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MISS

Ole Miss 10 at Florida 38

FLA
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:10 · Johnny Townsend punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense+6.0Score differential+3.2Pregame prior−14.5Garbage-time factor+2.1Blowout margin−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:09: Demarcus Robinson 36 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell Kick) — FLA win probability +2.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:48: Jake McGee 2 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell PAT failed) — FLA win probability +4.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:53: Brandon Powell 77 Yd pass from Will Grier (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — FLA win probability +8.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:20: Antonio Callaway 15 Yd pass from Will Grier (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — FLA win probability +4.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:25: Gary Wunderlich 22 Yd Field Goal — MISS win probability +1.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:19FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:27MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:09MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 44, down 13
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:10FLA 4th & 8 at MISS 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:12MISS 4th & 4 at FLA 12, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:37FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:50MISS 4th & 25 at MISS 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:50MISS 4th & 4 at midfield, down 19
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:50MISS 4th & 7 at FLA 33, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:25MISS 4th & 5 at FLA 5, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:54FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 36, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:46FLA 4th & 4 at MISS 13, up 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:56MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:32FLA 4th & 4 at midfield, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:59MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 30, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:39FLA 4th & 5 at MISS 5, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:09FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:48FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:53FLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:20FLA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:20FLA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:04MISS Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3131% → 32%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
31.8%
Will Grier sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-6
32.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 57 yds , Carlos Davis returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4868% → 67%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
32.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-9
32.3%
Chad Kelly sacked by Jarrad Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 8Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 17
OWN 8
+3
32.8%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
33.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:1333% → 37%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
33.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 14 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
33.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
34.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
34.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 4 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
36.7%
Demarcus Robinson 36 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1864% → 64%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
35.8%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 28 Jaylen Walton fumbled, recovered by Fla Bryan Cox , return for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5137% → 43%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
37.0%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Kelvin TaylorSimilar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
37.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
37.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 5 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
38.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 11 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.6%
Jake McGee 2 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3360% → 57%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.5%
Markell Pack run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
40.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 10 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-19
40.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the Miss 19 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Miss Chad KellySimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 29
OWN 19
+6
42.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 6 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 23
OWN 25
+19
42.8%
Chad Kelly run for 19 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
43.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 29 yds, downed at the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:5446% → 50%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
45.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
46.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
47.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 16 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
48.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 13
50
-5
49.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (David Sharpe) to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 18
OWN 45
-6
49.7%
Will Grier sacked by D.J. Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 39 Will Grier fumbled, forced by D.J. Jones, recovered by Fla David Sharpe , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 24
OWN 39
+16
49.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 16 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
50.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8MISSED FG
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:4951% → 49%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+22
48.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 22 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
48.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 15 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
47.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 9 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
47.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Caleb Brantley) to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
47.8%
Chad Kelly run for 9 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+14
47.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 14 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
48.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 20Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
49.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+8
50.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 8 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
51.1%
Gary Wunderlich 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2955% → 56%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
55.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+6
55.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 6 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
56.3%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
55.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 46 yds, downed at the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:4046% → 41%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
53.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+12
53.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Hunter Thurley for 12 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-11
54.2%
Chad Kelly sacked by Taven Bryan for a loss of 11 yards to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 21
OWN 34
+10
56.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-9
56.6%
Chad Kelly sacked by Jarrad Davis and Jonathan Bullard for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 20
OWN 35
-5
58.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 25
OWN 30
+50
58.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 50 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:5160% → 69%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
59.9%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
60.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+77
68.5%
Brandon Powell 77 Yd pass from Will Grier (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 1:5433% → 31%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
66.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
67.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 9 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
66.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
67.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 12 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.3%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
68.4%
Chad Kelly run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 4
50
0
68.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 4
50
0
69.5%
Will Gleeson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 4:2074% → 89%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
73.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 12 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-6 Yards) to the Fla 6Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 13
OWN 6
+1
72.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+8
73.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 8 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+5
75.3%
Will Grier pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 5 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
79.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 4 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
81.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+13
81.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 13 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
84.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 16 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
84.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 5 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+8
84.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 8 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
85.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 12 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
84.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 3 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
88.8%
Antonio Callaway 15 Yd pass from Will Grier (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0319% → 14%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
86.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15FG
22 plays · 70 yds · 9:3012% → 7%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
88.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 11 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
88.9%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+15
88.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jonathan Bullard) to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
90.5%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
91.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 6 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
91.0%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
91.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 3 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+1
90.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-1
91.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+9
93.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 9 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
92.4%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+5
92.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
93.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 8 yds to the Fla 4Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 4
-2
93.4%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 6Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+5
94.2%
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds to the Fla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.9%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
94.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 3Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
95.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 5Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
93.5%
Gary Wunderlich 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:1695% → 97%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
94.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
95.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+9
95.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 9 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
96.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 3 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-3
97.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+39
97.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds , Carlos Davis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 35 FLORIDA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:283% → 4%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
96.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 16 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
96.5%
Chad Kelly run for 15 yds to the 45 yard line Chad Kelly fumbled, forced by Marcus Maye, recovered by Fla Alex McCalister , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:2498% → 99%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
50
+4
97.5%
Will Grier pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 4 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
97.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+10
97.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 10 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
98.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
98.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+6
98.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 6 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-1
98.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
99.3%
Jorge Powell 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
98.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
98.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 5 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
98.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+8
99.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 8 yds to the Fla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
99.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+9
99.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Ahmad Fulwood for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 4
50
0
99.4%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Ahmad FulwoodSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 4
50
0
99.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21INT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 5 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+9
99.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 9 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
99.5%
Chad Kelly run for 12 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+31
99.4%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Vernon Hargreaves III return for 36 yds to the FLORIDA 34 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (-5 Yards) to the Miss 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla Will Grier Will Grier run for 2 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 1 yd to the Miss 5Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
99.9%
Jorge Powell 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
99.9%
Chad Kelly sacked by Alex McCalister for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 1 Chad Kelly fumbled, recovered by Fla Cece Jefferson , return for 0 yards , return for 11 yds to the Miss 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jordan Cronkrite 1 Yd Run (Jorge Powell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 16 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+23
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Derrick Jones for 23 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Derrick Jones for 16 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 11 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Markell Pack 7 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
100.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+3
100.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+3
100.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:53
Brandon Powell 77 Yd pass from Will Grier (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+8.4
TD · Q2 0:20
Antonio Callaway 15 Yd pass from Will Grier (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+4.5
TD · Q1 6:48
Jake McGee 2 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell PAT failed)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com