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TENN

Tennessee 27 at Florida 28

FLA
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:25 · Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 10 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense−28.6Garbage-time factor−12.5Score differential−9.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.6Pregame prior+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 11:07: Aaron Medley 37 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +9.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:42: Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jorge Powell KICK) — FLA win probability +20.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 10:19: Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +16.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:09: Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 5 yds for a TD, (Jorge Powell KICK) — FLA win probability +18.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 1:26: Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 63 yds for a TD, (Jorge Powell KICK) — FLA win probability +50.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 12TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:51TENN 4th & 16 at TENN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:23TENN 4th & 21 at TENN 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:07FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:20TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:24FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:44TENN 4th & 2 at FLA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:35FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.8%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:35FLA 4th & 10 at TENN 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:13TENN 4th & 2 at FLA 16, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:13TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:07TENN 4th & 2 at FLA 19, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%−1.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:07FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:12FLA 4th & 6 at TENN 25, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−5.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:42TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:56FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−3.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:25FLA 4th & 7 at TENN 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:25FLA 4th & 8 at TENN 21, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−4.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:19TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−4.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:26FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.5%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:23FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:07TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:18TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:42FLA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:19TENN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:09FLA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:26FLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−7.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Will Grier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
51.8%
Will Grier run for 1 yd to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
51.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 61 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 5 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
51.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 16 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
51.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
51.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-10
51.9%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Antonio Morrison for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 24Similar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+2
52.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 48 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 2 yds to the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:4152% → 55%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
52.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 15 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+47
52.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 47 yds to the Tenn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
52.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Tenn 5Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jorge Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
53.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
53.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
53.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 5 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
53.6%
Alvin Kamara run for 6 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
53.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin Kamara, broken up by Brian PooleSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
53.7%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-8
54.1%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Alex McCalister for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 36Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
54.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
56.3%
Brandon Powell run for 7 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 3
OWN 20
0
56.3%
Will Grier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
56.0%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+16
55.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 16 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
52.1%
Jauan Jennings pass complete to Joshua Dobbs for 58 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
53.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 10 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
53.1%
Will Grier sacked by Jalen Reeves-Maybin for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+12
52.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 12 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
53.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
53.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
52.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 7 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+10
52.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
52.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 1 yd to the Tenn 38Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
52.1%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
52.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+4
53.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 6 , Antonio Callaway returns for 4 yds to the Fla 44 FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) to the Fla 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:5754% → 54%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
53.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 9 FLORIDA Penalty, illegal cut ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+6
53.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+2
53.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
53.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 9 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+10
54.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 10 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
54.4%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
54.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 7 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-1
54.9%
Will Grier run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
53.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 42 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for no gain to the Tenn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:2647% → 59%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+29
52.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 29 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
50.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
50.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-1
50.4%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 47Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+24
51.7%
Alvin Kamara pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 24 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
49.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 17 yds to the Fla 6 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, forced by Keanu Neal, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
49.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alex Ellis for 5 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 1:4344% → 43%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
43.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 12 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.4%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio Callaway, broken up by Malik ForemanSimilar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
44.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+10
43.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 10 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+13
43.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 13 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
45.5%
Alvin Bailey pass incomplete to Kelvin TaylorSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
45.2%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
43.8%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
42.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FG
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2657% → 62%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
42.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+62
42.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 62 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
39.5%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Fla 24Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
39.8%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Fla 24Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+8
40.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
38.0%
Aaron Medley 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0038% → 40%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
38.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 17 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
39.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+7
40.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 7 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
40.2%
Will Grier run for 1 yd to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-1
40.1%
Will Grier pass intercepted LaDarrell McNeil return for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:0463% → 63%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
37.3%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 6Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+4
36.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+2
37.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
36.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 32 , Antonio Callaway returns for no gain to the Fla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
33.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:5364% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
35.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 21 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
34.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jonathan Bullard) to the Fla 49Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+7
34.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
34.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+4
34.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+9
34.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 9 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
33.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
34.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alex EllisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+7
34.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 7 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
25.6%
Aaron Medley 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
29.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+6
29.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 6 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+5
29.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-9
29.7%
Will Grier sacked by Darrin Kirkland Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+12
29.4%
Will Grier run for 12 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-2
28.9%
Will Grier sacked by Kyle Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
28.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 43 yds, downed at the Tenn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
22.8%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 12
OWN 31
-2
23.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 29 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, forced by Bryan Cox, recovered by Fla Bryan CoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1930% → 48%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
30.2%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
29.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
28.5%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+21
27.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 21 yds to the Tenn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jorge Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0065% → 61%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
35.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Tenn 41Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-4
35.8%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Jonathan Bullard for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 13
OWN 37
+12
39.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 45 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 12 yds to the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
40.7%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
40.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
38.7%
Will Grier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+22
38.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 61 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 22 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22TD
18 plays · 70 yds · 7:2666% → 92%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
34.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
33.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
32.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
32.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
32.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
30.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
29.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
29.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
29.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 14 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, illegal block (Josh Smith) to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
29.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive offside (Caleb Brantley) to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+7
28.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
28.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-1
28.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-5
25.6%
Dobbs, J. deep pass complete to Pearson, V. for 22 yards to the UF0, clock 11:11, PENALTY UT ineligible downfield on pass (Thomas, C.) 5 yards to the UF27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+17
26.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 17 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
24.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
24.5%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Fla 10Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
8.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23TD
19 plays · 86 yds · 6:1015% → 31%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
14.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 6 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+1
15.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+11
14.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 11 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
15.6%
Will Grier pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 6 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+14
16.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 14 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
17.0%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
16.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+3
15.8%
Will Grier run for 3 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+10
8.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 10 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
11.6%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
11.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 12 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
12.1%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus Robinson FLORIDA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
11.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 2 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
10.5%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Brandon Powell, broken up by Malik ForemanSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+16
9.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 16 yds to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
12.1%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Antonio Callaway, broken up by Emmanuel MoseleySimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 5 yds for a TD, (Jorge Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5083% → 85%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
16.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+2
16.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-4
13.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 15Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+12
14.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 56 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 12 yds to the Fla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 0:5225% → 71%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
25.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 37Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
21.4%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
20.5%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+63
71.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 63 yds for a TD, (Jorge Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26MISSED FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 1:2637% → 28%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
63.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Cody Blanc for 10 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
60.7%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Kyler Kerbyson) to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+19
68.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 19 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
57.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Fla 36 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, forced by Marcus Maye,Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
56.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 4 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
63.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Fla 37Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+55
72.1%
Aaron Medley 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:26
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 63 yds for a TD, (Jorge Powell KICK)
+50.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+27.9
TD · Q3 5:42
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jorge Powell KICK)
+20.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com