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ECU

East Carolina 20 at Florida 28

FLA
2014 · Birmingham Bowl · Jan 3, 2015 · Legion Field
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:28 · Kyle Christy punt for 40 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 7 yds to the ECaro 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 195Home team on offense+21.1Pregame prior+1.2Garbage-time factor+15.4Score differential+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:09: Brian Poole 29 Yd Interception Return (Austin Hardin Kick) — FLA win probability +4.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: Adam Lane run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +4.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:23: Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +5.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:51: Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +9.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:20: Ahmad Fulwood 86 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Austin Hardin Kick) — FLA win probability +9.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:55ECU 4th & 1 at FLA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:56FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:18FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:50ECU 4th & 4 at FLA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:46ECU 4th & 2 at FLA 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−1.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:54FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:42ECU 4th & 15 at FLA 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:54ECU 4th & 22 at ECU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−2.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:36FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.5%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:10ECU 4th & 6 at FLA 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−7.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:03FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:00ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:20FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:57ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:54FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:55ECU 4th & 6 at FLA 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−5.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:06FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:53ECU 4th & 16 at ECU 16, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:21ECU 4th & 21 at FLA 38, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%−1.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:28FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:06ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:09FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:23FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:51ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:20FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:5030% → 30%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
70.5%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 22Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+10
70.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 10 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+17
70.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Steve Baggett for 2 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Antonio Morrison) to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
70.1%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+7
70.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
69.9%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the Fla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4970% → 70%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
70.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 3 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
70.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
70.1%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
69.9%
Kyle Christy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:4930% → 35%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
69.8%
Chris Hairston run for 8 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
69.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 5 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
69.6%
Shane Carden run for 5 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
69.3%
Shane Carden run for 4 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
69.2%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
69.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 6 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+26
68.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 26 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
68.5%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
68.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+5
68.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 5 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
68.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 9 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
65.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 3 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:4267% → 65%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
66.6%
Mack Brown run for 8 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+2
66.8%
Mack Brown run for 2 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
66.5%
Treon Harris run for 1 yd to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
66.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Quinton DunbarSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
65.7%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
65.3%
Kyle Christy punt for 46 yds, downed at the ECaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5INT TD
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5635% → 31%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
65.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Anthony Scott for 1 yd to the ECaro 12Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 12
-5
65.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (J.T. Boyd) to the ECaro 7Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 14
OWN 7
0
65.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 14
OWN 7
+15
65.1%
Chris Hairston run for 15 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
64.4%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the ECaro 22Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
64.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Marcus MayeSimilar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+29
68.6%
Brian Poole 29 Yd Interception Return (Austin Hardin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:1232% → 33%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.2%
Chris Hairston run for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
67.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Quay Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
67.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 27 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
66.4%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
65.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+2
66.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 2 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
66.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for no gain to the Fla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:4968% → 74%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+48
68.4%
Adam Lane run for 48 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
69.8%
Adam Lane run for 3 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+15
69.8%
Adam Lane run for 15 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.8%
Adam Lane run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:4928% → 28%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
71.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 8 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+6
71.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 6 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
71.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 6 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
70.8%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
71.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
71.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:2373% → 83%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
72.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (D.J. Humphries) to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
72.8%
Treon Harris run for 1 yd to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 14
OWN 16
-3
72.9%
Treon Harris sacked by Fred Presley for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 13Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+24
72.3%
Treon Harris run for 24 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
73.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Fla 38Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
73.8%
Adam Lane run for 1 yd to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+15
73.3%
Harris, Treon pass incomplete to Robinson, Demarcus (Allen, Detric), PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Allen, Detric) 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA. Similar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
74.9%
Adam Lane run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+18
74.7%
Treon Harris pass complete to Clay Burton for 18 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
76.1%
Treon Harris run for 5 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
76.1%
Mack Brown run for 4 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
76.3%
Mack Brown run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
77.0%
Mack Brown run for 2 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
77.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 3 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
82.6%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10FUMBLE
14 plays · 68 yds · 2:4619% → 20%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
81.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
81.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+12
81.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 12 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
81.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ike Harris) to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+18
81.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 18 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
80.6%
Shane Carden run for 3 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+8
80.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 8 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.3%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
80.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+26
81.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 26 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jalen Tabor) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
80.2%
Kurt Benkert run for 6 yds to the Fla 1 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) ( Yards) to the Fla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.3%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the Fla 1 Kurt Benkert fumbled, forced by Gerald Willis, recovered by Fla Brian PooleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2683% → 83%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
