Try the model
FSU

Florida State 27 at Florida 2

FLA
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:18 · Johnny Townsend punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense−8.7Score differential−3.8Garbage-time factor−1.7Pregame prior+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:47: Sean Maguire pass complete to Jeremy Kerr for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:21: Roberto Aguayo 51 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:55: FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alec Eberle) to the FlaSt 19 — FSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:07: Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 25 — FSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:17: Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 13:21FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49FSU 4th & 10 at FLA 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%
    66% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:35FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:27FSU 4th & 9 at FLA 9, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%
    89% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:59FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:10FSU 4th & 10 at FLA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:56FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:11FSU 4th & 8 at FLA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:06FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:47FSU 4th & 1 at FLA 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:18FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:26FSU 4th & 10 at FLA 25, up 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%
    66% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:18FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:45FSU 4th & 3 at FLA 25, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−0.3
    66% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:01FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:21FSU 4th & 2 at FLA 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%−2.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−3.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:22FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.6%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:58FSU 4th & 9 at FLA 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:13FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 31, down 13
    Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:46FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:20FSU 4th & 3 at FLA 29, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 7:47FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 6:17FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:20FSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3157% → 56%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
56.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 1 yd to the Fla 23Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
56.5%
Brandon Powell run for 2 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
56.5%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 7
OWN 25
-2
56.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 53 yds , Derwin James returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 23 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2644% → 43%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
56.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-1
56.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Dalvin CookSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
56.3%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+3
56.6%
Cason Beatty punt for 55 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 3 yds to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0757% → 57%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
56.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 20 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
57.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 2 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
57.2%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-7
56.9%
Treon Harris sacked by Terrance Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 15
OWN 38
+54
56.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Derwin James at the FLORIDA 15 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5544% → 44%
Q1 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
56.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 1 yd to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.7%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
56.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
0
56.5%
Cason Beatty punt for 45 yds, downed at the Fla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 28 yds · 5:2157% → 56%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
57.4%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jordan Scarlett for 1 yd to the Fla 47Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
57.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 6
50
+8
57.4%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
57.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
57.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
56.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Formation (David Sharpe) to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+3
56.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
56.6%
Treon Harris run for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+10
56.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 10 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 2
OWN 20
-6
55.8%
Treon Harris sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:4146% → 44%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
54.4%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Dalvin Cook for no gain to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+29
54.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 29 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
54.3%
Jesus Wilson run for 2 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-2
54.3%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
55.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
55.9%
Cason Beatty punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Vernon Hargreaves III at the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0557% → 56%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
57.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+1
57.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
56.2%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
55.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 36 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for no gain to the Fla 15 FLORIDA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Chris Thompson) to the Fla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4546% → 47%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
53.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jarrad Davis) to the Fla 36Similar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+6
53.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
53.2%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
53.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
53.9%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
53.0%
Roberto Aguayo 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0354% → 52%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.9%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
52.7%
Treon Harris run for 2 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
52.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:1350% → 57%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
50.5%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+21
50.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 21 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+45
51.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 45 yds to the Fla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.6%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
49.6%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 7 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.9%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jeremy Kerr for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2345% → 44%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.1%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
44.9%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
44.4%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 52 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4459% → 58%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
41.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+7
40.9%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 7 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
40.6%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 5
OPP 30
-5
42.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 10
OPP 25
0
42.0%
Cason Beatty punt for 56 yds, downed at the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0143% → 41%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
42.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
42.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
42.5%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
42.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
41.6%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
41.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2562% → 62%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
38.5%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-1
38.0%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
37.6%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+5
37.7%
Cason Beatty punt for 60 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 5 yds to the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 1:3439% → 36%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
39.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 8 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
39.6%
Treon Harris run for 4 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
39.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 9 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
40.4%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+4
39.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
39.7%
Treon Harris pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for no gain to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
39.0%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 9 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
37.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
37.4%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
37.0%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 11 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
36.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+51
35.8%
Austin Hardin 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:0264% → 64%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
36.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
36.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-15
36.4%
Sean Maguire sacked by TEAM for a loss of 15 yards to the FlaSt 13 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sean Maguire) to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
36.3%
Cason Beatty punt for 43 yds, downed at the Fla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:4338% → 32%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
37.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
38.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
36.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
36.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+6
35.4%
Treon Harris pass complete to Chris Thompson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-6
34.3%
Treon Harris sacked by Javien Elliott for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
31.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:3468% → 79%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
32.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
31.7%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+10
32.3%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 10 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
31.6%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+6
31.6%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+22
31.7%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 22 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
30.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
29.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the Fla 37Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+3
28.6%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 3 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+51
20.9%
Roberto Aguayo 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19MISSED FG
17 plays · 56 yds · 6:1426% → 18%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.0%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
24.9%
Treon Harris pass complete to Valdez Showers for 15 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
25.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
50
+7
26.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Chris Thompson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-4
25.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla Treon HarrisSimilar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+12
24.0%
Treon Harris run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.6%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Kelvin TaylorSimilar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
23.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
21.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+1
21.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
21.0%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 9 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+4
20.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
20.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+3
19.6%
Treon Harris run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 6
-13
17.9%
Treon Harris sacked by TEAM for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 19 FLORIDA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Treon Harris) to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+37
18.2%
Austin Hardin 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by DeMarcus WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5787% → 88%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
13.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alec Eberle) to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+32
11.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 32 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
11.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+6
11.3%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
11.0%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
11.1%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
12.2%
Cason Beatty punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Vernon Hargreaves III at the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3718% → 14%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
17.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 6Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+22
17.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 22 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
18.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
15.8%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Jordan ScarlettSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
15.1%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
14.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22SF
3 plays · -19 yds · 1:0992% → 88%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
8.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
8.0%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
12.0%
Sean Maguire sacked by Cece Jefferson for a loss of 9 yards to FlaSt 16 Sean Maguire fumbled, forced by Cece Jefferson, recovered by FlaSt Sean Maguire , return for 0 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:5515% → 11%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
14.6%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
13.1%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 10
OWN 14
-6
12.6%
Treon Harris sacked by Derwin James for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 8Similar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 16
OWN 8
0
11.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:2990% → 98%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
10.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 15 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
9.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 12 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
8.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the Fla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
2.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:144% → 2%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.6%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 12 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
3.6%
Treon Harris run for 6 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+21
2.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 21 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
2.6%
Treon Harris pass complete to Chris Thompson for 11 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Javien Elliott) to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 0
OWN 10
0
2.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 0
OWN 10
0
2.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 0
OWN 10
0
2.1%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 0
OWN 10
0
2.2%
Treon Harris run for no gain to the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:2898% → 100%
Q4 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
1.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+20
1.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
1.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 16 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
1.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
1.0%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+1
0.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+29
0.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 29 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 5 yds to the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:47
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jeremy Kerr for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
-8.2
FG · Q3 5:21
Roberto Aguayo 51 yd FG GOOD
-7.7
TD · Q4 6:17
Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com