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FLA

Florida 21 at Missouri 3

MIZ
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:06 · Corey Fatony punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.5Pregame prior−6.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:09: Kelvin Taylor 1 Yd Run (Jorge Powell Kick) — FLA win probability +4.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Jorge Powell kickoff for 65 yds , John Gibson return for 19 yds to the Misso 19 — MIZ win probability +3.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:25: Jalen Tabor 40 Yd Interception Return (Jorge Powell Kick) — FLA win probability +11.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. SACK · Q3 2:58: Drew Lock sacked by Cece Jefferson for a loss of 17 yards to the Misso 17 MISSOURI Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Drew Lock) to the Misso 17 — MIZ win probability +4.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:08: Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 25 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST down — FLA win probability +3.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 12FLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 7:33MIZ 4th & 3 at FLA 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−2.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:29FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:06MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:08MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 35, down 11
    Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:28FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:36MIZ 4th & 10 at FLA 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:01FLA 4th & 18 at MIZ 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:04FLA 4th & 8 at MIZ 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:15MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:30MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:54FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:11MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:14FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:23MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:45FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 20, up 11
    Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:02MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:03FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:15MIZ 4th & 18 at MIZ 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−3.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:21FLA 4th & 8 at MIZ 23, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−4.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:32MIZ 4th & 6 at FLA 29, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−4.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:38FLA 4th & 8 at MIZ 42, up 18
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:43MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:19FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:31FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:09FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:25FLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1958% → 59%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
42.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 12 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
42.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-5
42.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (Will Grier) to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+13
42.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 13 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
42.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 7 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
42.8%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+14
42.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 14 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
42.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+15
42.9%
Brandon Powell run for 4 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (Nate Howard) to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
42.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+5
43.0%
Treon Harris run for 5 yds to the Misso 3Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
43.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.5%
Kelvin Taylor 1 Yd Run (Jorge Powell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 1:4442% → 44%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
42.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 19 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
42.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 8 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+32
42.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 32 yds to the Fla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Marcus MayeSimilar
Q1 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
43.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
44.0%
Andrew Baggett 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5057% → 56%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
43.4%
Brandon Powell run for no gain to the Fla 18Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
43.6%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Kelvin TaylorSimilar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
43.8%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Jake McGee, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+2
44.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 51 yds , Cam Hilton returns for 2 yds to the Misso 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0744% → 44%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
43.6%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
43.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 3 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
44.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Clayton EchardSimilar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
43.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:4956% → 62%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
43.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+3
43.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 3 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+7
43.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 7 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
43.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+10
43.6%
Will Grier run for 10 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
42.9%
Grier, Will pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the FLORIDA41 (Beckner Jr., Terry), PENALTY MISSOURI face mask (Beckner Jr., Terry) 15 yards to the MISSOURI41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
42.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 19 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
42.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Ahmad Fulwood for 21 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.4%
Kelvin Taylor 1 Yd Run (Jorge Powell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:5039% → 38%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
38.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Terry Beckner Jr.) to the Misso 2Similar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
38.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 3Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+23
38.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 23 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
38.7%
Drew Lock sacked by Caleb Brantley for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
38.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Ish WitterSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+10
37.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 10 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
38.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 51 yds, downed at the Fla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2362% → 63%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
38.5%
Will Grier run for no gain to the Fla 14Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
37.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 7 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
37.3%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
37.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 53 yds , Cam Hilton returns for no gain to the Misso 21 FLORIDA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Chris Thompson) to the Misso 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4638% → 37%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
37.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 8 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
38.4%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
38.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 12 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
39.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Ray WingoSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
39.3%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
37.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
36.6%
Andrew Baggett 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:2764% → 65%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
35.9%
Will Grier pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 14 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
35.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 7 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
34.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
34.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 46Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 17
OPP 46
-5
35.3%
Will Grier sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 22
OWN 49
+4
34.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Chris Thompson for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
35.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 41 yds, downed at the Misso 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:2334% → 33%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
33.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Keyon Dilosa for 3 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+8
33.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Clayton Echard for 8 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
33.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
33.4%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Marcus Maye return for no gain to the Misso 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:2167% → 67%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
33.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 11 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
32.6%
