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CLT

Charlotte 23 at Georgia State 20

GAST
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2015 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLEFGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:27 · Arthur Hart punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kam Myers at the GeoSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Home team on offense−25.9Score differential−11.2Pregame prior+1.2Garbage-time factor−11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:13: Blake Brewer 35 Yd Field Goal — CLT win probability +3.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:40: Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 63 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK) — CLT win probability +15.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 12:07: Wil Lutz 50 Yd Field Goal — GAST win probability +3.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:39: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 24 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +12.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:30: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 53 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +16.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 11 of 11CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:31GAST 4th & 22 at GAST 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:58CLT 4th & 11 at GAST 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:35GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:13CLT 4th & 4 at GAST 18, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:13GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 4, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:07GAST 4th & 6 at CLT 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−4.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:04GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:07GAST 4th & 9 at CLT 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:50CLT 4th & 1 at GAST 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−4.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:32CLT 4th & 4 at GAST 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.5%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:29GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:01CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 38, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:55GAST 4th & 7 at CLT 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:41GAST 4th & 14 at CLT 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−6.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:08CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:27CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:59GAST 4th & 20 at GAST 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−1.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:37CLT 4th & 14 at CLT 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:30GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 0 of 2CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 2:40CLT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 9:39GAST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:30GAST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1761% → 61%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
61.2%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+9
61.2%
Todd Boyd run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
61.3%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+43
60.7%
Terrance Winchester 43 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Brewer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:2960% → 60%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
60.4%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-12
60.4%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert, PENALTY GEORGIAST pass interference 12 yards to the GEORGIAST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 21
OWN 12
-1
60.2%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 22
OWN 11
0
60.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for no gain to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 22
OWN 11
+4
59.7%
Wil Lutz punt for 53 yds , Corey Nesmith Jr. returns for 4 yds to the Charl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2141% → 42%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.5%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
59.6%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to T.L. FordSimilar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+19
59.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to T.L. Ford for 19 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
59.2%
Matt Johnson run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
58.9%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-6
58.8%
Matt Johnson sacked by Jerome Smith and Joseph Peterson for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+5
58.9%
Matt Johnson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+45
58.0%
Blake Brewer 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0758% → 57%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
58.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 9 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
58.5%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
58.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+2
57.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
57.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
56.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 54 yds , Corey Nesmith Jr. returns for no gain to the Charl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
57.1%
Matt Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 15 Matt Johnson fumbled, forced by Trey Payne, recovered by GeoSt Bobby BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5459% → 58%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
58.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Charl 20Similar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+6
58.4%
Taz Bateman run for 6 yds to the Charl 14Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
57.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted, touchback. Terrance Winchester return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:1443% → 50%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
56.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to T.L. Ford for 11 yds to the Charl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
56.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+10
56.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 10 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
55.4%
Phillips, Kalif rush for 2 yards to the CHARLOTTE46, PENALTY GEORGIAST offside 5 yards to the CHARLOTTE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+6
55.2%
Kalif Phillips run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
55.0%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
54.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to T.L. Ford for 8 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
54.5%
Andrew Buie run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
54.1%
Andrew Buie run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+2
54.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 2 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
53.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
53.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+6
53.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Corey Nesmith Jr. for 6 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
50.2%
Blake Brewer 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+29
51.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 29 yds Kyler Neal fumbled, forced by Devin Pearson, recovered by Charl Nick CookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9INT
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:3251% → 53%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
49.2%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
48.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
50
+6
49.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
48.4%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
48.3%
Andrew Buie run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
48.1%
Andrew Buie run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
47.7%
Andrew Buie run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
47.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to T.L. FordSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+12
47.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Corey Nesmith Jr. for 12 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
47.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
46.9%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+2
46.6%
Matt Johnson pass intercepted Bobby Baker return for 2 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4348% → 47%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
48.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
47.9%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
47.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Kyler NealSimilar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 8
OWN 4
0
47.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1554% → 56%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
45.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 8 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
45.2%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+18
45.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Richard Murphy for 18 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
44.7%
Kalif Phillips run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
44.3%
Andrew Buie run for no gain to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
44.3%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12FG
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:0845% → 46%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
45.3%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+11
44.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 11 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
44.4%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+11
43.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
44.0%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+22
42.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 22 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
43.4%
Taz Bateman run for 24 yds to the Charl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
45.2%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the Charl 11Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-1
45.1%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 12Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
43.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
46.0%
Wil Lutz 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 1:0556% → 72%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
44.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 12Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
44.2%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Corey Nesmith Jr.Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+9
44.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to T.L. Ford for 9 yds to the Charl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
43.1%
Matt Johnson run for 6 yds to the Charl 27 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