83.1%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+10
83.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 10 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
83.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 5
OWN 16
-6
84.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 10Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
83.6%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Ahmad FulwoodSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 11
OWN 10
+6
83.4%
Kyle Christy punt for 51 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:0417% → 16%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
82.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 11 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
81.7%
Anthony Scott run for 24 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
80.7%
Anthony Scott run for 3 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-8
80.8%
Shane Carden sacked by Dante Fowler for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
83.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin Hardy, broken up by Marcus MayeSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
83.8%
Warren Harvey 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.3%
Adam Lane run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5786% → 85%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
85.5%
Adam Lane run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 13
OWN 43
-1
85.4%
Adam Lane run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 14
OWN 42
0
85.0%
Treon Harris pass intercepted Josh Hawkins return for no gain to the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:2916% → 28%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+66
84.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 66 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.7%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
4 plays · 91 yds · 1:2075% → 86%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
75.2%
Treon Harris run for 5 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
75.7%
Mack Brown run for no gain to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+86
85.5%
Ahmad Fulwood 86 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Austin Hardin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:1915% → 14%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
84.9%
Chris Hairston run for 17 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
84.0%
Justin Hardy pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-12
84.7%
Shane Carden sacked by Jonathan Bullard for a loss of 12 yards to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 22
OWN 40
-3
86.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 47 yds , Demarcus Robinson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 37 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (4 Yards) to the Fla 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:0987% → 88%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
87.1%
Adam Lane run for 5 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+10
87.3%
Adam Lane run for 10 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
87.6%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Adam Lane run for no gain to the Fla 21Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+9
87.2%
Treon Harris run for 9 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+20
87.9%
Adam Lane run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line Adam Lane fumbled, recovered by ECaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:2015% → 19%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
50
+13
84.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 13 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
84.8%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+25
83.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 19 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the Fla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q3 6:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
81.5%
Warren Harvey 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0284% → 83%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.8%
Mack Brown run for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
84.4%
Treon Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
83.5%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
82.7%
Kyle Christy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5618% → 16%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
82.5%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
82.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+3
83.7%
Shane Carden run for 3 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
84.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3185% → 85%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
85.2%
Treon Harris run for 2 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+2
85.6%
Treon Harris run for 2 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
85.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
84.7%
Kyle Christy punt for 45 yds, downed at the ECaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2316% → 13%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
84.0%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+2
85.3%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
85.5%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
86.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4687% → 86%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
86.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 6 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
87.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-4
87.1%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Maurice Falls for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
86.4%
Kyle Christy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:5116% → 17%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
84.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 16 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
83.4%
Anthony Scott run for 11 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
82.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
82.2%
Chris Hairston run for 7 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
82.3%
Isaiah Jones pass incomplete to Shane CardenSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+5
83.6%
Shane Carden run for 5 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
82.4%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
82.7%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
84.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
83.0%
Warren Harvey 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3987% → 86%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
86.8%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Quinton DunbarSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Adam LaneSimilar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
85.5%
Kyle Christy punt for 54 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 5 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:3715% → 11%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
85.4%
Shane Carden sacked by Dante Fowler for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 16Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 16
OWN 16
0
85.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 16
OWN 16
0
87.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+3
88.7%
Worth Gregory punt for 52 yds , Demarcus Robinson returns for 3 yds to the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 28FUMBLE
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0388% → 92%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
88.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
89.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 3 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
88.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 4 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
90.6%
Mack Brown run for no gain to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
90.6%
Jeff Driskel run for 2 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+12
90.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 12 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.5%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Ahmad FulwoodSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
91.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Chris Thompson for 5 yds Chris Thompson fumbled, forced by Josh Hawkins, recovered by ECaro Fred PresleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:0913% → 10%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
87.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 13 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
86.1%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
86.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+30
88.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 30 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
83.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 15
OPP 32
-8
84.8%
Shane Carden sacked by Dante Fowler for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 23
OPP 40
+2
87.3%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 21
OPP 38
0
89.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 21
OPP 38
0
90.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4993% → 92%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
93.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
92.9%
Adam Lane run for 6 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Quinton Dunbar, broken up by Detric AllenSimilar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+7
92.3%
Kyle Christy punt for 40 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 7 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 31INT
9 plays · 53 yds · 1:5613% → 16%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
87.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 4 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+6
86.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 6 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
87.6%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+24
88.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 24 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.5%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam Worthy, broken up by Jalen TaborSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+18
84.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 18 yds Isaiah Jones fumbled, recovered by ECaro Jimmy Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.4%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.4%
Shane Carden pass intercepted, touchback. Vernon Hargreaves return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 32END OF GAME
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:1796% → 97%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.6%
Adam Lane run for 2 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
96.4%
Adam Lane run for 4 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+9
96.9%
Jeff Driskel run for 9 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-5
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:20
Ahmad Fulwood 86 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Austin Hardin Kick)
+9.8
TD · Q3 12:51
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q2 6:23
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com