Try the model
LOU

Louisville 20 at NC State 13

NCSU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:13 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:36: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 20 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +9.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:24: Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:56: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 21 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT MISSED) — NCSU win probability +12.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:36: Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the NCSt 45 — LOU win probability +10.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 10:22: Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 15 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar Jackson — LOU win probability +8.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:47LOU 4th & 19 at LOU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NCSU 4th & 10 at LOU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:16LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:07NCSU 4th & 18 at LOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:01LOU 4th & 10 at NCSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:04NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 19, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:55NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:23LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:56LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:57NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−3.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:12LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:14LOU 4th & 9 at NCSU 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−14.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 19 at NCSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−4.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:22LOU 4th & 20 at LOU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−5.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:19NCSU 4th & 10 at LOU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:55LOU 4th & 8 at NCSU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:45NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:54LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:36LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:24NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:56NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
67.9%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
67.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
67.9%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-3
67.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by B.J. Hill for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
67.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+4
67.9%
Joshua Appleby punt for 42 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
67.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
67.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 6 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
67.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
67.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds, downed at the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
67.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-4
67.2%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 14
OWN 24
-5
67.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 19
OWN 19
0
67.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
67.6%
Joshua Appleby punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
67.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
67.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+48
67.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 48 yds Jumichael Ramos fumbled, forced by Chucky Williams, recovered by Lvile Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 3:3333% → 38%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
66.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+11
66.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
66.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 3 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+2
66.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+10
66.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 10 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
66.4%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Dravious Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+68
62.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 68 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4862% → 60%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
62.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
62.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Shaq Wiggins) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
50
+17
63.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 17 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-6
64.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 16
OPP 39
-1
63.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+7
62.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 7 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
59.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 27 yds, downed at the Lvile 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
16 plays · 93 yds · 6:1540% → 56%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
59.8%
Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+6
59.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
59.5%
Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-5
59.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 18Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+11
59.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
59.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Dravious Wright) to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
58.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
58.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+11
58.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
58.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
57.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Devonte Peete, broken up by Juston BurrisSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+13
58.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 13 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
57.9%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+3
58.0%
L.J. Scott run for 3 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
43.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 20 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5348% → 56%
Q2 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
47.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matthew Dayes, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
47.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
52.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
52.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-1
51.4%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
52.2%
Joshua Appleby punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
52.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 39 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
55.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matthew Dayes, broken up by Josh Harvey-ClemonsSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
55.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-4
54.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 13
OPP 44
-5
52.0%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Dravious Wright) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
51.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 2:5449% → 57%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
50.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
50.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+13
51.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
49.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 16 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
47.7%
NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Mike Rose) to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
47.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 8 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+1
46.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+15
43.0%
NC STATE Penalty, roughing passer (Bradley Chubb) to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
42.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
42.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
43.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
43.2%
John Wallace 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:5143% → 41%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
42.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
42.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-2
42.0%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 10
OWN 19
-4
40.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
42.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
43.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-8
41.7%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
41.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for no gain to the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
40.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Ja'Quay Savage, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
41.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
41.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Devonte Peete, broken up by Juston BurrisSimilar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
43.0%
Joshua Appleby punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2840% → 57%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
40.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 28 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
42.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
43.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+6
42.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 6 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
43.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
44.5%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+10
42.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 10 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
44.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
44.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matthew DayesSimilar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+21
56.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 21 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
49.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
49.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+2
50.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
52.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 47%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
50.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-4
49.8%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+3
48.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 11
OWN 17
-5
47.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 44 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 34 Jaire Alexander fumbled, forced by Josh Jones, recovered by Lvile Shaq WigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
43.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
44.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
46.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
47.1%
Joshua Appleby punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0047% → 49%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
46.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+9
49.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 9 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
49.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45 Matthew Dayes fumbled, recovered by Lvile Chucky WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:2261% → 67%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
38.8%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+24
38.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 24 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
37.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 11 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
37.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
37.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Devonte PeeteSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
39.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
32.7%
John Wallace 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 0:0836% → 33%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
35.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
34.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
36.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
36.6%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by DeAngelo Brown and Drew Bailey for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 32
0
34.8%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+24
33.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 9 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Chucky Williams) to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
40.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-1
37.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-6
35.8%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 47
0
33.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0075% → 72%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
25.2%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 15 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-6
25.7%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 21
OWN 9
+1
27.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 1 yd to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+13
27.8%
Joshua Appleby punt for 51 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 13 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 28%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.8%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
33.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David J. Grinnage, broken up by Keith KelseySimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
30.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
28.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 5:2878% → 94%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
22.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
22.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
17.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
16.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
15.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+2
15.4%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+12
15.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 12 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
14.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-3
7.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
8.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
5.8%
Joshua Appleby punt for 39 yds, downed at the NCSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
13.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+9
12.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 9 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 14
0
13.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
12.4%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-1
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:56
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 21 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT MISSED)
+12.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:36
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the NCSt 45
-10.6
TD · Q2 7:24
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com