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NCSU

NC State 17 at Florida State 34

FSU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:10 · A.J. Cole III punt for 38 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the FlaSt 18 Nate Andrews fumbled,
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+8.8Home team on offense+11.1Score differential+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:24: Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:17: Dalvin Cook run for 30 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q2 0:38: Roberto Aguayo 40 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:57: Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 27 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:35: Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 45 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:24NCSU 4th & 14 at FSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:29NCSU 4th & 25 at NCSU 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.4
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:11NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:10NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:38FSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:06NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:29FSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:10NCSU 4th & 18 at NCSU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−2.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:38FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:18NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:09NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 37, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:35NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:28FSU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.4%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:21NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:08FSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:25NCSU 4th & 1 at FSU 6, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:40FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:44NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:24NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:17FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:57FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:35FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -15 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
74.3%
Everett Golson sacked by Mike Rose for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 10 Everett Golson fumbled, recovered by NCSt Mike Rose , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1026% → 26%
Q1 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
74.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
74.0%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
73.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David J. GrinnageSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
73.9%
NC STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
73.9%
Kyle Bambard 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1174% → 73%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
73.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
73.5%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
73.3%
Cason Beatty punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:5927% → 27%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
73.3%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 14Similar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 15
OWN 14
-6
73.3%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 21
OWN 8
0
73.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 21
OWN 8
0
73.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for no gain to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 21
OWN 8
-4
73.2%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Josh Jones) to the NCSt 4Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 25
OWN 4
+18
73.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 38 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 18 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:2773% → 74%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
73.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 11 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
74.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:4026% → 31%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
73.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 6 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
73.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 11 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
73.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-3
72.9%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Demarcus Christmas and DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+14
73.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 14 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
72.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon Cherry, broken up by Jalen RamseySimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+16
72.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 16 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
72.1%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
72.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+3
72.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
71.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
71.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7INT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2770% → 69%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Kareem Are) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
70.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
69.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Chad Mavety) to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+5
69.8%
Everett Golson middle left pass incomplete to Ermon Lane, PENALTY ST offside defense (Kentavius Street) 5 yards to the FS20, NO PLAY, clock 02:35.Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
69.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 8 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
69.4%
Everett Golson pass intercepted Jack Tocho return for 8 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:2332% → 36%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
68.4%
Jaylen Samuels run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, face mask (8 yards) (Derwin James) to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
68.3%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 2
OPP 8
+1
68.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9INT
14 plays · 49 yds · 4:1964% → 61%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
63.6%
Everett Golson run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
64.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Jesus Wilson) to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 15
OWN 36
-1
63.1%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
62.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Jalen RamseySimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+25
62.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 25 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
64.0%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
63.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+12
62.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 12 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
63.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-1
63.0%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
60.9%
Everett Golson pass intercepted Niles Clark return for no gain to the NCSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:3939% → 43%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
60.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 14 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
60.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
59.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+10
59.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 10 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
58.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-5
58.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Alex Barr) to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+6
57.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 6 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
56.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+21
57.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 42 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 21 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:5056% → 67%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
55.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-2
56.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
54.9%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 11 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
55.9%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
55.5%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 17 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
66.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 30 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5237% → 38%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
61.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for 9 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
60.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-1
60.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
60.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+26
62.1%
A.J. Cole III punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FLORIDAST 13 NC STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jaylen Samuels) to the FlaSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 2:0762% → 68%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
61.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+10
63.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 10 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
63.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Wilson Bell) to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+5
61.4%
Sean Maguire sideline pass incomplete to Dalvin Cook, PENALTY ST pass interference (Dravious Wright) 5 yards to the FS44, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 01:47.Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
63.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 11 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
64.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
64.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+6
63.5%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
65.2%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
65.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
63.7%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis Rudolph FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
68.4%
Roberto Aguayo 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:3836% → 35%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.6%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
63.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Cole Cook, broken up by Reggie NorthrupSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
64.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 14 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David J. GrinnageSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
62.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
63.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David J. Grinnage, broken up by Nate AndrewsSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
64.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 45 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for no gain to the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:1567% → 72%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
66.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
67.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 10 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
67.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
69.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+8
67.9%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
69.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 5 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
69.1%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete, broken up by Darian RoseboroSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+10
68.5%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 10 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
69.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 26 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
69.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
69.8%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
68.5%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
71.6%
Roberto Aguayo 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:4031% → 32%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
69.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 12 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
68.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+7
67.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds Jaylen Samuels fumbled, forced by Javien Elliott, recovered by FlaSt Derwin JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:2374% → 84%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
73.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 17 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
84.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 27 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:3318% → 16%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
81.7%
Jacoby Brissett deep out pass incomplete to Nyheim Hines, PENALTY FS holding (Javien Elliott) 10 yards to the ST40, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY, clock 07:43.Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
81.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Gavin Locklear for 5 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
80.8%
Dakwa Nichols run for 2 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
81.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
80.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
80.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-8
81.4%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Derwin James and DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 18
OWN 44
0
83.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 38 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the FlaSt 18 Nate Andrews fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0484% → 83%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
83.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+10
83.4%
Sean Maguire middle pass incomplete to Ryan Izzo, PENALTY ST holding (Hakim Jones) 10 yards to the FS35, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 04:51.Similar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
84.4%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 8 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
85.5%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
83.9%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jacques PatrickSimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Cason Beatty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0417% → 15%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
82.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 12 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon Cherry, broken up by Marquez WhiteSimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
83.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete, broken up by DeMarcus WalkerSimilar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+2
84.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:5486% → 87%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
85.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
85.6%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
50
+16
86.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 16 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
86.9%
Sean Maguire pass intercepted Bradley Chubb return for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:3516% → 13%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
84.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+8
84.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 8 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-5
83.3%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
84.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim Hines, broken up by Nate AndrewsSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+9
85.6%
A.J. Cole III pass complete to Cole Cook for 9 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
83.1%
Nyheim Hines pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
83.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
86.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3586% → 99%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 16 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
87.8%
Jesus Wilson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
87.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 1
50
0
87.5%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 1
50
+2
86.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
88.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+45
98.6%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 45 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:144% → 3%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
96.6%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Giorgio Newberry and Derwin James for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
96.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26FUMBLE
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:3499% → 99%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
98.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
98.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+20
99.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 20 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.1%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
99.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
99.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
99.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+2
99.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 2
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the NCSt 13 Jacques Patrick fumbled, forced by Airius Moore, recovered by NCSt Germaine PrattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27END OF GAME
15 plays · 86 yds · 1:392% → 1%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
97.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 5 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+7
97.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 7 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
97.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 7 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
98.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 14 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
97.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 16 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
97.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 14 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
97.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 7 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 3
OPP 8
0
97.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David J. GrinnageSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
97.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+5
98.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 1 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, forced by Nate Andrews, recovered by NCSt Benson Browne for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:17
Dalvin Cook run for 30 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q3 7:57
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 27 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q4 9:35
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 45 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com