2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:33 · Cameron Johnston punt for 53 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 2 yds to the Hawa 20 HAWAII Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Hawa 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:03: Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK) — OSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:34: Jack Willoughby 20 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:13: Timeout OHIO ST, clock 11:13 — OSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:07: Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK) — OSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q4 7:48: Max Wittek run for a loss of 3 yards Max Wittek fumbled, recovered by OhSt Vonn Bell , return for 14 yds TOUCHDOWN (Jack Willoughby KICK) — OSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 13:38HAW 4th & 3 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:41OSU 4th & 13 at HAW 29, tiedClose callWent for it · 97.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.7%−0.120% to convertField goal97.8%58% to makePunt97.5%−0.3average punt
- Q1 8:50HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q2 12:57OSU 4th & 15 at OSU 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q2 12:02HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 9:03OSU 4th & 24 at HAW 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.37% to convertField goal95.6%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call95.7%average punt
- Q2 0:55OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.3%average punt
- Q2 0:21HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 0:05OSU 4th & 2 at HAW 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%57% to convertField goal96.4%−0.342% to makePunt96.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 13:08OSU 4th & 14 at OSU 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q3 11:33HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 45, down 14Close callPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it4.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 10:33OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.2%average punt
- Q3 8:34OSU 4th & 3 at HAW 3, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snapGo for it96.4%44% to convertField goalTheir call96.0%−0.493% to makePunt93.7%−2.7average punt
- Q3 3:36HAW 4th & 3 at OSU 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%52% to convertField goal2.2%−0.734% to makePunt2.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:12HAW 4th & 17 at OSU 42, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.515% to convertField goal2.7%−0.230% to makePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q4 11:07OSU 4th & 3 at HAW 22, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%52% to convertField goal97.7%−0.272% to makePunt96.2%−1.7average punt
- Q4 5:46HAW 4th & 16 at HAW 19, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:13HAW 4th & 5 at OSU 41, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%42% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.132% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 3:25OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:03OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:07OSU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
- Q4 3:51OSU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 36 yds · 1:111% → 1%
OSUDrive 2DOWNS9 plays · 39 yds · 3:5099% → 99%
Q1 11:48
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+19
98.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 19 yds to the Hawa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 15
OPP 31
0
98.7%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Jalin Marshall, broken up by Nick NelsonSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 15
OPP 31
-5
98.7%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 36 Cardale Jones fumbled, recovered by OhSt Cardale JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:472% → 2%
Q1 8:50
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+6
98.5%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 52 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 6 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD13 plays · 77 yds · 5:2599% → 98%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
98.3%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 12 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
98.1%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 18 yds to the Hawa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
98.0%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 4 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.9%
Elliott, Ezekiel rush for no gain to the HAWAII1, PENALTY HAWAII offside (Rasmussen, Kory) 0 yards to the HAWAII1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:092% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 2:3098% → 97%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
97.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 5 yds to the OhSt 15Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+5
97.7%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OhSt Cardale JonesSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
97.4%
Cameron Johnston punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Hawa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:513% → 3%
Q2 12:02
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
97.4%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:5398% → 97%
HAWDrive 9INT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:373% → 3%
Q2 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
96.9%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Davasyia Hagger, broken up by Vonn BellSimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+15
97.0%
Sanchez, Rigoberto punt 36 yards to the HAWAII41, out-of-bounds, PENALTY OHIOST roughing the kicker (Lee, Darron) 15 yards to the HAWAII20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HAWAII.Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.7%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Raekwon McMillanSimilar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Max Wittek pass intercepted Gareon Conley return for no gain to the Hawa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD10 plays · 35 yds · 3:1297% → 97%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
97.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 4 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+8
96.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Braxton Miller for 8 yds to the Hawa 9Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
96.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the Hawa 2 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, Personal Foul (Kennedy Tulimasealii) to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11INT8 plays · 29 yds · 2:023% → 3%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.2%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Darron LeeSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
97.2%
Wittek, Max pass sacked for loss of 9 yards to the HAWAII21 (Bosa, Joey), PENALTY OHIOST holding 10 yards to the HAWAII40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HAWAII.Similar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.1%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 2 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
96.8%
Max Wittek pass intercepted Vonn Bell return for no gain to the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:4997% → 97%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
97.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 10 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
97.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 11 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Gaetano DeMatteiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:273% → 3%
Q2 0:21
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+32
97.3%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 48 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 32 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · 8 yds · 0:1097% → 97%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
97.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 8 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4197% → 97%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
97.0%
Cardale Jones sacked by Makani Kema-Kaleiwahea and Kennedy Tulimasealii for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 21Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
96.8%
Cameron Johnston punt for 57 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 6 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:313% → 3%
Q3 11:33
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
96.7%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5297% → 97%
Q3 10:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
96.6%
Cameron Johnston punt for 53 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 2 yds to the Hawa 20 HAWAII Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18FUMBLE1 play · -4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-7
96.7%
Max Wittek sacked by Darron Lee for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 3 Max Wittek fumbled, forced by Darron Lee, recovered by OhSt Sam Hubbard at the Hawa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4997% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20PUNT16 plays · 43 yds · 6:063% → 3%
Q3 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+12
97.5%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 12 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+4
97.5%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 4 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.8%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Isaiah Bernard, broken up by Vonn BellSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-7
97.1%
Max Wittek sacked by Joshua Perry for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
97.4%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD19 plays · 91 yds · 7:5698% → 100%
Q3 0:12
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
97.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Braxton Miller for 8 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
98.4%
Jones, Cardale pass incomplete to Thomas, Michael, PENALTY HAWAII pass interference (Nelson, Nick) 15 yards to the HAWAII29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+6
98.4%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 6 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+4
99.1%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 4 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22FUMBLE TD4 plays · 8 yds · 1:031% → 0%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
99.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Davasyia Hagger for 13 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
99.3%
Max Wittek sacked by Jalyn Holmes for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 26Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+14
99.9%
Max Wittek run for a loss of 3 yards Max Wittek fumbled, recovered by OhSt Vonn Bell , return for 14 yds TOUCHDOWN (Jack Willoughby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:550% → 0%
OSUDrive 24TD5 plays · 45 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
99.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 11 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
99.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 12 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
99.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 13 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
100.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 4 yds to the Hawa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25DOWNS7 plays · 27 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q4 2:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+18
100.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Harold Moleni for 18 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 8:34
Jack Willoughby 20 yd FG GOOD
+1
TD · Q2 4:03
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK)
+0.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:13
Timeout OHIO ST, clock 11:13
+0.8