Try the model
CLEM

Clemson 56 at NC State 41

NCSU
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreCLEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:36 · A.J. Cole III punt for 53 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense−37.7Pregame prior−6.3Score differential−20.9Garbage-time factor−13.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:40: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 42 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +17.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:13: Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +17.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q3 4:39: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 40 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +12.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:45: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:58: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:37NCSU 4th & 2 at CLEM 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:29CLEM 4th & 12 at NCSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:05NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:50CLEM 4th & 11 at NCSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:44NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:27CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 28, up 6
    Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:54CLEM 4th & 21 at CLEM 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:55NCSU 4th & 12 at CLEM 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:17CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:04NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:40NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:20NCSU 4th & 8 at CLEM 37, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:52CLEM 4th & 5 at NCSU 5, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:13NCSU 4th & 9 at CLEM 9, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:00CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 10, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:10NCSU 4th & 16 at CLEM 44, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:37NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:16CLEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 11:04NCSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 10:27CLEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:46NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:40CLEM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:07CLEM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:13NCSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:39CLEM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:00CLEM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:45NCSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:12CLEM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 10:58NCSU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1524% → 26%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
24.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 13 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+41
24.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 41 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
25.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
25.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the Clem 20Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+7
25.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 7 yds to the Clem 13Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+13
26.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:0774% → 74%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
26.0%
Wayne Gallman run for 18 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
26.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 12 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
26.2%
Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
25.7%
Deshaun Watson run for 24 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:1173% → 74%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
27.1%
Wayne Gallman run for 4 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+57
26.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 57 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5427% → 29%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 11 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
27.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+13
27.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 13 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
27.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 1 yd to the Clem 48Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
28.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-9
28.6%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by B.J. Goodson for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 46 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, forced by B.J. Goodson, recovered by Clem Ben Boulware , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:4773% → 71%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
27.3%
Wayne Gallman run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
27.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 5 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
27.7%
Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
27.7%
Wayne Gallman run for 10 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
27.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+13
27.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 13 yds to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
28.0%
Deshaun Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 10Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
28.2%
Deshaun Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 12Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
28.7%
Deshaun Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
28.7%
Greg Huegel 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0728% → 28%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
28.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-6
28.4%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 13Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 14
OWN 13
0
28.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 14
OWN 13
0
27.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 48 yds , Hunter Renfrow returns for no gain to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 4:5872% → 73%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
28.3%
Wayne Gallman run for 8 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
28.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
50
+3
28.3%
Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
28.5%
Wayne Gallman run for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
28.1%
Zac Brooks run for 4 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
28.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 2 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
28.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 6 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+8
28.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 8 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
28.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-5
28.1%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (Tyrone Crowder) to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+3
28.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
29.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Jordan LeggettSimilar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+41
27.0%
Greg Huegel 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:5528% → 27%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
27.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
27.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+12
27.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 12 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
28.2%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Joe Thuney) to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-2
27.9%
Nyheim Hines sacked by Travis Blanks for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+2
27.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
26.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
26.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Hunter Renfrow at the Clem 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1672% → 73%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
27.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Clem 17Similar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+11
27.9%
Wayne Gallman run for 11 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
25.8%
Deshaun Watson run for no gain to the Clem 28Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
26.3%
Deshaun Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
27.3%
Andy Teasdall punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:3228% → 42%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
27.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 16 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
29.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
29.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+40
41.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 40 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:4762% → 58%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.4%
Deshaun Watson run for 6 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
37.6%
Wayne Gallman run for 2 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
38.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 6 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
37.7%
Wayne Gallman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 37Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
39.6%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Charone PeakeSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 12
OWN 37
-9
40.9%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Justin Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Clem 28Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 21
OWN 28
+14
42.3%
Andy Teasdall punt for 32 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 14 yds to the Clem 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5245% → 42%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
