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NCSU

NC State 13 at Virginia Tech 28

VT
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2015 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:40 · Kyle Bambard punt for 49 yds, downed at the VTech 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.4Pregame prior+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:56: Jumichael Ramos 8 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:41: Isaiah Ford 27 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +9.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:54: Isaiah Ford 5 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +9.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:18: Isaiah Ford 2 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +7.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:54: Travon McMillian 59 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +6.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:51VT 4th & 11 at VT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52NCSU 4th & 11 at VT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:49VT 4th & 5 at VT 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:23NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:11VT 4th & 2 at VT 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:11NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:40NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:37NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:21VT 4th & 2 at VT 29, up 11
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:56NCSU 4th & 7 at VT 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00VT 4th & 12 at VT 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−4.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:46NCSU 4th & 11 at VT 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:36VT 4th & 2 at VT 28, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:42NCSU 4th & 6 at VT 49, down 8
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:33NCSU 4th & 6 at VT 32, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:08VT 4th & 7 at NCSU 26, up 15
    Close callWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:56NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:41VT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:54VT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:18VT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:54VT Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0956% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
55.6%
Greg Stroman run for 3 yds to the VTech 28 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
55.7%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
55.7%
Brenden Motley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
55.7%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
55.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:5944% → 44%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
55.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 24 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
55.6%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+14
55.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 14 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
55.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+24
55.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 24 yds to the VTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
55.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
55.2%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
55.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
55.6%
Kyle Bambard 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0356% → 55%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.6%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.5%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
55.2%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
54.9%
A.J. Hughes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2645% → 44%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
55.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
54.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
55.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-5
55.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+50
55.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 50 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1255% → 55%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
55.2%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 7 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+7
55.3%
Sam Rogers run for 7 yds to the VTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
55.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by VTech Brenden MotleySimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
55.1%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+10
54.4%
Brenden Motley pass complete to J.C. Coleman for 10 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
54.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 55 yds, downed at the NCSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 6:1545% → 52%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
55.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+9
55.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+8
55.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
54.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 17 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
53.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 14 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
53.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
53.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
53.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+13
53.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 13 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
52.4%
Jaylen Samuels run for 12 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
52.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
52.3%
Brissett, Jacoby rush for no gain to the VATECH8, PENALTY VATECH offside off-setting, PENALTY NCSTATE Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
47.7%
Jumichael Ramos 8 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1548% → 58%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
47.8%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Travon McMillian for 19 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
48.3%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 14 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
48.4%
Brenden Motley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
48.2%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+11
48.0%
Motley, Brenden pass incomplete, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Pratt, Germaine) 11 yards to the NCSTATE27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
57.8%
Isaiah Ford 27 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3046% → 45%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
54.0%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Andrew Motuapuaka and Deon Clarke for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+4
54.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
54.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+24
55.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds, downed at the VATECH 45 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Batting (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:1757% → 64%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
57.1%
Brenden Motley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
56.9%
Travon McMillian run for 15 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
56.2%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
56.1%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
55.0%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
55.2%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 9 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+2
55.2%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
55.0%
Brenden Motley run for 4 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.4%
Isaiah Ford 5 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:1439% → 37%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
60.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 1 yd to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
62.0%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Woody Baron for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
63.5%
Kyle Bambard punt for 49 yds, downed at the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 3:2262% → 74%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
62.4%
Brenden Motley run for 9 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+19
64.8%
Brenden Motley run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
65.5%
Brenden Motley run for 4 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
65.6%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+17
64.7%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 17 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
66.2%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 9 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+5
66.2%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
66.3%
Brenden Motley sacked by Mike Rose for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
66.6%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
65.5%
Motley, Brenden pass incomplete to Hodges, Bucky, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Wright, Dravious) 9 yards to the NCSTATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.7%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.7%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.0%
Isaiah Ford 2 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
75.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:2326% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
75.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
76.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 13 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
74.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
75.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
75.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 6
OWN 42
-3
75.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 51 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 5:1675% → 78%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
75.2%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 4Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
75.3%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+11
74.6%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 11 yds to the VTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
76.4%
McMillian, Travon rush for no gain to the VATECH15, PENALTY VATECH illegal block 7 yards to the VATECH8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+7
76.3%
Brenden Motley run for 7 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
77.1%
Motley, Brenden pass incomplete to Ford, Isaiah, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Burris, Juston) 6 yards to the VATECH21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
77.5%
Brenden Motley run for 3 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-3
77.8%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Travon McMillian for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 21Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-5
77.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 16Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+13
77.3%
Brenden Motley run for 13 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+14
77.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 55 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 14 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:2522% → 21%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
77.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+16
77.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 16 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
75.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+11
76.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 11 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
75.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
76.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
78.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
77.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+3
77.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
79.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 2
OPP 14
-5
80.4%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the VTech 19Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
79.1%
Kyle Bambard 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5682% → 80%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
82.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 22Similar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
81.9%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+3
81.7%
Brenden Motley run for 3 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
80.9%
Dwayne Lawson pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
80.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 46 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for no gain to the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:1420% → 17%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
80.3%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+16
81.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 16 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
79.6%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+7
80.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
79.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
78.4%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
79.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
80.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
82.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1084% → 84%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.4%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
84.4%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
84.8%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
84.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5420% → 16%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
80.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
81.4%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-1
81.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
84.1%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:4886% → 96%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
86.2%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
86.8%
Greg Stroman run for no gain to the VTech 15Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+26
87.0%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 26 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.1%
Brenden Motley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
96.3%
Travon McMillian 59 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:216% → 4%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
94.0%
Dayes, Matthew rush for no gain to the NCSTATE35, PENALTY VATECH offside 5 yards to the NCSTATE40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 5
OWN 40
-7
94.5%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Ken Ekanem and Deon Clarke for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+16
95.2%
Brissett, Jacoby pass incomplete to Ramos, Jumichael, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Facyson, Brandon) 16 yards to the NCSTATE49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
94.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 15 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
94.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
94.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 4 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
95.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 6
OPP 32
0
95.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 38 yds · 2:2597% → 99%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
96.9%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 33Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+9
97.7%
Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
97.8%
Sam Rogers run for 29 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
98.1%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
98.5%
Greg Stroman run for no gain to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-5
98.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+6
98.4%
Greg Stroman run for 6 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 7
OPP 26
-4
99.0%
A.J. Hughes run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:481% → 1%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 6 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-1
99.0%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass intercepted Adonis Alexander return for no gain to the VTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the VTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:41
Isaiah Ford 27 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)
+9.8
TD · Q2 5:54
Isaiah Ford 5 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)
+9.4
TD · Q2 0:18
Isaiah Ford 2 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com