2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreEKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:52 · Jalan McClendon pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- MISSED FG · Q1 6:23: Kyle Bambard 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Stanley Absanon TEAM return for no gain — EKU win probability +1.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- KEY PLAY · Q1 2:39: Adam Lane run for no gain to the EKent 46 — EKU win probability +1.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:12: Jaylen Samuels run for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Zack Burgy-VanHoose kickoff for 56 yds , Nyheim Hines return for 21 yds to the NCSt 30 — EKU win probability +1.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:25: Matthew Dayes run for 25 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6EKU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 15:00EKU 4th & 18 at EKU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q1 6:23NCSU 4th & 15 at EKU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.115% to convertField goalTheir call95.0%83% to makePunt94.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:23EKU 4th & 10 at EKU 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q1 2:39EKU 4th & 6 at EKU 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it6.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q2 12:47EKU 4th & 13 at EKU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q2 1:20EKU 4th & 9 at NCSU 9, down 14Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.4%−0.225% to convertField goal5.6%89% to makePunt4.4%−1.2average punt
- Q3 13:25EKU 4th & 8 at EKU 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q3 12:06NCSU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 21Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 10:05EKU 4th & 4 at EKU 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it2.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 9:12NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 44, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.1%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%average punt
- Q3 8:29EKU 4th & 8 at EKU 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 7:34NCSU 4th & 4 at EKU 31, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%48% to convertField goal98.1%−0.154% to makePunt98.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 4:32EKU 4th & 10 at EKU 21, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 11:22EKU 4th & 10 at EKU 25, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:52NCSU 4th & 5 at EKU 28, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%41% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.160% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:52NCSU 4th & 19 at EKU 31, up 35Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−0.111% to convertField goal99.9%54% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q2 12:54NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:12NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:25NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:37NCSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:22NCSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEKUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
97.8%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Arien Beasley for 8 yds to the EKent 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 30
-2
97.8%
Bennie Coney sacked by B.J. Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 28
-14
97.8%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-14 Yards) to the EKent 14Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 14
+7
97.8%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 39 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 7 yds to the EKent 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2MISSED FG13 plays · 31 yds · 7:0698% → 97%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
97.7%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Noah Spence for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 46 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 28
OWN 36
+8
97.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 8 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 20
OWN 44
+20
97.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 20 yds to the EKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
97.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 7 yds to the EKent 29Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-4
97.7%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Avery Pitt for a loss of 4 yards to the EKent 15Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
96.5%
Kyle Bambard 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Stanley Absanon TEAM return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 6:23
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.6%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 56 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 24 NC STATE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q1 2:39
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
95.7%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5396% → 96%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+10
95.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Gavin Locklear for 10 yds to the EKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+22
95.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 22 yds to the EKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Benson Browne for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
95.5%
Bennie Coney run for a loss of 5 yards to the EKent 25 Bennie Coney fumbled, recovered by EKent Dy'Shawn MobleySimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+21
95.7%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Jeff Glover for 21 yds to the EKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
95.3%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (Arien Beasley) to the EKent 40Similar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 16
OWN 40
-3
95.5%
Bennie Coney run for a loss of 3 yards to the EKent 37 Bennie Coney fumbled, recovered by EKent Arien BeasleySimilar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 19
OWN 37
-5
95.6%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the EKent 32Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
95.7%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3695% → 97%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
95.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 19 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
95.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 7 yds to the EKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+11
95.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 11 yds to the EKent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 8DOWNS17 plays · 66 yds · 3:524% → 4%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
96.2%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Jeff Glover for 22 yds to the EKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
96.0%
Dy'Shawn Mobley run for 11 yds to the NCSTATE 42 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Niles Clark) to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+20
96.1%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Jeff Glover for 20 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
95.8%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Mike Stevens) to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
95.2%
Bennie Coney sacked by Mike Rose for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
NCSUDrive 10TD5 plays · 70 yds · 1:2996% → 99%
EKUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
NCSUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
98.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
98.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 1
50
0
98.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Stanley Absanon at the EKent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 10:05
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+25
98.4%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 56 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 25 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 8:29
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+38
98.5%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 53 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 38 yds to the EKent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD6 plays · 37 yds · 2:5799% → 100%
Q3 7:34
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+23
98.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 15 yds to the EKent 16 for a 1ST down EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, roughing passer (8 Yards) to the EKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:32
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.8%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 53 yds , Gavin Locklear returns for 5 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD12 plays · 69 yds · 7:13100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
99.9%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (6 Yards) to the EKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the EKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+25
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 25 yds to the EKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for no gain to the EKent 7 EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (4 Yards) to the EKent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
99.9%
Kyle Romano pass complete to Jeff Glover for a loss of 3 yards to the EKent 29Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.9%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (Kyle Romano) to the EKent 24Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Kyle Romano pass complete to Kentayvus Hopkins for 1 yd to the EKent 25Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20DOWNS16 plays · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:52
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
99.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Maurice Morgan for 15 yds to the EKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 3 yds to the EKent 45Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+12
99.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 12 yds to the EKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-2
99.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 26Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-5
99.9%
NC STATE Penalty, delay of game (Jalan McClendon) to the EKent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:25
Matthew Dayes run for 25 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 5:12
Jaylen Samuels run for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+1.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Zack Burgy-VanHoose kickoff for 56 yds , Nyheim Hines return for 21 yds to the NCSt 30
-1.3