Try the model
NCSU

NC State 24 at Boston College 8

BC
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.2BC 0.8%Kyle Bambard 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 0 · Q4 4:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:14 · Kyle Bambard 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense−50.8Score differential−29.8Garbage-time factor−10.6Pregame prior−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:46: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 83 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:46: Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:25: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 35 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:25: Myles Willis run for no gain to the BC 34 — BC win probability +3.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:53: Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael Ramos, broken up by Taj-Amir Torres — NCSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 11NCSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00NCSU 4th & 2 at BC 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.0%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10BC 4th & 2 at BC 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:17NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BC 4th & 19 at BC 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:46BC 4th & 4 at BC 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:29NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:54BC 4th & 4 at BC 27, down 14
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:37NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:20BC 4th & 9 at BC 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00BC 4th & 21 at BC 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:53NCSU 4th & 2 at BC 49, up 21
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:53BC 4th & 14 at BC 5, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:03NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:07BC 4th & 9 at NCSU 22, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−5.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:22NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:49BC 4th & 2 at BC 30, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:26NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:25BC 4th & 13 at NCSU 37, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:14NCSU 4th & 16 at BC 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:21BC 4th & 1 at NCSU 3, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:56NCSU 4th & 10 at BC 41, up 16
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 0 of 1NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:46NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:46NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:25NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:21BC Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1INT
12 plays · 56 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
37.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+23
37.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 23 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
37.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
37.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 10 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
37.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-1
37.9%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+12
37.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 12 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
37.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
37.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+4
37.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
37.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass intercepted Justin Simmons return for no gain to the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
39.7%
Tyler Rouse run for 12 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
39.7%
Tyler Rouse run for 6 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
39.8%
John Fadule run for no gain to the BC 28Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+8
39.6%
John Fadule run for 8 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
39.8%
Tyler Rouse run for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
40.0%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 40Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+4
39.7%
John Fadule pass complete to David Dudeck for 4 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
39.7%
Alex Howell punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
40.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
40.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
40.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
40.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 11
OWN 26
-1
41.1%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
41.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:3442% → 43%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.8%
Marcus Outlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 24Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
41.7%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+18
41.2%
John Fadule pass complete to Elijah Robinson for 18 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
42.8%
John Fadule pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 12 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
43.1%
John Fadule pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 3 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
43.1%
Richard Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-15
44.7%
Fadule,J pass complete to Callinan,C for 8 yards to the ST31 (Wright, Dr.), PENALTY BC personal foul 15 yards to the BC46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+1
43.0%
John Fadule run for 1 yd to the BC 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 47
+1
42.5%
Alex Howell punt for 37 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 1 yd to the NCSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
36.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 83 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
37.3%
John Fadule pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 6 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
38.4%
Thadd Smith run for no gain to the BC 41Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
37.7%
John Fadule pass incomplete to Marcus OutlowSimilar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
36.8%
Alex Howell punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:2763% → 74%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
36.6%
Brissett, J. pass incomplete to Alston, J., PENALTY BC roughing passer 15 yards to the ST31, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
36.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 13 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
35.2%
Dakwa Nichols run for 12 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
35.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
35.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the BC 42Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+33
35.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 33 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
34.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the BC 5Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
26.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.2%
John Fadule pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
28.1%
John Fadule run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 9 John Fadule fumbled, recovered by NCSt Eurndraus Bryant , return for 14 yds to the BC 9 Eurndraus Bryant fumbled, recovered by BC Thadd SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
27.7%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+11
27.8%
John Fadule run for 11 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
27.9%
Myles Willis run for no gain to the BC 22Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
27.9%
John Fadule pass intercepted Juston Burris return for 6 yds to the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
25.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
25.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the BC 45Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-7
25.5%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Mehdi Abdesmad for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
26.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 31 yds , Sherman Alston returns for no gain to the BC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
26.0%
John Fadule run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 17Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+10
25.8%
John Fadule run for 10 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
26.0%
John Fadule pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
25.7%
Alex Howell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
25.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 9 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-5
24.2%
Dakwa Nichols run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
25.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
25.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 51 yds, downed at the BC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 1:3524% → 24%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
23.9%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+32
24.0%
John Fadule pass complete to Michael Walker for 32 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