Treon Harris run for 3 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
32.4%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-5
32.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Brandon Powell) to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+15
32.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 15 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
31.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
31.5%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
31.9%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
32.8%
Jorge Powell 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3532% → 29%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
31.9%
Drew Lock sacked by Joey Ivie and Bryan Cox for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 11Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 19
OWN 11
0
31.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+9
30.6%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+6
28.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 61 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 6 yds to the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:0471% → 74%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
29.3%
Will Grier pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 9 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
28.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 8 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
27.3%
Grier, Will pass complete to Taylor, Kelvin for no gain to the FLORIDA44, PENALTY MISSOURI offside (Brady, Walter) 5 yards to the FLORIDA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
27.4%
Will Grier pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 14 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
25.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 20 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1830% → 28%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
29.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
29.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q3 14:37
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
28.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q3 14:30
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
27.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2671% → 70%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
29.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-1
28.5%
Will Grier sacked by Terry Beckner Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 34Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
29.2%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus Robinson, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 8
OWN 34
-5
29.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Valdez Showers) to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
30.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3529% → 27%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
29.1%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
28.7%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+4
27.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to DeSean Blair for 4 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
27.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4872% → 73%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
27.8%
Will Grier sacked by Donavin Newsom for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+7
27.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 7 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+6
27.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 6 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4626% → 25%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
26.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Russell Hansbrough, broken up by Antonio MorrisonSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
25.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Chase Abbington for 5 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
25.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Chase AbbingtonSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
24.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1275% → 74%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
25.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 8 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 2
OWN 21
-1
24.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 20Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
25.3%
Will Grier pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
26.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1726% → 14%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
25.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
25.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+40
13.7%
Jalen Tabor 40 Yd Interception Return (Jorge Powell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0714% → 13%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
13.6%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+13
13.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 13 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
13.6%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 35Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
13.0%
Drew Lock run for 3 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+1
13.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 39Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
12.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4791% → 92%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
9.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
7.7%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
7.7%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
7.9%
Johnny Townsend punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:4312% → 11%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-17
12.2%
Drew Lock sacked by Cece Jefferson for a loss of 17 yards to the Misso 17 MISSOURI Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Drew Lock) to the Misso 17Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 27
OWN 17
+9
11.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 9 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 18
OWN 26
0
10.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate Brown, broken up by Marcus MayeSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 18
OWN 26
0
10.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 44 yds, downed at the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:4793% → 94%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
7.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 25 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
6.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
5.8%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Kelvin TaylorSimilar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+18
5.8%
Will Grier run for 18 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
5.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
5.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-2
5.1%
Will Grier sacked by Kentrell Brothers for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 8
OPP 23
-3
5.8%
Johnny Townsend sacked by Walter Brady for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:497% → 6%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
6.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Taylor Chappell) to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+7
6.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 7 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+26
6.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 26 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
6.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Ray WingoSimilar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
6.8%
Ish Witter run for 13 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
7.0%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
7.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jason Reese, broken up by Jalen TaborSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
6.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 6
OPP 29
0
6.4%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:3996% → 97%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
4.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 11 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
4.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
3.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 3 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+9
3.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 9 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
3.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
3.3%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+1
3.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
3.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:494% → 3%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
4.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 9 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+3
4.2%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
4.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 10 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
3.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
3.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 1 yd to the Misso 37Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
3.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley Leftwich, broken up by Quincy WilsonSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
2.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Vernon Hargreaves III at the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 4:1598% → 99%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
2.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
2.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
2.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
2.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-2
1.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
1.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
1.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
1.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 5 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
1.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+12
1.7%
Chase Abbington run for 12 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
1.7%
Tyler Hunt run for 5 yds to the Fla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:25
Jalen Tabor 40 Yd Interception Return (Jorge Powell Kick)
-11.6
SACK · Q3 2:58
Drew Lock sacked by Cece Jefferson for a loss of 17 yards to the Misso 17 MISSOURI Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Drew Lock) to the Misso 17
+4.3
TD · Q1 1:09
Kelvin Taylor 1 Yd Run (Jorge Powell Kick)
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com