Try the model
SYR

Syracuse 29 at NC State 42

NCSU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreSYR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:21 · Kyle Bambard 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+29.9Home team on offense+5.2Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor+2.1Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:08: Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:50: Jordan Fredericks run for 75 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +8.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:21: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:20: Zack Mahoney pass intercepted for a TD Darian Roseboro return for 20 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:20: SYRACUSE Penalty, UN off-setting ( Yards) to the Syrac 3 — NCSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 5:06SYR 4th & 1 at NCSU 1, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:01SYR 4th & 19 at SYR 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NCSU 4th & 2 at SYR 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:21NCSU 4th & 15 at SYR 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:21SYR 4th & 19 at SYR 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:43NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.9%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:44NCSU 4th & 7 at SYR 36, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:21SYR 4th & 17 at SYR 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:14NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 12, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:25NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 45, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:51SYR 4th & 17 at NCSU 38, down 26
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:20NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 26, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 45, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:15SYR 4th & 12 at SYR 45, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:37SYR 4th & 3 at NCSU 3, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:04NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:07NCSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:08NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:31SYR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:50SYR Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:21NCSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:20NCSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:50SYR Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:37SYR Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5689% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
89.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 11 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
89.0%
Dakwa Nichols run for 19 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
89.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Cole Cook for 13 yds to the Syrac 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
89.0%
Dakwa Nichols run for 6 yds to the Syrac 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+6
89.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 6 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
89.0%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the Syrac 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
89.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 9 yds to the Syrac 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
89.0%
Dakwa Nichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
89.0%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive offside (Cordell Hudson) to the Syrac 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-6
89.0%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Ron Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 7Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:5212% → 14%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
88.1%
Zack Mahoney run for 4 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+14
88.1%
Ervin Philips run for 14 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-12
87.9%
Jordan Fredericks run for 3 yds to the Syrac 49 SYRACUSE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Syrac 34Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 22
OWN 34
+9
88.2%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Ben Lewis for 9 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+15
88.2%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Hakim Jones) to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+37
87.9%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Ben Lewis for 37 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
87.7%
Jordan Fredericks run for 1 yd to the NCSt 4Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.7%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Ervin Philips, broken up by Juston BurrisSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
87.9%
Ervin Philips run for 3 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
86.3%
Cole Murphy 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:5387% → 88%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
86.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 25 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
87.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 7 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+38
87.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 38 yds to the Syrac 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
87.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the Syrac 1Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Cole CookSimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
87.8%
Zack Mahoney run for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 34Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+1
88.0%
Zack Mahoney run for 1 yd to the Syrac 35Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-5
88.1%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (Brisly Estime) to the Syrac 30Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 17
OWN 30
-4
88.2%
Zack Mahoney run for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 28 Zack Mahoney fumbled, recovered by Syrac Zack MahoneySimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+31
88.3%
Riley Dixon punt for 52 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 31 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:4388% → 88%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
88.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 13 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
88.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
88.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
88.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 2 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+5
87.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 5 yds to the Syrac 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
88.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 28
0
88.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 28
0
87.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+46
87.7%
Kyle Bambard 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
87.4%
Zack Mahoney run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 27Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
87.6%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Brisly Estime, broken up by Kentavius StreetSimilar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 12
OWN 27
-7
87.9%
Zack Mahoney sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 20Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 19
OWN 20
-4
88.1%
Riley Dixon punt for 53 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 16 NC STATE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 7:3588% → 93%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
87.9%
Bra'Lon Cherry run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+3
87.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 3 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+12
87.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Gavin Locklear for 12 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.0%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
87.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+7
87.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 7 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+12
87.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 12 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
88.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 11 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
88.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+18
88.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 18 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
88.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the Syrac 17Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+3
88.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 3 yds to the Syrac 14Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+10
88.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 10 yds to the Syrac 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 1:378% → 12%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
91.9%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Syrac 35Similar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+16
91.4%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Ben Lewis for 16 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
91.3%
Jordan Fredericks run for 2 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
90.5%
Jordan Fredericks run for 2 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+15
90.5%
NC STATE Penalty, UN (Jerod Fernandez) to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
87.7%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Ervin Philips for 30 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9INT
