2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreAPP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:28 · TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:50: Terrence Upshaw run for 6 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +2.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:50: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 53 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +4.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q2 8:55: Shuler Bentley run for a loss of 6 yards Shuler Bentley fumbled, recovered by AppSt Devan Stringer , return for 77 yds, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +6.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:43: Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 00:43 — APP win probability +5.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:33: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 24 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +3.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q1 8:07ODU 4th & 21 at ODU 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snapGo for it35.0%−0.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.7%average punt
- Q1 3:40ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 27, down 7Close callPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:44ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snapGo for it28.4%−1.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.5%average punt
- Q2 11:55APP 4th & 6 at APP 23, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snapGo for it72.6%−0.838% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.4%average punt
- Q2 6:08ODU 4th & 6 at APP 12, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snapGo for it18.2%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call18.3%86% to makePunt15.4%−3.0average punt
- Q3 14:45APP 4th & 6 at APP 11, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.8%average punt
- Q3 7:09APP 4th & 1 at ODU 1, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.5%59% to convertField goal97.3%−0.294% to makePunt96.8%−0.7average punt
- Q3 7:02ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 35, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00ODU 4th & 1 at APP 12, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%71% to convertField goal0.2%−0.186% to makePunt-0.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 14:13APP 4th & 9 at ODU 42, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%32% to convertField goal99.2%−<0.130% to makePunt99.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:26ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 46, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 8:15APP 4th & 4 at APP 46, up 49Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 3:50APP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.0%97% to makeGo for two64.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:50APP Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.9%97% to makeGo for two69.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:16APP Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.4%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:33APP Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:09APP Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:18APP Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
APPDrive 2FUMBLE14 plays · 57 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
27.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the AppSt 35 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 16
OWN 25
+8
27.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 8 yds Jaquil Capel fumbled, forced by Marques Little,Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
27.0%
Marcus Cox run for 15 yds to the ODU 27 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Marcus Cox) to the ODU 37Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
27.0%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
27.0%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the ODU 12 Marcus Cox fumbled, forced by Fellonte Misher, recovered by ODU Tj RicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 8:07
2ND & 12
OWN 10
-3
29.8%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 7Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 15
OWN 7
-6
29.4%
Shuler Bentley sacked by Nathaniel Norwood for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 1Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 21
OWN 1
+14
29.3%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 38 yds , Latrell Gibbs returns for 14 yds to the ODU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD7 plays · 25 yds · 2:0770% → 73%
Q1 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-1
30.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Terrence Upshaw for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 26Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 11
OPP 26
-15
30.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the ODU 41Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 26
OPP 41
+15
31.0%
Critcher, B. punt 33 yards to the ODU8, fair catch by LITTLE, Marques, PENALTY ODU personal foul (WARD, Tim) 15 yards to the ODU26, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
APPDrive 6TD5 plays · 66 yds · 2:0372% → 77%
Q2 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+53
22.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 53 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
24.3%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 5 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+4
24.5%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Vincent Lowe for 4 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 6
OWN 38
-5
24.4%
ZIFFER, Satchel punt 50 yards to the APP12, downed, PENALTY ODU illegal formation 5 yards to the ODU33, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 11:55
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
22.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9FUMBLE TD4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1824% → 17%
Q2 10:13
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+26
23.6%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 26 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+77
16.8%
Shuler Bentley run for a loss of 6 yards Shuler Bentley fumbled, recovered by AppSt Devan Stringer , return for 77 yds, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10MISSED FG7 plays · 63 yds · 2:4715% → 16%
APPDrive 11TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5287% → 89%
Q2 6:08
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+11
13.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
12.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Isaiah Lewis, broken up by Fellonte MisherSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
12.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 7 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+41
10.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 41 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.8%
Shuler Bentley pass intercepted Latrell Gibbs return for no gain to the ODU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13TD6 plays · 44 yds · 2:3788% → 96%
Q2 0:33
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+24
3.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 24 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
ODUDrive 16INT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
2.8%
BENTLEY, Shuler rush for no gain to the ODU33, PENALTY ODU holding (FISHER, Tyler) 10 yards to the ODU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+5
2.8%
BENTLEY, Shuler sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ODU16 (Blair, Ronald), PENALTY APP offside defense (Blair, Ronald) 5 yards to the ODU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+3
2.8%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 3 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
2.8%
Shuler Bentley pass intercepted John Law return for no gain to the ODU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD9 plays · 47 yds · 4:1698% → 98%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
2.3%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Aaron Young and Miles Fox for a loss of 10 yards to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+27
2.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 27 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+8
2.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 8 yds to the ODU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
2.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 4 yds to the ODU 4Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Hunter Nunn for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:02
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+4
1.1%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Kesean Strong for 4 yds to the ODU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD4 plays · 60 yds · 1:2999% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20DOWNS12 plays · 42 yds · 4:101% → 0%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
0.5%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to David Washington for 1 yd to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
0.5%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to David Washington for 4 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
0.6%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Kesean Strong for 11 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+5
0.3%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 5 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 46 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
0.6%
Boyd, Josh rush for loss of 4 yards to the APP38 (TOAL, Pat), PENALTY ODU face mask 15 yards to the ODU43, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-12
0.6%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 39 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the AppSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.2%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 3 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
0.2%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jeremy Cox for no gain to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
0.2%
Satchel Ziffer punt for 40 yds , Latrell Gibbs returns for no gain to the AppSt 11 Latrell Gibbs fumbled, recovered by AppSt Bobo BeathardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:15
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+14
0.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 39 yds , Marques Little returns for 14 yds to the ODU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
APPDrive 25END OF GAME4 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q2 8:55
Shuler Bentley run for a loss of 6 yards Shuler Bentley fumbled, recovered by AppSt Devan Stringer , return for 77 yds, (Zach Matics KICK)
-6.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:43
Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 00:43
-5
TD · Q2 14:50
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 53 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)
-4.3