Try the model
MIZ

Missouri 27 at Arkansas State 20

ARST
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:44 · Corey Fatony punt for 41 yds , Chris Murray returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior−27.7Home team on offense−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:08: Nate Brown 11 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick) — MIZ win probability +16.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:08: Tres Houston 5 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Drew White Kick) — ARST win probability +9.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:25: Wesley Leftwich 32 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick) — MIZ win probability +17.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:44: Sean Culkin 21 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick) — MIZ win probability +15.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 11:30: Drew White 40 Yd Field Goal — ARST win probability +7.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:14ARST 4th & 13 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:00MIZ 4th & 8 at ARST 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:51ARST 4th & 11 at MIZ 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:44MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48ARST 4th & 20 at MIZ 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:20ARST 4th & 1 at MIZ 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%−1.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:53ARST 4th & 3 at MIZ 3, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:33MIZ 4th & 22 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:07MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:41ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−3.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:22MIZ 4th & 17 at ARST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−2.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:45ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−3.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:12ARST 4th & 30 at ARST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−5.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:11ARST 4th & 8 at MIZ 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:30ARST 4th & 5 at MIZ 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−10.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:22MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−7.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:10MIZ 4th & 10 at ARST 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−12.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:01ARST 4th & 20 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:27MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:18ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:08MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:08ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:25MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:44MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:3618% → 19%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.0%
JD McKissic run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
18.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 9 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
18.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
18.4%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+19
18.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 19 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
18.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-6
18.7%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+3
19.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 13
50
0
19.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 23 yds, downed at the Misso 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:0081% → 79%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
19.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+6
19.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 6 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
19.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
19.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Clayton EchardSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+9
20.0%
Maty Mauk run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
50
0
19.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
50
+16
20.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 16 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
19.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 19 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
20.1%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+4
20.4%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
20.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
20.9%
Andrew Baggett 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:5921% → 22%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
21.0%
Michael Gordon run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
21.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 9 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+10
22.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 10 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
22.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
22.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-1
22.1%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
21.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 37 yds, downed at the Misso 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4578% → 76%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
22.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+1
22.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 5Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+14
23.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 14 yds to the Misso 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
22.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 3 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
23.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ish Witter for 2 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
23.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ish WitterSimilar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+2
23.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 41 yds , Chris Murray returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4223% → 24%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
23.4%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+13
23.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 13 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
24.5%
Johnston White run for 13 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
24.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
25.1%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-10
25.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 19
OPP 48
-1
24.3%
JD McKissic run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
23.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 38 yds, downed at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:0576% → 75%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
24.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to DeSean BlairSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
24.4%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 10Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+45
25.1%
Maty Mauk pass intercepted Bo Sentimore return for 45 yds to the Misso 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0227% → 31%
Q2 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
27.1%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
27.4%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 7Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
30.6%
Tres Houston 7 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Drew White Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:1372% → 72%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
27.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+19
28.5%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Chris Humes return for 19 yds to the Misso 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:5931% → 39%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
31.3%
Michael Gordon run for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+3
32.1%
JD McKissic run for 3 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.6%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
32.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 8 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
32.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
32.4%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
34.4%
Michael Gordon run for 18 yds to the Misso 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
34.9%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 3Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
36.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q2 7:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
39.0%
JD Houston 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:0362% → 57%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
38.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
38.3%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+12
38.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ray Wingo for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 33 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
37.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Misso 38Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 20
OWN 38
0
39.2%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+24
39.8%
Maty Mauk run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
38.0%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
38.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-5
38.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-9
40.5%
Maty Mauk sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line Maty Mauk fumbled, forced by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones, recovered by Misso Connor McGovern at the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 22
50
0
42.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
43.2%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted John Gibson return for 35 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
27.2%
Nate Brown 11 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
15 plays · 63 yds · 3:4034% → 49%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
34.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
36.0%
JD McKissic run for 5 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
36.8%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
36.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
37.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for 3 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
37.8%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
37.5%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
39.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
38.6%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+14
37.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
39.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.0%
Tres Houston 5 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Drew White Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
46.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3953% → 50%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
47.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
47.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
49.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
50.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 58 yds , Chris Murray returns for no gain to the ArkSt 20 Chris Murray fumbled, recovered by ArkStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0950% → 50%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
49.5%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
49.8%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+11
48.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 11 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
51.0%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+3
51.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
50.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 11
OWN 33
+12
49.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 47 yds , Aarion Penton returns for 12 yds to the Misso 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0350% → 46%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
50.2%
Maty Mauk run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
48.0%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+7
47.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 7 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
48.5%
Maty Mauk run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 44 Maty Mauk fumbled, recovered by Misso Maty MaukSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+1
50.8%
Maty Mauk run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 17
OPP 43
0
53.2%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
54.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Trosin at the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3355% → 56%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
54.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-5
54.7%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 15
OWN 1
+4
54.3%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 11
OWN 5
-2
55.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 55 yds , Aarion Penton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1447% → 67%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
52.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
53.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ish Witter for 6 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+14
52.6%
Ish Witter run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
51.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 9 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+1
49.6%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
32.6%
Wesley Leftwich 32 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -20 yds · 1:3845% → 40%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
44.8%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-9
43.2%
Dijon Paschal run for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 21
OWN 29
-9
40.3%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 30
OWN 20
0
39.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 45 yds, downed at the Misso 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1062% → 82%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
38.0%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+15
40.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
35.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+27
36.5%
Ish Witter run for 27 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
33.4%
Tyler Hunt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+2
33.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ish Witter for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+21
18.3%
Sean Culkin 21 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:0923% → 22%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
22.6%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+15
25.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.4%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
25.8%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+1
24.6%
James Tabary run for 1 yd to the Misso 44Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
22.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Aarion Penton at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0381% → 79%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
19.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 2 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
19.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 8
OWN 12
-6
20.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Sean Culkin) to the Misso 6Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 14
OWN 6
0
20.9%
Maty Mauk pass intercepted Rocky Hayes return for no gain to the Misso 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:1328% → 34%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
27.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
27.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+3
28.2%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-3
28.2%
Johnston White run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
26.3%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
33.5%
Drew White 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5874% → 72%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
26.4%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
25.9%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
27.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ish WitterSimilar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
28.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Tyler Trosin at the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3133% → 33%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
32.7%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
34.4%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
32.9%
James Tabary pass intercepted Kentrell Brothers return for no gain to the ArkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27FG
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:0578% → 84%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
21.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
21.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-4
21.5%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 32 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+19
22.5%
Maty Mauk run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
18.6%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
19.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
20.8%
Maty Mauk run for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
16.4%
Andrew Baggett 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:4320% → 17%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.5%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
18.8%
Warren Wand run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
19.9%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 23 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
23.3%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-3
22.9%
James Tabary pass complete to Michael Gordon for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 12
OPP 42
-8
20.3%
James Tabary sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 20
50
0
17.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aarion Penton at the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5189% → 94%
Q4 3:18
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+20
10.8%
Maty Mauk run for 20 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
9.4%
Morgan Steward run for 1 yd to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-1
8.6%
Maty Mauk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-1
5.9%
Morgan Steward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
6.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 60 yds, downed at the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:1011% → 11%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
10.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+9
10.6%
James Tabary pass intercepted Kentrell Brothers return for 9 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4096% → 96%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-1
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:25
Wesley Leftwich 32 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick)
-17
TD · Q2 4:08
Nate Brown 11 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick)
-16
TD · Q3 0:44
Sean Culkin 21 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick)
-15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com