Michael) 10 yards to the MARSHALL18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+7
90.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 13
OWN 25
-12
90.4%
MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-12 Yards) to the Marsh 13Similar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
90.0%
Tyler Williams punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 9 , Marques Little returns for no gain to the ODU 9 Marques Little fumbled, forced by Cody Carter, recovered by ODUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 12:11
2ND & 2
OWN 17
-7
90.7%
Shuler Bentley sacked by Devontre'a Tyler for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22TD5 plays · 42 yds · 2:0492% → 97%
Q3 10:14
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+31
91.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 31 yds to the ODU 13 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
92.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 2 yds to the ODU 11Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
92.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 4 yds to the ODU 7Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
97.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:10
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
97.0%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Tiquan LangSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24FG16 plays · 46 yds · 7:0398% → 99%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
97.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 7 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 5 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
97.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 5 yds to the ODU 25Similar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
97.7%
DAVIS, Keion rush for 6 yards to the ODU14 (THORNTON, A.), PENALTY MARSHALL holding (SELBY, Michael) 10 yards to the ODU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+5
98.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 5 yds to the ODU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
MRSHDrive 26FG5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4199% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27DOWNS14 plays · 56 yds · 4:180% → 0%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, false start (Connor Mewbourne) to the ODU 20Similar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 5 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+2
99.8%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Nick England for 2 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
99.8%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 4 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 5:17
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-9
99.9%
Chase Litton sacked by Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 9 yards to the Marsh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 29TD6 plays · 60 yds · 1:420% → 1%
MRSHDrive 30PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 31INT15 plays · 59 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+15
99.8%
BENTLEY, Shuler pass incomplete to PASCAL, Zach (ALLEN, Rodney), PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (ALLEN, Rodney) 15 yards to the ODU28, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Kesean Strong, broken up by Shawn PettySimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.8%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Vincent Lowe for 8 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Shuler Bentley pass intercepted, touchback. Kendall Gant return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:10
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 6:06
Tony Pittman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q1 5:14
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)
+1.9