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GAST

Georgia State 28 at Oregon 61

ORE
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:15 · Wil Lutz punt for 36 yds, downed at the Oregn 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Pregame prior+39.7Home team on offense+17.0Score differential+12.4Garbage-time factor+3.7Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:03: Todd Boyd 14 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick) — GAST win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:43: Robert Davis 75 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick) — GAST win probability +1.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:38: Johnny Mundt 11 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:20: Keith Rucker 6 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick) — GAST win probability +2.0 pts (now 2%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:48: Joe Walker 52 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:55GAST 4th & 7 at ORE 33, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31ORE 4th & 1 at GAST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16ORE 4th & 6 at GAST 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:11ORE 4th & 7 at GAST 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:37GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:29GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 33, down 20
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:03ORE 4th & 10 at GAST 43, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:07GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 18, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:15GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00ORE 4th & 5 at GAST 22, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:11ORE 4th & 1 at GAST 18, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:44ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 40, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:47GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 28, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:22GAST 4th & 10 at ORE 11, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:49ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 17, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:53ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:11GAST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:17ORE Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:11ORE Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:03GAST Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:57ORE Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:43GAST Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:38ORE Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:20GAST Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:48ORE Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:32ORE Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:571% → 1%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.5%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+41
99.5%
Tyree Robinson 41 Yd Interception Return (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:491% → 1%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
99.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 17 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
99.4%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+21
99.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 21 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Glenn Smith, broken up by Reggie DanielsSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 3 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
99.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
99.4%
Wil Lutz 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:3499% → 99%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
99.4%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Bralon Addison for 11 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
99.4%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Evan Baylis for 7 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+10
99.4%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Jeff Lockie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.4%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
99.4%
Jeff Lockie run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
99.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
99.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+8
99.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Jeff Lockie run for no gain to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.3%
Jeff Lockie run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
99.2%
Aidan Schneider 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.2%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.2%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.1%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
99.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nyiakki Height for a loss of 6 yards Nyiakki Height fumbled, forced by Juwaan Williams, recovered by Oregn Juwaan Williams , return for 7 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5399% → 99%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.1%
Bralon Addison run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
99.2%
Aidan Schneider 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:511% → 1%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
99.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 44 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 6 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+4
99.1%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
99.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 20 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Nick Arbuckle 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:0699% → 99%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
98.8%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
98.8%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Bralon Addison for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+9
98.8%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 9 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+7
98.8%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Royce Freeman for 7 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
98.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
50
-4
98.8%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Royce Freeman for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:491% → 2%
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
98.6%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Torrodney Prevot and DeForest Buckner for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+9
98.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 9 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+8
98.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 8 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.4%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-8
98.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Christian French for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+6
98.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+9
98.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 45 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:1298% → 99%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
98.4%
Royce Freeman run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
98.9%
Royce Freeman 22 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
98.7%
Kyler Neal run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
98.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Tyree Robinson return for 1 yd to the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
98.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+9
98.8%
Jeff Lockie run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+35
99.3%
Dwayne Stanford 35 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.3%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
99.3%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 36 yds, downed at the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.3%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Devon Allen for 6 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
99.3%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
99.3%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Tyrell Crosby) to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+13
99.3%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
99.4%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.3%
Jeff Lockie run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+4
99.3%
Taj Griffin run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-5
99.3%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Jake Pisarcik) to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Ian Wheeler punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
99.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
99.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
99.2%
Wil Lutz punt for 46 yds, downed at the Oregn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:1099% → 99%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.3%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
99.3%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+44
99.3%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Charles Nelson for 44 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
99.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
99.3%
Jeff Lockie run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 11 Jeff Lockie fumbled, recovered by Oregn Jeff LockieSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-12
