Try the model
NCSU

NC State 63 at South Alabama 13

USA
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:21 · Brandon McKee punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior−29.2Home team on offense−27.7Score differential−13.4Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 13:07: Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 11 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +1.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:02: Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 3:41: Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 14:18: Aleem Sunanon 33 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +1.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 12:10: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 33 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:26USA 4th & 8 at USA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:10USA 4th & 10 at USA 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:47NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 27, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:46USA 4th & 20 at USA 21, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:07NCSU 4th & 12 at USA 49, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:21USA 4th & 10 at USA 48, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:06NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 28, up 32
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:31USA 4th & 5 at USA 30, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 49, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:43USA 4th & 10 at USA 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:40USA 4th & 21 at NCSU 32, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:51USA 4th & 21 at USA 27, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:07USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:26NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:27NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:02NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 3:41NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 12:10NCSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:21NCSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:47NCSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:51NCSU Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:32NCSU Touchdown, up 49 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5310% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
10.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Chris Lewis for 47 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
10.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
10.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 7 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
10.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
10.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
11.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 11 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 1:4189% → 89%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
11.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 10Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+13
11.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 13 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+77
11.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 77 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
11.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Tyreis Thomas for 10 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
11.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
11.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
11.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+4
11.4%
Brandon McKee punt for 37 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2788% → 88%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
12.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 8 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
12.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 8 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
11.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
12.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 14 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
11.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 1 yd to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+39
11.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 39 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5INT
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
12.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 45 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
12.6%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
12.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 32 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+4
12.2%
Cody Clements pass intercepted Germaine Pratt return for 4 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 1:0588% → 89%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+42
12.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 42 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+33
11.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 33 yds to the SAlab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.3%
Cody Clements run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
11.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Terrance Timmons for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+27
11.2%
Cody Clements pass intercepted Jerod Fernandez return for 27 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
8.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:239% → 10%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
8.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Chris Lewis for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+36
9.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 36 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
9.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+4
9.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 4 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
9.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Tyreis ThomasSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
9.4%
Cody Clements run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 21Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+15
9.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny Woodson (Burris, J.), PENALTY ST pass interference (Burris, J.) 15 yards to the ST6, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
9.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
9.4%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-9
8.9%
Cody Clements run for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 16 Cody Clements fumbled,Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
10.2%
Aleem Sunanon 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:0891% → 95%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
50
+8
8.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 8 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+12
8.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Cole Cook for 12 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
8.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+33
5.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 33 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to D.J. VinsonSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Brandon McKee punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
5.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 27 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 19
OWN 17
+4
5.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 4 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+6
5.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 6 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
5.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
5.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen Thompson at the SAlab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
4.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to D.J. VinsonSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
4.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
4.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 10
OWN 31
-10
4.3%
Brandon McKee punt 43 yards to the ST26, fair catch by Cherry, B., PENALTY USA illegal formation 10 yards to the USA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 20
OWN 21
+12
3.8%
Brandon McKee punt for 54 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 12 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
4.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 9 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+7
4.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for 7 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
4.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-5
4.2%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Tre Alford for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 48 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, recovered by NCSt Jacoby Brissett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+3
4.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
4.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 35 yds , Jalen Thompson returns for no gain to the SAlab 25 Jalen Thompson fumbled, recovered by NCSt Josh JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:2096% → 96%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
3.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
3.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 9 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+14
3.1%
Jaylen Samuels run for 14 yds to the SAlab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
4.9%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
4.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 8 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
4.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 8 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
5.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 10 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
5.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
5.1%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to D.J. VinsonSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
5.1%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
5.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
3.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
3.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 7 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
3.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
3.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 46 yds , Josh Magee returns for no gain to the SAlab 25 Josh Magee fumbled, recovered by SAlab Josh MageeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:414% → 3%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.7%
Dami Ayoola run for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
3.6%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
3.6%
Dami Ayoola run for no gain to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+51
3.4%
Brandon McKee punt for 54 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 51 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19MISSED FG
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:1198% → 98%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
1.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 9 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+41
1.8%
Kyle Bambard 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
2.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
2.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
2.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
2.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 7 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
2.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
2.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
2.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matthew DayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.9%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
2.8%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Xavier Johnson, PENALTY ST pass interference (Chubb, B.) 9 yards to the USA29, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
2.9%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
2.8%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin Shinn, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
2.7%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+1
2.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 50 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 3:3199% → 99%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
1.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 18 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
1.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 20 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
1.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 12 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
1.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 11 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
1.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+11
1.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Cole Cook for 11 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.9%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:071% → 1%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
0.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 32 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
0.9%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+12
0.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Nathan Sassaman for 12 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
0.9%
Dami Ayoola rush for no gain to the ST21 (Boone, S.), PENALTY USA face mask (Dami Ayoola) 15 yards to the ST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 25
OPP 36
0
0.9%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 25
OPP 36
0
0.8%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 25
OPP 36
+4
0.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 4 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 21
OPP 32
+49
0.8%
Aleem Sunanon 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:4999% → 100%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
0.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
0.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
0.6%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Cole Cook for 11 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
0.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+12
0.6%
Johnathan Alston run for 12 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
0.6%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 21 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
0.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
0.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 9 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
0.3%
Dallas Davis sacked by Darian Roseboro for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+3
0.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Danny Woodson for 3 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-8
0.3%
Dallas Davis sacked by Darian Roseboro for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 21
OWN 27
0
0.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26TD
14 plays · 61 yds · 9:15100% → 100%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
0.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 8 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
0.3%
Dakwa Nichols run for 4 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
0.3%
Dakwa Nichols run for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
0.3%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+6
0.3%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Maurice Morgan for 6 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
0.3%
Bra'Lon Cherry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+8
0.3%
Dakwa Nichols run for 8 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
0.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.3%
Dakwa Nichols run for no gain to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
0.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+7
0.3%
Jalan McClendon run for 7 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
0.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
0.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
0.1%
Dami Ayoola run for 1 yd to the SAlab 20Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+2
0.1%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-1
0.1%
Dami Ayoola run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:10
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 33 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q1 3:41
Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q1 5:02
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com