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TOL

Toledo 63 at Arkansas State 44

ARST
2014 · GoDaddy Bowl · Jan 4, 2015 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLETDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:29 · Nick Ellis punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Pregame prior−4.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:34: Allen Covington 67 Yd Fumble Return (Jeremiah Detmer Kick) — TOL win probability +10.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:40: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 55 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK) — ARST win probability +12.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:06: Money Hunter 94 Yd Interception Return (Logan Spry Kick) — ARST win probability +13.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:46: Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +12.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:08: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 27 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK) — ARST win probability +11.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:29TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:39ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:52ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:18ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:42TOL 4th & 21 at TOL 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:13ARST 4th & 7 at TOL 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:28TOL 4th & 2 at ARST 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−1.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:22TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 34, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:36ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:36ARST 4th & 11 at TOL 38, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:33ARST 4th & 1 at TOL 15, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:34TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:06ARST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.4%
Trent Voss 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jeremiah Detmer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0645% → 46%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.4%
J.D. McKissic run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
45.4%
Michael Gordon run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
45.4%
Michael Gordon run for 8 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
45.5%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
46.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 44 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:4654% → 53%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
45.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 11 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
45.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
45.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for no gain to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
45.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
45.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+6
46.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 6 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
46.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Dwight MaconSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
46.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2247% → 47%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
46.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
47.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
47.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Kenneth RainsSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+47
46.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the ARKST 23 TOLEDO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Corey Jones) to the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 4:2253% → 57%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
46.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 5 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 17
-5
46.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+4
47.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 10 yds Alonzo Russell fumbled, recovered by Toled Kareem Hunt for a 1ST down , return for 4 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
46.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 9 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
46.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
46.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-4
46.8%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+21
47.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 21 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
46.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
46.1%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+17
46.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 17 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
42.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5644% → 43%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.8%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
43.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
43.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:5457% → 63%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
43.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 3 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
42.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 8 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+44
37.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 44 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 0:4238% → 43%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
38.3%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+20
38.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 20 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
43.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 66 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:4758% → 58%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
42.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 6 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+14
42.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 14 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
41.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
41.1%
Justin Olack run for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
41.2%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+9
42.0%
Nick Ellis punt for 42 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2743% → 42%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
42.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
43.5%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-3
42.8%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
41.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3158% → 57%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
41.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-4
41.8%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 20
-7
43.0%
Logan Woodside sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 21
OWN 13
0
43.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:2044% → 47%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
43.9%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
42.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 1 yd to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+27
42.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Blake Mack for 27 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
45.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 11 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
45.4%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
44.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+5
42.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
47.0%
Logan Spry 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:3255% → 67%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
44.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
44.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
44.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
43.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
43.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
50
+9
42.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 9 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
42.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
42.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
42.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+3
41.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+4
41.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+29
33.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 29 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:3633% → 26%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
33.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+65
32.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 65 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
36.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-67
26.0%
Allen Covington 67 Yd Fumble Return (Jeremiah Detmer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
21.4%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2882% → 82%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
17.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
17.6%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
17.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 42 yds, downed at the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3419% → 17%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
18.7%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-3
18.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Treyvon Hester for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+6
17.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 6 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+39
17.3%
Luke Ferguson punt for 39 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:0485% → 97%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
15.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
14.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
14.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 2
50
+6
13.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
13.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+9
12.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+25
12.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 19 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:162% → 14%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
2.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+3
2.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+7
2.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
2.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+4
1.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+3
2.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+13
1.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 13 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
1.9%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+55
13.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 55 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20INT TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:0491% → 80%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
9.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+23
7.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 23 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
6.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+1
6.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+94
20.2%
Money Hunter 94 Yd Interception Return (Logan Spry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1277% → 96%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
22.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 23 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
19.9%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
19.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
18.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
17.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
17.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+5
15.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
15.4%
Logan Woodside run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
15.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 6 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 0
OPP 1
0
16.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Xavier Woodson) to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST down, Xavier Woodson disqualified for threatening an officialSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:226% → 18%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
6.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Kenneth Rains for 9 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+4
6.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
5.9%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
6.2%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+27
17.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 27 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:0287% → 97%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
12.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+40
12.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 40 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
10.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
10.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+9
9.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
2.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 4:084% → 9%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
3.8%
Knighten, Fredi pass complete to Gordon, Michael for no gain to the ARKST25, PENALTY TOLEDO face mask 15 yards to the ARKST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
3.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 11 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
3.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 12 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
2.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 1 yd to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-2
2.8%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
2.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+14
2.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 14 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
3.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
2.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+9
2.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Blake Mack for 9 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+12
2.7%
Michael Gordon run for 12 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
2.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (1 Yards) to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
3.0%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
2.8%
Johnston White run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
2.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (3 Yards) to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:0697% → 99%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
3.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
2.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
1.7%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+29
0.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 29 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:451% → 2%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
1.4%
Johnston White run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
1.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+3
1.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 3 yds to the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:06
Money Hunter 94 Yd Interception Return (Logan Spry Kick)
+13.4
TD · Q4 11:46
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 4:40
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 55 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com