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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:08 · Alec Ingold run for no gain to the Hawa 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:27: Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — HAW win probability +0.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 7:27: Max Wittek run for 2 yds to the Hawa 3 — HAW win probability +0.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:38: Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +2.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 13:01: Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the Wisc 11 — HAW win probability +1.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:53: Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 12 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5HAW made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 14:56HAW 4th & 18 at HAW 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q1 4:23HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 30, down 7Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it6.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:02WIS 4th & 12 at HAW 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.6%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 14:51WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q2 13:55HAW 4th & 6 at WIS 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q2 11:43WIS 4th & 4 at HAW 43, up 7Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.7%48% to convertField goal92.4%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call92.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:27HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.8%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%average punt
- Q3 14:56WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.1%average punt
- Q3 10:29HAW 4th & 25 at WIS 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snapGo for it4.7%−1.07% to convertField goalTheir call5.7%54% to makePunt5.3%−0.4average punt
- Q3 7:50WIS 4th & 4 at HAW 32, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snapGo for it94.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call93.9%−0.451% to makePunt93.4%−0.9average punt
- Q3 7:50HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q4 15:00HAW 4th & 3 at WIS 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%53% to convertField goal1.0%−0.349% to makePunt0.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 7:25HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 4:27WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:53WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:29WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
96.0%
Max Wittek sacked by Vince Biegel and Michael Caputo for a loss of 10 yards to the Hawa 20Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+27
96.0%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 27 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-8
96.0%
Max Wittek sacked by Joe Schobert for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD18 plays · 97 yds · 8:0996% → 95%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
95.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 3 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
50
+10
95.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 10 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
95.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by Nick NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 5%
WISDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.3%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Wheelwright, R., PENALTY UH pass interference (JACKSON, M.) 15 yards to the WIS40, 1ST DOWN WIS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
94.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 14 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 1:346% → 6%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
93.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 14 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
93.8%
Max Wittek pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 10 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+39
93.7%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the WISCONSIN 11 HAWAII Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
93.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Tanner McEvoy, broken up by Daniel Lewis Jr.Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 0
0
93.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete HAWAII Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Wisc 19Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+1
93.4%
Drew Meyer punt for 46 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 1 yd to the Hawa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:007% → 7%
WISDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 52 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
93.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 18 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 7:27
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+20
92.4%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 20 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+17
92.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 17 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
92.2%
Max Wittek pass incomplete HAWAII Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+10
92.5%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 27 , Alex Erickson returns for 10 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10TD11 plays · 73 yds · 4:3892% → 95%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
92.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
92.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 11 yds to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
92.7%
Deal, Taiwan rush for 3 yards to the UH22 (NELSON, Nick), PENALTY WIS holding (Biegel, Hayden) 10 yards to the UH35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+12
92.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 12 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
92.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 9 yds to the Hawa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
92.7%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex, PENALTY UH pass interference (ROGERS, Jalen) 12 yards to the UH2, 1ST DOWN WIS, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
WISDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+4
94.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 4 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-8
94.3%
Joel Stave sacked by Kennedy Tulimasealii for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 14Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
94.0%
Drew Meyer punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Nick Nelson at the Hawa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13MISSED FG9 plays · 33 yds · 2:326% → 6%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+51
93.9%
Makoa Camanse-Stevens pass complete to Paul Harris for 51 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
93.1%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Metuisela 'Unga, broken up by Michael CaputoSimilar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 13
OPP 16
0
93.7%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 15 yds to the Wisc 1 HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Dejon Allen) to the Wisc 16Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
92.9%
Max Wittek sacked by Joe Schobert for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14MISSED FG7 plays · 37 yds · 2:3995% → 94%
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
94.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 9 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
WISDrive 16TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:3395% → 99%
Q3 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+27
95.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 27 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+8
95.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 8 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+12
99.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 12 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17DOWNS13 plays · 60 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
98.8%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for no gain to the Hawa 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+23
99.0%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 23 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
98.9%
Steven Lakalaka run for 1 yd to the Hawa 31 HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Asotui Eli) to the Hawa 21Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 19
OWN 21
0
98.9%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Metuisela 'Unga, broken up by Darius HillarySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 21
+16
99.0%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 16 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+8
98.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 8 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
98.9%
WITTEK, Max pass incomplete to PEDROZA, Q. (Hillary, Darius), PENALTY WIS pass interference (Hillary, Darius) 15 yards to the WIS40, 1ST DOWN UH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+1
98.8%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 1 yd to the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD8 plays · 67 yds · 4:0199% → 100%
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+19
99.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Eric Steffes for 19 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+25
99.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 25 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by Jesse HayesSimilar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 47 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for no gain to the Wisc 39 WISCONSIN Penalty, illegal block (Joe Ferguson) to the Wisc 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20END OF GAME11 plays · 81 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:53
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 12 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q2 0:38
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+2.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 13:01
Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the Wisc 11
-1