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UNC

North Carolina 45 at NC State 34

NCSU
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+2.7NCSU 15.4%Kyle Bambard 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 35 - HOME 17 · Q3 9:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:59 · Kyle Bambard 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense−19.1Score differential−12.0Pregame prior−6.9Garbage-time factor−5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:47: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 53 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +4.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:48: T.J. Logan run for 40 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +5.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:49: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:46: Jacoby Brissett 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — NCSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:29: Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +9.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:28NCSU 4th & 5 at UNC 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:50NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:13NCSU 4th & 5 at UNC 11, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:35NCSU 4th & 7 at UNC 40, down 21
    Close callPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:59NCSU 4th & 5 at UNC 7, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:58UNC 4th & 8 at NCSU 36, up 18
    Close callPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.3
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:55NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 28, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:35UNC 4th & 12 at NCSU 21, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:24NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 20, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:32NCSU 4th & 5 at UNC 40, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:41UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:06UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:41NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:47UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:48UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q1 0:51UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:49NCSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:46NCSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:29UNC Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:50NCSU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:0966% → 66%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
33.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 14 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
34.0%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+9
34.1%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
34.2%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+39
34.2%
Elijah Hood run for 39 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
34.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
34.3%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
33.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:5634% → 34%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
34.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 18 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
34.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
34.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
34.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
34.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 1:1566% → 68%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
34.2%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 2
OWN 17
0
34.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+30
34.3%
Marquise Williams run for 30 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
33.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 11 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
32.0%
T.J. Logan run for 42 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 3:1732% → 35%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
32.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+5
31.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
32.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+64
31.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 64 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
32.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 12Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+8
32.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 8 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
35.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:4366% → 70%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.3%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
34.1%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
34.3%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (Riley Nicholson) to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
30.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 53 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5031% → 31%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
31.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Cole CookSimilar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
31.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:5570% → 76%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
30.1%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
30.1%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+7
29.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 7 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
29.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+21
28.9%
Elijah Hood run for 21 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
28.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
23.6%
T.J. Logan run for 40 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
23.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass intercepted Andre Smith return for 28 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3677% → 79%
Q1 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
23.4%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCSt 2Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
23.2%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCSt 1Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.6%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10DOWNS
18 plays · 66 yds · 6:2419% → 12%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
19.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+9
18.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 9 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
18.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 10 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
18.7%
Dakwa Nichols run for 5 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
18.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
18.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
18.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
18.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+10
17.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 10 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
17.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 10 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
17.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+7
17.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
16.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
16.3%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
15.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 5
OPP 11
0
11.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11INT
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:1784% → 87%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
16.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 14 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
14.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 30 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 16
OWN 20
+4
14.4%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+13
14.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
14.4%
Elijah Hood run for 37 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
13.4%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+5
13.1%
Charles Brunson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
12.7%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Jerod Fernandez return for 12 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 5:4410% → 19%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
9.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Gavin Locklear for 11 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
9.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
8.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 7 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
8.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 5 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
9.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David J. GrinnageSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
9.1%
Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+15
15.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 15 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
22.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 7 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
10.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
10.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
11.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
10.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 1 yd to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
10.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
7.2%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Jumichael Ramos) to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+16
18.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:3987% → 90%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
13.2%
Elijah Hood run for 26 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
12.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 8 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
11.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+7
11.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 7 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
10.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
10.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+49
9.8%
Nick Weiler 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:1514% → 13%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
14.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
14.9%
Dakwa Nichols run for 1 yd to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-1
14.5%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Justin Thomason for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+14
13.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Gavin Locklear for 14 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
14.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
13.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
13.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
13.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 32 yds, downed at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
8.7%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 12 Elijah Hood fumbled, recovered by NCSt Juston BurrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2314% → 15%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
14.3%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+8
13.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 8 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
12.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
15.4%
Kyle Bambard 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:4788% → 89%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
11.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+16
11.9%
Elijah Hood run for 16 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
11.1%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
10.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 5 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
10.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
10.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 2 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
10.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
11.1%
Joey Mangili punt for 33 yds, downed at the NCSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 97 yds · 4:0713% → 22%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
12.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+4
12.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+5
12.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Benson Browne for 5 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
12.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 20 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
12.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
50
+10
13.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 10 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
13.5%
Johnathan Alston run for 33 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
13.9%
Dakwa Nichols run for no gain to the NCaro 7Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
13.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.3%
Jacoby Brissett 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:1082% → 96%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
18.3%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
16.5%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
15.6%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
15.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+15
15.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
14.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 7 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+7
13.4%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
12.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 8 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+14
12.5%
Elijah Hood run for 14 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
12.9%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCSt 1 Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.7%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:307% → 6%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
7.2%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Dajaun Drennon for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+12
5.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 12 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
5.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5196% → 97%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
3.7%
Marquise Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+2
3.6%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
3.6%
Marquise Williams sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 23 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCStSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
3.5%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22FG
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:086% → 7%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
6.2%
Johnathan Alston run for 16 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
6.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
6.0%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
5.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
5.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 12Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
4.9%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+34
6.8%
Kyle Bambard 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23FG
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:4596% → 98%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
3.9%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
3.8%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+6
3.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
3.5%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
3.3%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-5
3.1%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 7
OPP 16
-5
3.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
1.7%
Nick Weiler 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24TD
20 plays · 82 yds · 3:332% → 3%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
2.4%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Shakeel Rashad for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
2.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+4
2.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Dakwa Nichols for 4 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+9
2.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
2.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+12
2.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 12 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
2.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 1
50
+5
2.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
2.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 5 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
2.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+31
2.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 31 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
2.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Thuney) to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+4
2.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 4 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
1.7%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
3.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 20 yds for a TD, (Jacoby Brissett pass to Bra'Lon Cherry for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4897% → 97%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-1
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-2
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:49
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q4 14:29
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q3 3:46
Jacoby Brissett 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com