44.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 21 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
45.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 8 yds to the Clem 17Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-1
46.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 18Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-9
45.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for a loss of 9 yards to the Clem 27Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
42.0%
Kyle Bambard 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0859% → 76%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+31
41.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 31 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
23.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 42 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
27.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3273% → 71%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.5%
Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
27.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Hunter RenfrowSimilar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
28.1%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Charone PeakeSimilar
Q3 14:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
29.3%
Andy Teasdall punt for 39 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0230% → 28%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
30.4%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
31.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-5
30.1%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
28.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Hunter Renfrow at the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:4172% → 86%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+25
28.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 25 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
26.1%
Wayne Gallman run for 13 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
25.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+9
26.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 9 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+14
25.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 14 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
25.1%
Deshaun Watson run for 11 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
24.2%
Wayne Gallman run for 4 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
24.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 5 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
24.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
24.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Charone PeakeSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.4%
Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3919% → 36%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+66
19.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 66 yds to the Clem 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0573% → 88%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.3%
Zac Brooks run for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
26.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 10 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
25.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 5 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
25.3%
Zac Brooks run for 7 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
24.7%
Deshaun Watson run for 8 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+40
12.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 40 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5217% → 16%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
16.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
16.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Hunter Renfrow at the Clem 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:2888% → 97%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
12.5%
Deshaun Watson run for 5 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+11
12.3%
Deshaun Watson run for 11 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
11.5%
Wayne Gallman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+21
11.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 21 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
11.0%
Wayne Gallman run for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 2
OPP 33
-2
10.1%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Mike Rose for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 35 Deshaun Watson fumbled, forced by Mike Rose, recovered by Clem Zac Brooks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+35
2.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Zac Brooks for 35 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:084% → 3%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
4.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+9
3.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 9 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+4
4.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
3.4%
Dakwa Nichols run for 4 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
3.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
3.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Maurice TrowellSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
3.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:2697% → 97%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
2.9%
Wayne Gallman run for 9 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+10
2.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 10 yds to the Clem 39 Wayne Gallman fumbled, recovered by NCSt Kentavius StreetSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:563% → 19%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
3.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 2 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
3.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
3.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Dakwa NicholsSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+20
3.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 20 yds to the Clem 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
3.3%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the Clem 14Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
18.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:2892% → 98%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
7.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
2.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 36 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
18.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:3692% → 98%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
8.1%
Wayne Gallman run for 24 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
7.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-5
7.5%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+8
7.2%
Wayne Gallman run for 8 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+7
7.1%
Wayne Gallman run for 7 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
6.8%
Deshaun Watson run for 3 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
6.0%
Deshaun Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 6 Deshaun Watson fumbled, recovered by Clem Deshaun WatsonSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
4.5%
Deshaun Watson run for 1 yd to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
2.5%
Greg Huegel 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 29DOWNS
16 plays · 53 yds · 2:265% → 3%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
5.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
5.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 13 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
5.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 5 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+14
5.2%
CLEMSON Penalty, Roughing Passer (14 Yards) to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
5.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-8
4.4%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Ben Boulware for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 38Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+21
3.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 21 yds to the Clem 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
4.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
4.0%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jayron Kearse) to the Clem 12Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+8
4.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 8 yds to the Clem 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
4.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 9Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
4.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Dakwa NicholsSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
3.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
0
3.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David J. GrinnageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0598% → 99%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
1.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 1 yd to the Clem 10Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+2
1.7%
Wayne Gallman run for 2 yds to the Clem 12Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 7
OWN 12
-2
1.6%
Wayne Gallman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 10Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
1.2%
Andy Teasdall punt for 28 yds, downed at the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:431% → 1%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
1.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-14
1.0%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 14 yards to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 24
OWN 48
+8
0.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 8 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 16
OPP 44
+15
0.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 15 yds to the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 28Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:40
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 42 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
-17.6
TD · Q3 7:13
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q4 10:58
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com