10 plays · 63 yds · 0:3690% → 89%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
89.8%
Dakwa Nichols run for 13 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
90.0%
Dakwa Nichols run for 13 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
90.0%
Dakwa Nichols run for 7 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+19
89.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 19 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
89.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 11 yds to the Syrac 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
89.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
89.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass intercepted Antwan Cordy return for no gain to the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
89.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
81.4%
Jordan Fredericks run for 75 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:2383% → 91%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
83.1%
Dakwa Nichols run for no gain to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
82.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q3 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+34
82.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 34 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
84.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
84.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q3 14:44
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
84.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael Ramos, broken up by Juwan DowelsSimilar
Q3 14:44
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+11
83.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 11 yds to the Syrac 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
84.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 20 yds to the Syrac 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.7%
Ervin Philips run for 15 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
88.3%
Jordan Fredericks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 38Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
88.7%
Zack Mahoney run for no gain to the Syrac 38Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
88.8%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Brisly EstimeSimilar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 12
OWN 38
-5
89.1%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 33Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
89.2%
Riley Dixon punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
90.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 16Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-10
90.1%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Rony Charles for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSt 6Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 20
OWN 6
+6
89.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for 6 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+3
89.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 49 yds , Brisly Estime returns for 3 yds to the Syrac 15 SYRACUSE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Syrac 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
88.9%
George Morris II run for 6 yds to the Syrac 38 George Morris II fumbled, recovered by Syrac George Morris IISimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+15
88.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
88.0%
Ervin Philips run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 49 Ervin Philips fumbled, recovered by NCSt Josh JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
91.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
91.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David J. Grinnage, broken up by Zaire FranklinSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-2
90.6%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Ted Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
89.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17INT TD
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:5410% → 5%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
90.2%
Zack Mahoney pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-1
90.3%
Dontae Strickland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 20Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+20
95.4%
Zack Mahoney pass intercepted for a TD Darian Roseboro return for 20 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 3
OWN 0
0
99.2%
SYRACUSE Penalty, UN off-setting ( Yards) to the Syrac 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:291% → 0%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
99.4%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 17 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.4%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Ervin Philips for 6 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+17
99.4%
Zack Mahoney run for 17 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.3%
George Morris II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
99.3%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Steve Ishmael, broken up by Jack TochoSimilar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-5
99.6%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (Dontae Strickland) to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-3
99.6%
Zack Mahoney sacked by Justin Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 17
OPP 38
0
99.6%
Riley Dixon punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 6 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+2
99.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
99.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Brisly EstimeSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
99.7%
Ervin Philips run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 38Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+7
99.7%
Zack Mahoney run for 7 yds to the Syrac 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Riley Dixon punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
99.6%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+19
99.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 19 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael Ramos, broken up by Juwan DowelsSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 11 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
99.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 34 yds to the Syrac 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.7%
Dakwa Nichols 17 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.8%
Jordan Fredericks run for 5 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Zack Mahoney pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 0
0
99.7%
NC STATE Penalty, UN off-setting ( Yards) to the Syrac 33Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+14
99.8%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 14 yds to the Syrac 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.8%
George Morris II run for 1 yd to the Syrac 48Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-3
99.8%
Dontae Strickland run for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 45Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Dontae StricklandSimilar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 12
OWN 45
+6
99.8%
Riley Dixon punt for 47 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 6 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:23100% → 99%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
99.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 16 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-8 Yards) to the NCSt 8Similar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 16
OWN 8
+7
99.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+11
99.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 11 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
99.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-29
98.8%
J. McClendon run for -6 yds,J. McClendon fumbled, recovered by Syrac O. Vigille,return for 29 yds, (C. Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25TD
14 plays · 40 yds · 3:092% → 3%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
97.9%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 20
50
+15
97.8%
NC STATE Penalty, roughing passer (Kentavius Street) to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
97.4%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 9 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
97.2%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+11
97.4%
George Morris II run for 11 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.2%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Steve IshmaelSimilar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
97.2%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 11 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
97.2%
Zack Mahoney run for 3 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
97.2%
Zack Mahoney run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 2Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
97.4%
Ervin Philips run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 3Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.0%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for no gain to the Syrac 19Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-1
98.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 20Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+15
98.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 15 yds to the Syrac 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:50
Jordan Fredericks run for 75 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q3 12:21
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q3 5:20
Zack Mahoney pass intercepted for a TD Darian Roseboro return for 20 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com