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FLA

Florida 28 at LSU 35

LSU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:04 · Johnny Townsend punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior+6.9Home team on offense+7.2Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score differential+1.9Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:34: Jake McGee 19 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Austin Hardin Kick) — FLA win probability +11.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: Malachi Dupre 50 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick) — LSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:01: Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +10.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:04: Antonio Callaway 72 Yd Punt Return (Austin Hardin Kick) — FLA win probability +21.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 10:40: Trent Domingue 16 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick) — LSU win probability +20.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:19FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:13FLA 4th & 1 at LSU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:08LSU 4th & 5 at FLA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:32FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:12FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:15FLA 4th & 17 at FLA 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:11LSU 4th & 14 at LSU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:16FLA 4th & 1 at LSU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−1.7
    84% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:26LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:04FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:04LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 24, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:40LSU 4th & 13 at FLA 16, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.5 ptsWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%−5.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−19.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:47FLA 4th & 22 at LSU 35, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.1 ptsPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−3.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:47LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:26FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.2%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:33LSU 4th & 12 at FLA 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:13FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:23LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:00LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:24LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:34FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:15LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:01FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:04FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:40LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3128% → 28%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
72.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 11 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
72.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
72.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-1
72.1%
Brandon Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 3
OWN 43
-5
72.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 39 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 13 Tre'Davious White fumbled, recovered by Fla Nick WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:4728% → 30%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
71.6%
Treon Harris run for 5 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
71.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the LSU 8Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
71.4%
Treon Harris run for 4 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+4
69.9%
Jake McGee 4 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Jorge Powell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5270% → 69%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
70.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 11 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
70.2%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+6
69.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
69.6%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
69.1%
Jamie Keehn punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Vernon Hargreaves III at the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 5:2331% → 35%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
68.7%
Treon Harris run for 9 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 1
OWN 19
0
68.1%
Brandon Powell run for no gain to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
68.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
67.6%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 1 yd to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-3
67.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+16
67.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 16 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
66.0%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
66.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 7 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
65.4%
Treon Harris run for 2 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
65.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 4:5166% → 71%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
65.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Dillon Gordon for 8 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+10
65.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the LSU 30 Leonard Fournette fumbled, forced by Vernon Hargreaves III, recovered by LSU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
65.3%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+14
65.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 14 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
65.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 19 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
66.7%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
66.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+15
64.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 15 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
64.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 13 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
64.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the Fla 2Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.1%
Leonard Fournette 2 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5832% → 30%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
67.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
68.8%
Treon Harris sacked by Tashawn Bower and Lewis Neal for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+3
69.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 3 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+7
69.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 56 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 7 yds to the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 5:0370% → 78%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
70.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 3 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
70.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+25
70.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 25 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
72.4%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
72.2%
Brandon Harris run for 7 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-5
71.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Toby Weathersby) to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+15
71.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 15 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
72.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
72.0%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Fla 9Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
78.4%
Malachi Dupre 9 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:3223% → 21%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
77.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
77.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 6 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-13
77.9%
Treon Harris sacked by Lewis Neal for a loss of 13 yards to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
79.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 41 yds, downed at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:3179% → 86%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+52
78.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 52 yds to the Fla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
86.1%
Leonard Fournette 6 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:3115% → 27%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
84.7%
Treon Harris run for 12 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
84.5%
Treon Harris run for 1 yd to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+48
84.8%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 48 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
73.3%
Jake McGee 19 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Austin Hardin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:1277% → 86%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Caleb Brantley) to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
77.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
77.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 14 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
78.8%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+4
77.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 9
50
+50
87.0%
Malachi Dupre 50 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+15
86.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Caleb Brantley) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:4385% → 85%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
85.3%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (William Clapp) to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+10
85.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
85.5%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
85.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
84.6%
Jamie Keehn punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:0415% → 22%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
84.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 8 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+5
84.0%
Treon Harris run for 5 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
84.4%
Treon Harris pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 30 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
83.0%
Treon Harris sacked by Lewis Neal and Arden Key for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+17
84.4%
Treon Harris run for 17 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
84.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+11
84.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 11 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.7%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 0
OWN 3
-5
78.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2980% → 79%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.8%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
79.9%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
79.1%
Brandon Harris run for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
78.8%
Jamie Keehn punt for 42 yds, downed at the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1624% → 23%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.0%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
76.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+16
77.9%
Treon Harris pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 16 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
75.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Motion (Antonio Callaway) to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 16
OWN 32
+10
76.9%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 10 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
74.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
74.8%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
77.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5680% → 59%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
80.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-2
81.7%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+4
80.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Darrel Williams for 4 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+72
59.2%
Antonio Callaway 72 Yd Punt Return (Austin Hardin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2062% → 85%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
64.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
50
0
66.2%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
50
+5
65.3%
Brandon Harris run for 5 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+14
64.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 14 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
66.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+14
66.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 14 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
66.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
66.6%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-5
64.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Colin Jeter for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 16Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+16
85.2%
Trent Domingue 16 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:4318% → 12%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
81.6%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 18 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
79.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
78.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+2
77.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-14
77.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (David Sharpe) to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 24
OWN 39
+38
81.9%
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 38 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-12
77.0%
Treon Harris sacked by Deion Jones for a loss of 12 yards to the LSU 35 FLORIDA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Treon Harris) to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 22
OPP 35
0
79.9%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 22
OPP 35
0
85.8%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 22
OPP 35
0
87.9%
Johnny Townsend punt for 34 yds, downed at the LSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5389% → 92%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
88.6%
Brandon Harris run for 2 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
89.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+12
89.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 12 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
90.4%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+5
91.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
93.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
92.4%
Jamie Keehn punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1511% → 9%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.9%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
89.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
90.5%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
91.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4794% → 95%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
94.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-3
95.2%
Brandon Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 39 Brandon Harris fumbled, recovered by LSU Brandon HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+4
95.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 7
OPP 35
-5
95.2%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
95.1%
Jamie Keehn punt for 30 yds, downed at the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:257% → 7%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
92.9%
Treon Harris sacked by Lewis Neal for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 9Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 11
OWN 9
-1
93.7%
Treon Harris pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 8Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+41
94.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 41 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
91.6%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
92.0%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
92.5%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
93.5%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:04
Antonio Callaway 72 Yd Punt Return (Austin Hardin Kick)
-21.3
TD · Q4 10:40
Trent Domingue 16 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)
+20.4
TD · Q2 1:34
Jake McGee 19 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Austin Hardin Kick)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com