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NMSU

New Mexico State 13 at Florida 61

FLA
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:34 · Greg Hutchins punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLORIDA 44 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Fla 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+14.6Home team on offense+36.5Score differential+30.1Garbage-time factor+8.9Blowout margin+17.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:59: Will Grier pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 12 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:28: Larry Rose III run for 8 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:17: Will Grier run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:46: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 31 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED) — NMSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:24: Will Grier pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 32 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin PAT BLOCKED) — FLA win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:52NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:21NMSU 4th & 7 at FLA 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−<0.1
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:06NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:32NMSU 4th & 3 at FLA 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:19NMSU 4th & 1 at FLA 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:46NMSU 4th & 6 at FLA 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 27 at NMSU 8, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:25FLA 4th & 2 at NMSU 16, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:31NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 21, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:44FLA 4th & 6 at NMSU 19, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:44NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 34, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00FLA 4th & 3 at NMSU 33, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:34NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 22, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:23FLA 4th & 6 at NMSU 6, up 41
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:23NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:21FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:06FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:59FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:28NMSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:17FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:46NMSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:24FLA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:31FLA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:34FLA Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:23FLA Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
98.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+6
98.5%
Treon Harris run for 6 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-13
98.5%
Team run for a loss of 13 yards to the Fla 22 Team fumbled, recovered by Fla Treon HarrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 22
+3
98.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 3 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+9
98.5%
Treon Harris run for 9 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
98.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Teldrick Morgan at the NMxSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrain Taylor, broken up by Jalen TaborSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
98.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
98.2%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
98.2%
Anthony Torres punt for 34 yds , Alvin Bailey returns for no gain to the Fla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 2:0298% → 98%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
98.0%
Antonio Callaway run for 8 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
98.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+18
98.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
98.0%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 37 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.0%
Teldrick Morgan run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
97.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
97.9%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
97.9%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
97.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 8 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
97.9%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the Fla 39Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
97.9%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
97.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 3 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
97.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Jalen TaborSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
98.0%
Tyler Rogers punt for 22 yds, downed at the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 4:3498% → 98%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
97.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+11
97.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Valdez Showers for 11 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
97.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 36Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+5
97.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 5 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+43
97.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for 43 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
97.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 7 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
97.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.5%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
97.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
97.5%
Anthony Torres punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:3798% → 99%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
50
0
97.7%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Valdez ShowersSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
50
+9
97.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+6
97.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
97.7%
Will Grier pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 23 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.6%
Will Grier pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 12 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:272% → 2%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.4%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+30
98.4%
Larry Rose III run for 30 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
98.3%
Orryn Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
98.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Brian PooleSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+8
98.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+2
98.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
98.8%
Will Grier sacked by Terrill Hanks for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 18 Will Grier fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Jacob Banegas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:512% → 3%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
98.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
98.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 4 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+5
98.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 5 yds to the Fla 9Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+1
98.4%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the Fla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.6%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:1197% → 99%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
97.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+38
97.1%
Will Grier run for 38 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
97.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Vernon Hargreaves III for 6 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
97.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+23
97.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 23 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.9%
Will Grier run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:312% → 3%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 40 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
98.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 4 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
98.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrain Taylor NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+31
96.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 31 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2297% → 99%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 14 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.5%
Will Grier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-2
97.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+13
97.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Brandon Powell for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
50
+9
97.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+9
97.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
98.9%
Will Grier pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 32 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.5%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
98.5%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Jonathan Bullard for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-9
98.5%
Morgan, T rush over left end for 1 yard to the NMSU20, out-of-bounds (Wilson,Q.), PENALTY NMSU CIT (Atencio, Ty) 9 yards to the NMSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 10
-2
98.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 27
OWN 8
0
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 27
OWN 8
+11
98.5%
Anthony Torres punt for 45 yds , Vernon Hargreaves III returns for 11 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:3899% → 99%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
98.8%
Will Grier pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 2 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+11
98.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Jake McGee for 11 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
98.8%
Demarcus Robinson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
98.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+2
98.8%
Will Grier run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
98.8%
Austin Hardin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
98.8%
Teldrick Morgan pass intercepted Vernon Hargreaves III return for 43 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:3699% → 100%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Antonio Callaway for no gain to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+17
99.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Alvin Bailey for 17 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
99.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 5 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose III, broken up by Cece JeffersonSimilar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-8
99.8%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Justus Reed for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Vernon Hargreaves III at the Fla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+11
99.9%
Treon Harris pass complete to C.J. Worton for 11 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Valdez ShowersSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+13
99.9%
Treon Harris pass complete to Valdez Showers for 13 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Jake McGee, broken up by Dalton HerringtonSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
99.9%
Austin Hardin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Greg Hutchins punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Vernon Hargreaves III at the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:26100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Treon Harris run for 4 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 9 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
99.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
Treon Harris pass complete to C.J. Worton for 6 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.9%
Case Harrison run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Case Harrison run for no gain to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+25
99.9%
Treon Harris pass complete to Josh Grady for 25 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
100.0%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xavier HallSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Justus Reed for 0 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+34
100.0%
Greg Hutchins punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLORIDA 44 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Fla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:43100% → 100%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
100.0%
Treon Harris pass complete to Mark Herndon for 9 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+12
100.0%
Mark Herndon run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
100.0%
Treon Harris pass complete to Alvin Bailey for 26 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
100.0%
Mark Herndon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
100.0%
Treon Harris run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
100.0%
Treon Harris run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Treon Harris pass complete to C.J. Worton for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Orryn ClarkSimilar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+19
100.0%
Greg Hutchins punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 38 , Antonio Callaway returns for 19 yds to the Fla 48 FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
100.0%
Josh Grady run for 7 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+14
100.0%
Josh Grady run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
100.0%
Case Harrison run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+1
100.0%
Case Harrison run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
100.0%
Josh Grady pass complete to Roger Dixon for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
100.0%
Case Harrison run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:46
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 31 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED)
-1.8
TD · Q2 6:28
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-1.7
TD · Q2 3:17
Will Grier run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com