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ARST

Arkansas State 6 at USC 55

USC
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:01 · Kris Albarado punt for 49 yds, downed at the ArkSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+37.0Home team on offense+8.0Score differential+3.9Blowout margin−0.3Garbage-time factor+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +1.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:26: Tre Madden run for 65 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +2.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:32: Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:00: Michael Gordon run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARST win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:21: Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:31ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07USC 4th & 18 at USC 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:52ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:25USC 4th & 2 at ARST 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:49USC 4th & 11 at USC 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:40ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:14ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:01USC 4th & 8 at USC 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:40ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:30ARST 4th & 3 at USC 27, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:09USC 4th & 2 at USC 48, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:56USC 4th & 7 at USC 18, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:31USC 4th & 7 at USC 48, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:03ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 30, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:33ARST 4th & 8 at USC 37, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:17ARST 4th & 3 at USC 46, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 13:46USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:26USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:32USC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:00ARST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:21USC Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:38USC Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:16USC Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 0:5296% → 96%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
95.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 15 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.7%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
95.6%
Tre Madden run for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+61
95.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 61 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:094% → 5%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Warren LeapheartSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
95.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
95.5%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
95.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 50 yds, downed at the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:1396% → 95%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
95.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+10
95.4%
Tre Madden run for 10 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
95.4%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete to Smith-Schuster, JuJu, PENALTY ARKST pass interference (Brown, Cody) 15 yards to the USC36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
95.4%
Tre Madden run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.4%
Tre Madden run for no gain to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
95.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-8
95.3%
Cody Kessler sacked by Tajhea Chambers for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
95.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 43 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:105% → 5%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
95.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-6
95.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Kenny Bigelow Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 16
OWN 3
-1
95.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Dijon Paschal) to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 17
OWN 2
0
95.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 17
OWN 2
+9
95.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 54 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1395% → 95%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
95.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 5 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
95.1%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
95.0%
Tre Madden run for no gain to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+1
94.9%
Tre Madden run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6INT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:455% → 6%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
94.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 19 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
94.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Blake Mack for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
94.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+35
94.2%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Chris Hawkins return for 20 yds to the USC 11 USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Antwaun Woods) to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:3195% → 94%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
94.5%
Cody Kessler sacked by Tajhea Chambers for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 8Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+13
94.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 13 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+9
94.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 9 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
94.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
94.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-8
94.3%
Cody Kessler sacked by Darrius Rosser for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+7
94.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for 7 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+6
93.8%
Kris Albarado punt for 48 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 6 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:006% → 6%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
93.9%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 25
-3
93.7%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
93.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+31
93.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 49 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 31 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:1194% → 95%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
94.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Isaac Whitney for 31 yds to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
94.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
95.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:315% → 5%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
94.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 14 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
94.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-6
94.7%
Tyler Trosin run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+5
94.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Johnston White for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 10
OWN 48
-2
94.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 36 yds , Christian Tober returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0595% → 95%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
95.1%
Tre Madden run for 5 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-3
95.1%
Cody Kessler sacked by Charleston Girley and Tajhea Chambers for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 16Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
95.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Christian ToberSimilar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
94.8%
Kris Albarado punt for 49 yds, downed at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:505% → 5%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
94.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
94.6%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
94.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+26
94.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
97.5%
Tre Madden run for 65 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:483% → 3%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
97.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
97.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+10
97.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
96.9%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-12
97.0%
Tyler Trosin run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Joseph Bacchus) to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 21
OWN 23
0
97.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Christian Tober at the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:2398% → 99%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
97.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+10
97.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 10 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
97.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
97.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Jalen Greene for 13 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+18
97.7%
Jalen Greene pass complete to Dominic Davis for 18 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
97.8%
Soma Vainuku run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:481% → 1%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 6 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+26
99.3%
Warren Wand run for 26 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.3%
Booker Mays run for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
99.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
99.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.4%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
99.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+4
99.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
99.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:10100% → 100%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tyler Petite for 5 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-9
99.5%
Cody Kessler sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:464% → 3%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+41
96.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 41 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 5 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
99.2%
Tres Houston pass incomplete to Fredi KnightenSimilar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+6
99.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+17
99.4%
Michael Gordon run for 17 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.3%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:3699% → 99%
Q4 14:45
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+31
98.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Dominic Davis for 31 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.1%
Dominic Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
99.2%
Max Browne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
99.2%
Max Browne pass complete to Christian Tober for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 38 yds, fair catch by TEAM at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5198% → 98%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
98.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 13 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
98.0%
Tre Madden run for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+2
98.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 2 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
98.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
98.0%
Kris Albarado punt for 34 yds, downed at the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:172% → 2%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
97.8%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the USC 45 Michael Gordon fumbled, forced by Jabari Ruffin, recovered by USC Chris HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5798% → 98%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
98.3%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
98.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Christian ToberSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
98.4%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (Kris Albarado) to the USC 48Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
98.4%
Kris Albarado punt for 32 yds, fair catch by TEAM at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.9%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
97.7%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
97.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
97.9%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+32
97.8%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Su'a Cravens return for 32 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3199% → 100%
Q3 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
98.6%
Tre Madden run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.7%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Christian Tober at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+12
99.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Jalen Greene for 12 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Isaac Whitney for 7 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+44
99.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 44 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27END OF GAME
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:300% → 0%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.8%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+9
99.8%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+40
99.9%
James Tabary pass complete to Darion Griswold for 40 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
99.8%
James Tabary pass complete to Michael Gordon for 11 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.8%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
99.8%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+1
99.9%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
99.9%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+13
99.9%
James Tabary pass complete to Booker Mays for 13 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
99.9%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+8
99.9%
James Tabary pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 8 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+46
99.9%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards Michael Gordon fumbled, recovered by USC Osa Masina , return for 46 yds, (Alex Wood PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
100.0%
James Tabary pass complete to Tres Houston for 13 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
100.0%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+13
100.0%
Johnston White run for 13 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
100.0%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
100.0%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
100.0%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
100.0%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 30TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 38Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+25
99.9%
Max Browne pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 25 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+5
100.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
100.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Money Hunter) to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
100.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
100.0%
Logan Moragne run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
100.0%
Logan Moragne run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+10
100.0%
Cameron Birse pass complete to Warren Wand for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
100.0%
Logan Moragne run for 5 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+2
100.0%
Cameron Birse pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+1
100.0%
Logan Moragne run for 1 yd to the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 32Uncategorized
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:26
Tre Madden run for 65 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q3 13:00
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-2.1
TD · Q1 0:00
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com