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FLA

Florida 14 at Kentucky 9

UK
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:02 · Landon Foster punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense−1.4Pregame prior−7.9Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:14: Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +8.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:00: Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Fla 21 — UK win probability +5.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:57: Austin MacGinnis 45 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +7.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:06: Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds to the Kent 25 — UK win probability +10.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27: TEAM run for 36 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST down — FLA win probability +6.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 10 of 11FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:39FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:48FLA 4th & 1 at UK 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:04UK 4th & 10 at FLA 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−3.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:35FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:02UK 4th & 13 at UK 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:20FLA 4th & 15 at UK 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:45UK 4th & 15 at UK 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:31FLA 4th & 1 at UK 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−2.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:15UK 4th & 13 at UK 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:26FLA 4th & 24 at UK 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:05UK 4th & 9 at UK 3, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−2.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:00UK 4th & 2 at FLA 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−1.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−9.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50UK 4th & 5 at FLA 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−7.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:50FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 33, up 8
    Close callPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:57UK 4th & 14 at FLA 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−3.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−9.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:24FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 31, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−7.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:10UK 4th & 12 at UK 47, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:26FLA 4th & 3 at midfield, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−2.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:19UK 4th & 3 at UK 27, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.8%−4.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:33UK 4th & 27 at UK 30, down 5
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:48FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:14FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4561% → 60%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
39.3%
Will Grier run for 5 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
39.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
39.5%
Will Grier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+7
39.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 34 yds , Ryan Timmons returns for 7 yds to the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0040% → 41%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
39.9%
Patrick Towles run for 9 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
40.1%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+7
40.3%
Stanley Williams run for 7 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
40.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
40.7%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+53
40.7%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Vernon Hargreaves III return for 53 yds to the Kent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5560% → 62%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
39.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 11 yds to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
40.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Kent 3Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.4%
Will Grier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 6:1639% → 41%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.9%
Stanley Williams run for 9 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
39.3%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
39.0%
Patrick Towles sacked by Alex McCalister for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+10
38.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 10 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+13
38.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Mikel Horton for 13 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
39.7%
Mikel Horton run for 4 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+20
39.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 20 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
40.2%
Towles, Patrick pass incomplete to Bone, Blake, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Asafo-Adjei, George) 10 yards to the FLORIDA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+1
40.0%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+5
39.7%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+17
39.1%
Stanley Williams run for 17 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
40.4%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Fla 11Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
40.6%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Fla 11Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
39.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
41.4%
Austin MacGinnis 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5059% → 58%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
41.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+6
41.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 1 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Fla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
41.1%
Will Grier sacked by Regie Meant for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 12
0
41.4%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Valdez ShowersSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+8
42.0%
Will Grier run for 8 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
42.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0343% → 41%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
42.9%
Patrick Towles sacked by Jonathan Bullard for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+5
41.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+1
41.6%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
41.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
40.5%
Landon Foster punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:1059% → 59%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+34
41.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 34 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
50
+6
39.7%
Will Grier run for 6 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
39.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
39.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
39.7%
Will Grier run for 13 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
38.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 9 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
38.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 2 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
38.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Fred Johnson) to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+5
37.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 5 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
37.7%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
38.8%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 10
OPP 12
-5
40.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+34
41.2%
Austin Hardin 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by C.J. ConradSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3041% → 39%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
40.7%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
40.7%
Mikel Horton run for 4 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-10
39.6%
Patrick Towles sacked by Keanu Neal for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
38.5%
Landon Foster punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
15 plays · 57 yds · 4:5862% → 76%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
37.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
38.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Ahmad Fulwood for 9 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
37.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
36.8%
Will Grier run for 7 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
35.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-5
35.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+7
35.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 7 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+6
37.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
35.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 18 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
34.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 10 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0428% → 30%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
27.9%
Stanley Williams run for 23 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
29.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:3428% → 26%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
28.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
28.1%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-5
26.9%
Patrick Towles sacked by Caleb Brantley and Cece Jefferson for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+5
26.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 8
OWN 25
-5
26.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+37
26.1%
Landon Foster punt for 45 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 37 yds to the Kent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:3974% → 73%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
26.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
25.9%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-5
26.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Fred Johnson) to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 15
OPP 33
-4
26.2%
Will Grier sacked by Jabari Johnson and Cory Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 37Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 19
OPP 37
-5
27.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 24
OPP 42
0
27.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 40 yds, downed at the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5526% → 23%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
26.3%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 7Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 7
0
25.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 5
OWN 7
-2
24.0%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 5Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 7
OWN 5
-2
23.3%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Delay of Game (-2 Yards) to the Kent 3Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
23.1%
Landon Foster punt for 41 yds, downed at the Kent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14INT
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:3276% → 80%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
24.1%
Antonio Callaway run for 9 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+4
22.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
21.8%
Will Grier run for 5 yds to the Kent 26 Will Grier fumbled, forced by Denzil Ware, recovered by Fla Will GrierSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
21.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
21.0%
Will Grier run for 8 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+7
20.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 7 yds to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
20.5%
Will Grier pass intercepted, touchback. J.D. Harmon return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0024% → 26%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
23.6%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 21Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
23.5%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 21Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+33
21.9%
Patrick Towles run for 33 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
25.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
26.4%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
26.2%
Mikel Horton run for 5 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+11
24.6%
Jojo Kemp run for 11 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
26.1%
Jojo Kemp run for 9 yds to the Fla 4Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 1
OPP 4
-1
25.9%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 5Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
24.0%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Fla 5Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+3
21.7%
Mikel Horton run for 3 yds to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for no gain to the Fla 2Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
24.8%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 5Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
23.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
25.8%
Austin MacGinnis 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4678% → 80%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Valdez Showers for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
21.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
19.3%
Will Grier run for 4 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
19.9%
Johnny Townsend punt for 36 yds, downed at the Kent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17FG
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:2922% → 32%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+45
22.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 45 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
27.4%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
27.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-7
25.3%
Patrick Towles sacked by Alex McCalister for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
32.2%
Austin MacGinnis 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:0372% → 70%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
27.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
26.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Ahmad Fulwood for 7 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.0%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
26.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
26.5%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 8
OWN 37
-6
29.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-6 Yards) to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+2
29.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 49 yds , Ryan Timmons returns for 2 yds to the Kent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0034% → 27%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
33.9%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 22Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
33.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+13
29.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 13 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
31.9%
Stanley Williams run for 14 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
33.9%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
31.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
29.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
26.9%
Landon Foster punt for 34 yds, downed at the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2877% → 86%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
22.9%
Will Grier run for 12 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
19.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+7
17.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 7 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
16.8%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
16.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Fla 43Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+7
14.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 3
50
0
13.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21INT
10 plays · 10 yds · 1:3325% → 13%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
24.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
24.2%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
20.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+20
17.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 20 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
21.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
20.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-12
18.1%
Patrick Towles sacked by Jonathan Bullard for a loss of 12 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 22
OWN 35
-5
13.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Cole Mosier) to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 27
OWN 30
+11
12.5%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Quincy Wilson return for 11 yds to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:2694% → 96%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
5.8%
TEAM run for 36 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
4.3%
TEAM run for 4 yds to the Kent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:06
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds to the Kent 25
+10.9
TD · Q2 0:14
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)
-8.9
FG · Q4 10:57
Austin MacGinnis 45 yd FG GOOD
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com