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TROY

Troy 21 at NC State 49

NCSU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Ryan Kay punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+43.7Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:28: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:01: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 37 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +5.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:49: Matthew Dayes run for 30 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:18: Brandon Burks run for 57 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +5.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:14: Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:15NCSU 4th & 1 at TROY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:29TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NCSU 4th & 3 at TROY 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:04TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:37NCSU 4th & 7 at TROY 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:27TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:18TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:18NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.9%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:18NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:14TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:36TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:55NCSU 4th & 3 at TROY 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:47TROY 4th & 25 at TROY 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:34NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 39, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:58NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:50TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:29NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:04NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:01TROY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:49NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:18TROY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:14NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:36NCSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.7%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.7%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+3
93.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:1793% → 93%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
93.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 21 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
93.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
93.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
93.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
93.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
93.4%
TROY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 5
OPP 24
+5
93.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 5 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
93.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
93.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:087% → 9%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 11 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
92.8%
Brandon Burks run for 8 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+16
92.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 16 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
92.7%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+33
92.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 33 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
92.6%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2192% → 92%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
91.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 10 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
91.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
50
+18
91.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSTATE 47 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Cedarius Rookard) to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
91.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 10 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
91.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+15
91.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 15 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
91.7%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 30 Brandon Burks fumbled, recovered by Troy Brandon BurksSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
91.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
92.0%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
92.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:4892% → 93%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
91.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 1 yd to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
91.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+19
91.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 19 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
91.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 8 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-1
91.6%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
91.5%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+5
91.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 5 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
91.7%
Dakwa Nichols run for 14 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
91.7%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
91.7%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+10
91.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 10 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
92.0%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
92.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
92.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for no gain to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
92.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
92.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 15 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
93.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
93.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for no gain Jaylen Samuels fumbled, forced by Terris Lewis,Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+3
92.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
92.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Bryan Holmes at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
92.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 10 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.1%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
92.0%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
92.0%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
91.9%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
92.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+9
92.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 9 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
92.0%
Ryan Kay punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:0692% → 98%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
92.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+10
92.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 10 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+14
92.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 14 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
92.2%
Dakwa Nichols run for 8 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+30
92.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Gavin Locklear for 15 yds to the NCSTATE 42 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, personal foul (Mitchell Roland) to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
92.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 9 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+4
92.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
92.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
97.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:204% → 9%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+45
96.5%
Brandon Burks run for 30 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
91.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 37 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
93.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 17 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
93.5%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Tyler Roberts for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+5
93.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 5 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+4
93.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
92.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
93.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 2 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+2
93.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+2
93.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
93.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:3894% → 98%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
93.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+30
98.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 30 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:313% → 8%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
97.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 9 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
92.2%
Brandon Burks run for 57 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
93.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
93.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
93.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-7
93.6%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Jamal Stadom for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
93.1%
A.J. Cole III punt for 39 yds, downed at the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
92.7%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Dravious Wright for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 14 Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by NCSt Dravious Wright , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5895% → 99%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
94.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-3
94.5%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 16Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+14
94.2%
TROY Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Montres Kitchens) to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
94.5%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 3Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.1%
Brandon Burks run for 10 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.0%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
98.0%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+33
98.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 46 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 33 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:5799% → 100%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
98.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 26 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
98.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+9
98.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
98.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Benson Browne for 7 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+3
98.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the Troy 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the Troy 1Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Benson Browne for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to John Johnson, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
99.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 10 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Jalan McClendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Dakwa Nichols run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
Jalan McClendon run for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 3
OPP 33
-1
99.9%
Jalan McClendon sacked by Darrin Reddick for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 34 NC STATE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-8
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Dallas TidwellSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 18
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 25
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 18
OWN 26
-5
99.9%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 19 Andre Flakes fumbled, forced by Justin Jones, recovered by Troy Dallas TidwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
99.9%
Ben Grazen run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Riley Nicholson for 3 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
99.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Justin Lucas at the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25INT
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
100.0%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 9 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+6
100.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+33
100.0%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 33 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass intercepted Mike Stevens return for no gain to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
100.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:01
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 37 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q2 0:28
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+5
TD · Q3 9:18
Brandon Burks run for 57 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com