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NCSU

NC State 34 at UCF 27

UCF
2014 · Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl · Dec 26, 2014 · Tropicana Field
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:44 · Caleb Houston punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense−4.4Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−2.3Pregame prior+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:05: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 37 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:55: Matt Dayes run for 24 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:05: Matt Dayes run for 15 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:01: Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 14 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +12.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:44: Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 2 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +17.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 12NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:06UCF 4th & 5 at NCSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:55UCF 4th & 4 at midfield, down 4
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:59NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 16, up 4
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:08UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:16NCSU 4th & 2 at UCF 2, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−8.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:44UCF 4th & 9 at NCSU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:32UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:23UCF 4th & 2 at NCSU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−1.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:45UCF 4th & 6 at NCSU 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:54UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 37, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:06UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:37NCSU 4th & 7 at UCF 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:04NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:19NCSU 4th & 17 at UCF 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:17UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:32UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:56NCSU 4th & 7 at UCF 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:14UCF 4th & 14 at NCSU 43, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%
    28% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:11NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:34UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:05NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:55NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:05NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:01UCF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:44UCF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:4458% → 59%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.3%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
58.4%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
58.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 8 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
58.5%
Justin Holman run for 8 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
58.7%
William Stanback run for 6 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
58.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
58.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 4 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+15
58.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 15 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
59.0%
Rannell Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
58.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+8
58.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 8 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
59.2%
Shawn Moffitt 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4241% → 44%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
59.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for 11 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
58.9%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 5
50
+11
58.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 11 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
58.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+18
58.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 18 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
58.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 1 yd to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
55.8%
Shadrach Thornton pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 18 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:0557% → 57%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
56.8%
Rannell Hall run for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
56.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 8 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
57.7%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
57.3%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
57.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
57.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+5
57.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Rodman Noel) to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-2
57.5%
William Stanback run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 4
50
0
56.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3644% → 43%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
56.4%
Matt Dayes run for 7 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 3
OWN 14
0
56.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for no gain to the NCSt 14Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+2
56.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 1
OWN 16
-2
56.9%
Wil Baumann punt for 49 yds , Josh Reese returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:1956% → 62%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
56.0%
William Stanback run for 14 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
57.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 19 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
58.0%
Josh Reese run for 6 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
58.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 5 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
58.0%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
58.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-5
57.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tarik Cook) to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+19
56.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 19 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
58.7%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.8%
William Stanback run for no gain to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
62.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 6 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:2439% → 48%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
61.0%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Tony Adams) to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+10
61.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 10 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
60.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
60.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 9 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
59.5%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
60.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 8 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+10
59.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 10 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
52.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 37 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5255% → 53%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.7%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
53.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
53.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Sideline Interference (TEAM) to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
53.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:3247% → 56%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-14
53.1%
Bryan Underwood run for a loss of 14 yards to the NCSt 10Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 24
OWN 10
+2
53.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 22
OWN 12
+33
54.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 33 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
50.9%
Matt Dayes run for 6 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+45
50.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 45 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
49.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.5%
Shadrach Thornton run for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
48.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
43.8%
Niklas Sade 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:2447% → 46%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
47.4%
William Stanback run for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+24
48.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 24 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
49.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
49.5%
Justin Holman run for 1 yd to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
48.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
46.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 52 yds · 1:3356% → 63%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.6%
Matt Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
43.5%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chequan Burkett) to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
42.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 9 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+26
40.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 26 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
38.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+15
38.6%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Shaquill Griffin) to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
36.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
-12
37.1%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Miles Pace and Jaryl Mamea for a loss of 12 yards to the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5859% → 75%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 13 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
39.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
38.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+9
39.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
50
+3
37.9%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
37.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+12
38.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 12 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
37.1%
Matt Dayes run for 11 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
24.9%
Matt Dayes run for 24 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1228% → 27%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
28.2%
Rannell Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
27.1%
Justin Holman run for 10 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
26.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
26.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2277% → 79%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
23.5%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Thomas Niles for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, forced by Thomas Niles, recovered by NCSt Quinton Schooley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
23.2%
Matt Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+18
23.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 18 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
21.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 34 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, recovered by UCF Thomas NilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14FG
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:2927% → 30%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
27.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Justin Tukes for no gain to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
27.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+8
25.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 8 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+3
25.7%
Justin Holman run for 3 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
26.7%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+5
25.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 5 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
24.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
29.7%
Shawn Moffitt 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3072% → 92%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
28.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 24 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
25.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 9 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
24.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
24.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tyler Purvis for 9 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+7
23.6%
Matt Dayes run for 7 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
23.2%
Matt Dayes run for 8 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
7.9%
Matt Dayes run for 15 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5614% → 13%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
14.3%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
13.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
12.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
12.5%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler Purvis at the NCSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4892% → 93%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
8.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 17 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
7.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
7.2%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
6.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
7.2%
Wil Baumann punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Josh Reese at the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5410% → 8%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
9.8%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
9.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
9.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
8.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1994% → 97%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
5.9%
Bo Hines pass complete to Jacoby Brissett for 20 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
5.5%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
5.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Shadrach ThorntonSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
5.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bo HinesSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
3.1%
Niklas Sade 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:284% → 16%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
3.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 33 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
3.9%
Justin Holman sacked by Mike Rose for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 16
OPP 48
0
3.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 16
OPP 48
+34
3.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 34 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
15.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 14 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5391% → 92%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
8.6%
Matt Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
8.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matt DayesSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
8.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David GrinnageSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
8.4%
Wil Baumann punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:5411% → 9%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
10.9%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
10.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
10.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
50
0
9.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
50
0
9.5%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 10
50
+36
9.0%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Josh Jones return for 36 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:4194% → 95%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
50
-3
6.2%
Matt Dayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+13
6.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 13 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
5.8%
Matt Dayes run for 1 yd to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+2
5.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-10
5.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tony Adams) to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 17
OPP 47
0
5.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
5.3%
Wil Baumann punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:435% → 4%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
5.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
5.2%
Justin Holman run for 8 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
5.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+4
5.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
4.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
4.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
4.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
4.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jackie WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2096% → 97%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
3.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
3.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-5
2.7%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Tyson Chandler) to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
2.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bryan UnderwoodSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
3.0%
Niklas Sade 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 1:053% → 19%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
3.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 18 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
3.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 13 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
3.2%
Justin Holman sacked by T.Y. McGill for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
1.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 14
OPP 43
0
1.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 14
OPP 43
+19
1.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 19 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
1.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 17 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
1.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
1.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Jones) to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.0%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 2 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2096% → 96%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-2
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-1
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:44
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 2 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)
+17.4
TD · Q3 3:05
Matt Dayes run for 15 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q4 11:01
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 14 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)
+12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com