99.3%
Jeff Lockie sacked by Joseph Peterson for a loss of 12 yards to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 0
OPP 23
+40
99.4%
Aidan Schneider 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:241% → 1%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.2%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
99.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.2%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Wil Lutz punt for 36 yds, downed at the Oregn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17FG
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:0999% → 100%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 11 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
99.4%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 11 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
99.4%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Bralon Addison for 15 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.4%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
99.4%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Evan Baylis for 4 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+1
99.4%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 1 yd to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
99.5%
Aidan Schneider 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:451% → 2%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.5%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Rucker, Keith, PENALTY OREGON roughing passer (Hardrick, Rodney) 15 yards to the OREGON17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 3 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
98.2%
Todd Boyd 14 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
18 plays · 98 yds · 4:5299% → 100%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
98.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 4Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+10
98.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 10 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
99.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 8 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 2
OWN 22
0
99.0%
Jeff Lockie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+11
99.0%
Taj Griffin run for 11 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
99.0%
Jeff Lockie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 32 Jeff Lockie fumbled, recovered by OregnSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+15
99.0%
Taj Griffin run for 15 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
99.1%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Devon Allen for 15 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
99.1%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Devon Allen for 7 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+17
99.1%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Jalen Brown for 17 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
99.1%
Bralon Addison run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+7
99.1%
Taj Griffin run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
99.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q3 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
99.1%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
99.1%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 4 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Alonzo McGee) to the GeoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.1%
Bralon Addison run for no gain to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Taj Griffin 3 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
98.5%
Robert Davis 75 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:4899% → 100%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+9
99.0%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Byron Marshall for 9 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.0%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
99.0%
Taj Griffin run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
99.0%
Taj Griffin run for no gain to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
98.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.0%
Taj Griffin run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Johnny Mundt 11 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:090% → 2%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
99.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
99.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 12 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 7 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
99.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 6 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
99.8%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Hart, Penny, PENALTY GEORGIAST holding (Stoehr, Alex) 10 yards to the GEORGIAST48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+17
99.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 17 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+15
99.8%
Kirk, Demarcus rush for loss of 3 yards to the OREGON38, PENALTY OREGON face mask (Hardrick, Rodney) 15 yards to the OREGON20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+14
99.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Octavious Andrews for 14 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.9%
Keith Rucker 6 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
98.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Jalen Brown for 8 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
98.9%
Taj Griffin run for 4 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
98.9%
Taj Griffin run for 4 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
99.0%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Charles Nelson for 4 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-1
99.0%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
-5
98.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 50 yds, downed at the GeoSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:462% → 0%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
98.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+8
98.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 8 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+19
98.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 19 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
98.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 20 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
98.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for 2 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
98.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-52
99.9%
Joe Walker 52 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 63 yds, downed at the Oregn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
99.8%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 10Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+3
99.8%
Taj Griffin run for 3 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+87
99.9%
Taylor Alie 87 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27DOWNS
17 plays · 69 yds · 4:540% → 0%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Emiere Scaife pass incomplete to Octavious AndrewsSimilar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
100.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Jah-Mai Davidson) to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+12
100.0%
Scaife, Emiere pass incomplete to Andrews, Octavious, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Williams, Juwaan) 12 yards to the GEORGIAST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Marcus Caffey run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Marcus Caffey run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
99.9%
Emiere Scaife run for 24 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Marcus Caffey run for no gain to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Emiere Scaife run for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+11
99.9%
Emiere Scaife run for 11 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
99.9%
Marcus Caffey run for 8 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+4
99.9%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Emiere Scaife pass incomplete to Octavious AndrewsSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Emiere Scaife pass incomplete to Ari WertsSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Emiere Scaife pass incomplete to Ari WertsSimilar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 10
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Emiere Scaife pass incomplete to Marquan GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
99.9%
J.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+9
99.9%
J.J. Jones run for 9 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
100.0%
J.J. Jones run for 7 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-3
100.0%
J.J. Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-9
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
100.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 45 yds, downed at the GeoSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
100.0%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-2
100.0%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:20
Keith Rucker 6 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)
-2
TD · Q4 11:48
Joe Walker 52 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Schneider Kick)
+1.5
TD · Q3 14:03
Todd Boyd 14 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com