28.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 63 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:2632% → 32%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
32.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 14 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
33.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 4 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
33.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 3 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-7
32.9%
Nick Arbuckle run for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
32.4%
Wil Lutz punt for 60 yds, downed at the Charl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:4772% → 72%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
28.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the Charl 5Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+4
29.0%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the Charl 9Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+12
28.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 12 yds to the Charl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16INT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3973% → 74%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
26.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to T.L. Ford for 16 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
25.4%
Phillips, Kalif rush for 3 yards to the CHARLOTTE44, PENALTY CHARLOTTE holding 10 yards to the CHARLOTTE31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 20
OWN 31
0
26.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to T.L. FordSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+13
26.3%
Matt Johnson pass intercepted Bobby Baker return for 13 yds to the Charl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5831% → 31%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
30.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Charl 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Nick ArbuckleSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+1
28.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 1 yd to the Charl 39Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+6
27.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 6 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+50
30.9%
Wil Lutz 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 4:2672% → 81%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
28.4%
Kalif Phillips run for 22 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
25.9%
Andrew Buie run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
25.5%
Andrew Buie run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
24.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+3
26.6%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
24.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-7
22.9%
Matt Johnson sacked by Alonzo McGee for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+30
23.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 30 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
22.0%
Matt Johnson run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+5
21.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
21.2%
Andrew Buie run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
20.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Justin BolusSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
20.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Andrew Buie for 6 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
19.1%
Blake Brewer 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:5620% → 19%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
20.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Kyler NealSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+9
19.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 9 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+21
19.6%
Kyler Neal run for 21 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
20.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
19.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
19.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
19.1%
Wil Lutz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Corey Nesmith Jr. at the Charl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1983% → 85%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
16.8%
Andrew Buie run for 3 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+8
16.3%
Andrew Buie run for 8 yds to the Charl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
15.6%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the Charl 29Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
15.4%
Andrew Buie run for 2 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+7
15.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Corey Nesmith Jr. for 7 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
14.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Avery Sweeting at the GeoSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 52 yds · 0:5717% → 18%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+43
16.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Avery Sweeting for 43 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
18.9%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
18.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
18.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+6
17.8%
Nick Arbuckle run for 6 yds to the Charl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:1788% → 89%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
11.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 4 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
10.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 36Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+3
10.8%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the Charl 39 Matt Johnson fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Bobby BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23MISSED FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:4416% → 14%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
15.8%
Taz Bateman run for 16 yds to the Charl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
17.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 27Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 14
OPP 27
0
16.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
14.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
13.6%
Wil Lutz 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:3390% → 91%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
9.7%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Charl 22Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+2
9.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+5
8.9%
Matt Johnson run for 5 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-4
8.9%
Matt Johnson sacked by Nyiakki Height for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 25Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
8.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Avery Sweeting at the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:219% → 21%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
8.9%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+14
8.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 14 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
8.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+13
8.2%
Taz Bateman run for 13 yds to the Charl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
8.4%
Taz Bateman run for 3 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
8.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+24
20.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 24 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:0883% → 87%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.9%
Matt Johnson run for 1 yd to the Charl 26Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
16.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 5 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
16.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Trent Bostick for 7 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
14.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 39Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-2
14.0%
Andrew Buie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 37Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+2
14.4%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
13.5%
Arthur Hart punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kam Myers at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:1613% → 9%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
13.0%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Karrington King for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+15
12.3%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Height, Nyiakki, PENALTY CHARLOTTE pass interference (Norman, Tank) 15 yards to the GEORGIAST35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
13.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 7 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
13.9%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-15
13.2%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Height, Nyiakki, PENALTY GEORGIAST pass interference (Height, Nyiakki) 15 yards to the GEORGIAST28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-3
10.2%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by James Middleton for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
9.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 49 yds, downed at the Charl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 28PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 2:1889% → 95%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
11.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 5 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+22
9.6%
Andrew Buie run for 22 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
7.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 5
OPP 42
0
6.8%
Andrew Buie run for no gain to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-5
5.7%
Andrew Buie run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-4
5.9%
Matt Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 49Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
4.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kam Myers at the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 29TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 1:013% → 20%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
3.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Taz BatemanSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
3.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Kam MyersSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+26
2.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 26 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
3.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
3.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 6 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
3.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Kam MyersSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+53
19.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 53 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:30
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 53 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q2 2:40
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 63 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q4 9:39
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 24 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com