25.9%
Myles Willis run for no gain to the BC 47Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
24.6%
John Fadule pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 6 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-5
24.7%
Elijah Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 48Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
23.7%
Alex Howell punt for 38 yds, downed at the NCSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
20.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the NCSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
23.0%
John Fadule sacked by Mike Rose for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 0
0
22.6%
Fadule,J pass incomplete, PENALTY BC holding off-setting, PENALTY ST holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 14
-4
22.9%
John Fadule pass complete to Elijah Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 10
0
22.5%
John Fadule pass incomplete to David DudeckSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 10
+2
22.5%
Alex Howell punt for 36 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 2 yds to the BC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:4581% → 91%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
19.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 9 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
19.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+35
9.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 35 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17INT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
13.8%
Myles Willis run for no gain to the BC 34Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-8
13.7%
John Fadule sacked by Josh Jones and Eurndraus Bryant for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 26Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 18
OWN 26
0
13.4%
John Fadule pass intercepted Hakim Jones return for no gain to the NCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
8.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael Ramos, broken up by Taj-Amir TorresSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
8.6%
Nichols, D. rush for 9 yards to the BC48 (Gutapfel,T), PENALTY ST holding 10 yards to the ST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+5
9.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 5 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+13
8.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 13 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
9.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 40 yds, downed at the BC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
9.7%
Richard Wilson run for no gain to the BC 9Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-6
9.7%
John Fadule sacked by Bradley Chubb and B.J. Hill for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 3Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 16
OWN 3
+2
9.7%
Richard Wilson run for 2 yds to the BC 5Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 14
OWN 5
-4
9.7%
Alex Howell punt for 40 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 1 NC STATE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NCSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
6.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+4
6.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 4 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
6.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
6.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:197% → 5%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+37
6.5%
John Fadule pass complete to David Dudeck for 37 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
7.4%
Tyler Rouse run for 22 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
8.2%
Sherman Alston run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 16
OPP 29
-4
7.8%
John Fadule sacked by B.J. Hill for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+11
5.5%
John Fadule pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 11 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+6
5.4%
John Fadule pass complete to David Dudeck for 6 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
3.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
3.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+3
3.4%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
3.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.4%
John Fadule pass intercepted Josh Jones return for no gain to the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:4897% → 97%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
2.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
2.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+11
2.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 11 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
2.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+2
2.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 2 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
2.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon Cherry NC STATE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
2.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 35 yds, downed at the BC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
2.8%
John Fadule pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
2.7%
John Fadule pass complete to Thadd Smith for 8 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
2.8%
Richard Wilson run for no gain to the BC 30Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
2.8%
Alex Howell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
2.0%
Dakwa Nichols run for 1 yd to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
2.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
2.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
2.2%
John Fadule pass complete to David Dudeck for 5 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
2.2%
John Fadule run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+14
2.2%
John Fadule pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 14 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
2.4%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.5%
John Fadule pass incomplete to Elijah RobinsonSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
2.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 15
50
0
2.3%
John Fadule pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 15
50
+16
2.3%
John Fadule pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 16 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
2.7%
John Fadule pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-3
2.7%
John Fadule run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
2.4%
John Fadule pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 13
OPP 37
-13
2.3%
John Fadule sacked by Airius Moore and Cole Cook for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
50
+36
1.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 36 yds Bra'Lon Cherry fumbled, forced by Gabriel McClary, recovered by NCSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-9
1.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the BC 13 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 23Similar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 19
OPP 23
0
1.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 19
OPP 23
+3
1.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 16
OPP 20
0
1.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+37
0.8%
Kyle Bambard 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:531% → 3%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.9%
John Fadule pass complete to David Dudeck for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
1.0%
John Fadule pass complete to David Dudeck for 5 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+7
1.0%
John Fadule pass complete to Thadd Smith for 7 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
1.0%
John Fadule pass complete to Elijah Robinson for 18 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
1.2%
John Fadule pass complete to Elijah Robinson for 19 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
1.2%
John Fadule pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 7 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+2
1.2%
John Fadule run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
1.3%
John Fadule pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
3.2%
Thadd Smith 3 Yd pass from John Fadule (John Fadule Pass to Tommy Sweeney for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:2598% → 98%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
1.7%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 45Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+6
1.8%
Dakwa Nichols run for 6 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+3
1.7%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 5
OPP 36
-5
1.8%
NC STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BC 41Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
1.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 38 yds, downed at the BC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
1.9%
John Fadule pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+20
1.9%
John Fadule pass complete to David Dudeck for 20 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:25
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 35 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q2 8:46
Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q2 13:46
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 83 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com